Can Illini still get double bye IF they win???
Lots of tie-breakers given by loyal fans, BUT what are the best scenarios ???
Lots of tie-breakers given by loyal fans, BUT what are the best scenarios ???
Bracketology
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I think tonight's win has locked us into no worse than a 9 seed, most likely an 8 with a win against Purdue or the Big 10 Tournament. And an outside chance at a 7 with a combination of the two.
No way I'm rooting for Indiana to lose. Michigan is on the ropes. Finish them!
scUM is out. They needed 2 regular season wins.
55 in NET 3-10 quad 1 plus a quad 4 loss
I don’t see them getting in now regardless of the BTT
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Looks to me like we still have a shot at 2nd place -- so that would be our best case scenario.
A 12-8 conference tie with Michigan (against whom we're 1-0) and/or NW (against whom we're 1-1) would be ideal.
MSU appears to be playing only 19 games so if we beat Purdue, we automatically end the season ahead of the Spartans, who might end up 11-8.
A 12-8 conference tie with Michigan (against whom we're 1-0) and/or NW (against whom we're 1-1) would be ideal.
MSU appears to be playing only 19 games so if we beat Purdue, we automatically end the season ahead of the Spartans, who might end up 11-8.
We have thought that before though and they always seem to get the benefit of the doubt.
Yes. The odds are actually pretty good. An IL win, a NW win and a loss by any one of IA, IN, MD.
If you give each of them an 80% chance to win, it is 50% that at least one loses.
If you give each of them a 70% chance to win, it is 65% that at least one loses.
If NW loses to RU, then the tie breakers get really ugly for IL, and we likely get a 5/6 seed.
Pretty sure for that to happen we'd need all of Iowa, Indiana, and Maryland to lose (and to beat Purdue, of course).
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
Yeah, the way I guessed this to play out...Illinois is still an 8 seed in the BTT.
We actually still have a path to the 2 seed in the BTT.
We'd need to win @Purdue along with the following:
Maryland to lose @PSU
Indiana to lose vMichigan
Iowa to lose vNebraska
Northwestern game is free for us as they lost twice to Michigan so a three way tie with them and Michigan would still give us the 2 seed off of tiebreaks.
That said, there's also a path for us being a 9 seed, so a heck of a lot of craziness with only 1 game to go. Generally I love doing probability tables for BTT seeding, but this year it's just way way way too much work and math.
We'd need to win @Purdue along with the following:
Maryland to lose @PSU
Indiana to lose vMichigan
Iowa to lose vNebraska
Northwestern game is free for us as they lost twice to Michigan so a three way tie with them and Michigan would still give us the 2 seed off of tiebreaks.
That said, there's also a path for us being a 9 seed, so a heck of a lot of craziness with only 1 game to go. Generally I love doing probability tables for BTT seeding, but this year it's just way way way too much work and math.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
The quad 4 loss is a noose around their neck, but if they win in Bloomington and then make a run to the B1G Championship Game, they still might have a case for the tourney. They would in theory have a couple good wins in the B1G Tourney by making the B1G Championship Game. They were in the first 4 out in many brackets, so I still think they have a path to last 4 in (short of winning B1G tourney), albeit a very slim path.
Rutgers is definitely starting to work their way back towards the bubble. The next week and a half of B1G play will be madness!
The win tonight did well to get some people away from the ledge. We are not in danger of missing the dance.
Not any more. The potential of losing 4 in a row to end the season (@OSU, MI, @PU, BTT)....would have put us in Rutgers territory. Didn't want to be there.
Everyone in the conference has one game and we could still technically be the 2 seed or the 9 seed in the big ten tournament. What the heck is going on.
My brain just exploded.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Mine too, lol. Just give me those late start times so we can pack the house and I can attend, I don’t care who we play!
Is Michigan's fate sealed as it relates to the tournament? Outside of winning the tournament outright, do they have a chance if they win their last game and make a good showing in the B1G tourney? I feel like them being selected for the play in game if they have a good showing, but feel like it's only because of the name Michigan carries (I can see UNC getting in as well by name alone)
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Win 2 and we’re a 7?
Can be Purdue + 1 BTT or 2 BTT?
Can be Purdue + 1 BTT or 2 BTT?
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
I definitely think they still have a shot, even without winning BTT. If they win at IU and win 1 in the BTT, they're in IMO. The Michigan name will carry them. This loss doesn't sink their hopes by any means.
However, winning at IU is no easy feat (despite how Iowa made it look 2 days ago...)
Here's how the Illinois game Sunday affects things: win and they get a 2 to 6 seed. Lose and they get a 6 to 9 seed.
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