Zorak
- Naperville
This kind of stuff drives me crazy. Samford is 74 in the NET and 80 in KenPom. If we can't beat them we have no business being in the second round.
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Bracketology
- Status
I look at how much passing we do, and I think Houston would eat that up. A big part of their #1 defensive rating is how well they disrupt passing lanes and use their length. I feel like we push more difficult passes and more cross-court passing than most teams.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
The first (up to) four teams from any conference in the 1-4 seed range will be placed in different regions. Right now there are 4 from the Big XII: Houston (1), Iowa St. (2), Baylor (3), Kansas (3).
If we stay a 4 seed that won't have a big impact on us. But if we jumped to a 3, or Baylor/Kansas joined us as a 4, it would tend to make use more likely to be in a region with Iowa State (2) or Houston (1).
madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
- Millywaukee
True my friend!! I just get caught up this time of year. March is the best, baby!
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Math is hard.
I don't know how you come to this conclusion. They very well could fall especially if they lose big and they definitely aren't going to rise unless they pull off some upsets.
My bad. Meant Davis who is better than Love.
Have to support Illinois alumni.
thegamingjuice.com
FMP
thegamingjuice.com
The committee takes injuries into account in seeding. They discount losses that occur without a team’s star player and can adjust seeds lower if they learn a star player would be unavailable for the tournament. I’m assuming Kansas would let the committee know they expect Dickinson and McCullar back for the national tournament.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If Kansas loses in their first game in the Big 12 tourney, they will not rise past any of the teams in front of them. Sure the committee takes injuries into account, but they also need to take into account their full body of work (and Kansas has trended down recently). While both Dickinson and McCullar will be "available" next week, they will probably be far from full strength. Kansas might have a quad 1 opportunity tomorrow if Cincy wins today, but if West Virginia wins, it becomes a Quad 3 game. There is the potential for a second Quad 3 loss for Kansas. If that happens, they could easily slip to a 5 seed depending on teams around them in rankings, IMO.
UPDATE: So Cincy won. Tomorrow is Quad 1 game for Kansas. If Kansas loses, I think they have a ceiling of 4 seed.
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If this is true the committee needs to take into account that we lost 2 games in a 5 game stretch when our best player was out. If our best player plays all year we likely go 25-6 in the regular season. In addition, we didn't lose back to back games all year, nor did we lose by double digits all year. I honestly have no idea, but I'm guessing not many teams have that on the resume.
If we get to the Big Ten title game, or better yet win it, with our record and taking into account the facts listed above, we look like a 2 seed. I know this likely won't happen b/c of east coast and blue blood bias, but all of these facts SHOULD be taken into account. Not saying they will be but they should be.
All of this being said, at the end of the day we'll have to beat the best to be the best so go ahead and throw whatever seed you want at us. I think we have some seniors that aren't ready to be done playing and one in particular (Co-Hawk) with a big chip on his shoulder for not getting the recognition he deserved in the all-conference award voting. Couple that with Dain hitting his stride and Nico back healthy we are once again really deep and that could payoff come tournament time! A little extra breather here and there for the starters and an ability to keep guys out of foul trouble with a deep bench could be a difference maker! ILL
Edit: I just looked up the top 6 teams and Houston lost two games in a row and by double digits; UConn lost by double digits; Purdue lost by double digits; NC both lost back to back and by double digits; Tennessee same as NC; Arizona lost by double digits twice. Quite the feat for Illinois to not lost a single game by double digits and not lose back to back when you lost your star player for 5 games and you had a scheduled that included FAU, Purdue (2) twice, Marquette, Tennessee, and tough road venues like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Mich. St.
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IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
not to mention 'lazy' passes
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
True, but sandwiched between Penn State and Indiana it's a lesson that these 13 seeds are credible teams, not a home nonconference cupcake situation.
McNeese State in particular will be a hot upset pick if they get matched up with the likes of us or Bama.
Jerry Palm on CBS has six Big Ten teams in the tourney and four of them (Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan St. and Wisconsin) are in the same region, the other two are together in a different region, (Purdue and Nebraska). I don't think he is going to be correct.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Probably not, but at a quick glance his bracket wouldn't violate any of the placement rules unless we played MSU in the BTT championship game.
What I like less about it is Spokane + Auburn as our 5 seed. No thank you to both.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I have come to believe he is a bit of a chump, haha...
Some conference tournament games to keep an eye on tonight are below. Using Bracket Matrix for the seeds and NET Rankings for the numbers. The team of interest is in bold:
#3 SEEDS
#43 Cincinnati vs. #18 Kansas ... While only a Quad 1 loss (i.e., not too bad), seeing KU go down and pick up its 10th loss might just open the door for us. They are currently the last #3 seed.
#5 SEEDS
#60 UCF vs. #12 BYU ... Would be nice to see BYU get a Quad 2 loss with the impressive NET Ranking that they have (equivalent in theory to a #3 seed). We don't need them going on a run!
#91 Boston College vs. #26 Clemson ... Not sure how much we should really be worrying about #5 seeds if we have legitimate Sweet Sixteen goals, but these teams are still theoretically right behind us.
NON-TOURNAMENT TEAMS
#102 Rutgers vs. #77 Maryland ... Neither of these teams are making the Tournament, but Maryland's NET Ranking has a disproportionate effect on the quality of our resume, at least on paper. If Maryland remains outside of the top 75, we have a decent Quad 2 win vs. them and a bad Quad 3 loss vs. them. If they climb back in to the top 75, we all of a sudden have a good Quad 1 win vs. them and a "no big deal" Quad 2 loss to them while our star was out. Beating RU might get the Terps back in the top 75, but if they can also beat a struggling Wisconsin team on Friday ... I think that DEFINITELY does the trick. Root for the Terps!
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I think I'd rather have BYU win this round. Don't want them to slide down to a 6 seed in case we grab a 3. Minor considerations in the grand scheme, but hey, gotta root for something!
Nobody should want any piece of McNeese
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
Every B1G team, besides Purdue (2 vs 3), is underrated on NET compared to Kenpom. Because of this the conference misses out on 2 more Q1 opportunities in conference. Maryland would be no where near the Q3 range either (77 NET vs 59 Kenpom).
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Nobody says they are. Remember the 13 seed we barely squeezed by with the 22 Kofi team? It was not a cupcake but let’s say it’s doable. Definitely better than the 5 seeds/12 seeds pairs.
Illinois 88, the Cowboys 72.
McNeese is one of those teams that everyone is going to pick as a popular upset because of their gaudy record but I think there are better teams on that seed line that are more dangerous.
With that being said, McNeese has a bunch of dawgs.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Gaudy record, the brand name of Will Wade as coach, and a stronger Kenpom than the other 13's and most of the 12's.
They really ought to be a 12. Honestly I often think there's a case for making this kind of team an 11 ahead of at-large teams even if they wouldn't be an at-large selection on their own merits. Grand Canyon and James Madison also in that category.
These are famous last words of course. If we play badly, the Vermont's and Samford's can and will beat us. But fairness in seeding is important.
- Status