Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS
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danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Iowa State's defensive fingerprint is very similar to Duquesne's. Both teams force poor shooting and turnovers, but concede a lot of offensive rebounds and free throws. Given how the last game went, that makes me optimistic. Rutgers, Nebraska, and Penn State to a lesser extent are B1G teams with this sort of defensive fingerprint, and that also seems good - our one loss to that group was a pretty fluky late collapse on the road that I would say had more to do with giving up 90 points than with our offense.
Offensively, they are pretty balanced, similar to Duquesne, but take care of the ball much better - so we likely won't have as many fast break opportunities on TOs.
Iowa State (Left - O; Right - D):
Duquesne (Left - O; Right - D):
Distribution-wise, one difference is how they deal with threes on defense. Iowa State lets teams shoot a high percentage of shots from deep, and (probably related to this and their high pressure style) also gives up a high % of assists on made baskets. Duquesne was more balanced in that regard. So we can probably count on a tougher time getting to the hoop. Remember that these are proportional numbers; so it doesn't mean that Iowa State gives up tons of points from three, just that of the points they do give up, more are from three than for many other teams.
Offensively, they have a high assist rate, indicating either good passing, poor 1-on-1 shot creation, or both. But what also stands out is that they are not at all dependent on the deep ball; they are "low-low" in the framework I laid out last week. They don't shoot a ton of threes, and they're pretty average when they do. So I would hope that while we challenge aggressively and limit open looks, we don't sell out so hard that it leaves easy access to the paint.
Iowa State (Left - O; Right - D):
Duquesne (Left - O; Right - D):
Offensively, they are pretty balanced, similar to Duquesne, but take care of the ball much better - so we likely won't have as many fast break opportunities on TOs.
Iowa State (Left - O; Right - D):
Duquesne (Left - O; Right - D):
Distribution-wise, one difference is how they deal with threes on defense. Iowa State lets teams shoot a high percentage of shots from deep, and (probably related to this and their high pressure style) also gives up a high % of assists on made baskets. Duquesne was more balanced in that regard. So we can probably count on a tougher time getting to the hoop. Remember that these are proportional numbers; so it doesn't mean that Iowa State gives up tons of points from three, just that of the points they do give up, more are from three than for many other teams.
Offensively, they have a high assist rate, indicating either good passing, poor 1-on-1 shot creation, or both. But what also stands out is that they are not at all dependent on the deep ball; they are "low-low" in the framework I laid out last week. They don't shoot a ton of threes, and they're pretty average when they do. So I would hope that while we challenge aggressively and limit open looks, we don't sell out so hard that it leaves easy access to the paint.
Iowa State (Left - O; Right - D):
Duquesne (Left - O; Right - D):
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Raphael Davis said he doesn't think Iowa State can score enough to keep up with us, and I tend to believe that.
Illinois has only scored under 70 in a game three times this season, going 1-2 in those games. And not since the return of Terrence.
Illinois has only scored under 70 in a game three times this season, going 1-2 in those games. And not since the return of Terrence.
I'm out on the east coast for vacation and GD a 10pm EST game start is so harsh.
There are 2 west coast games at the same venue. They can't both be the late slot.
People were saying we were similar in style to BYU. Obviously a better team then them.
ISU split with them and was terrified of being matched up with BYU.
ISU split with them and was terrified of being matched up with BYU.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
And that split involved a home win by 5 and a road loss by 15 -- net margin of -5 per game.
ISU would be our best win of the year, full stop.
That being said, we were within striking distance and/or winning in games against Purdue/tenn/marquette. Stay hot and we’re absolutely capable of winning.
That being said, we were within striking distance and/or winning in games against Purdue/tenn/marquette. Stay hot and we’re absolutely capable of winning.
I like this matchup a lot. Iowa St will want to slow us down, and put us in the half court. I expect to see some token press which this team has beat consistently since the Penn St debacle.
They trap anything at or towards the baseline which is where our half court offense thrives. Try to send a second guy, and good night. There are so many good passers on this team that if we remain patient, we’ll get open looks like we have against that strategy all season. Their guards are fairly small too, so that makes passing out of traps less difficult.
Lipsey is good at scraping out drives ala Ace Baldwin, but they don’t have anyone physical enough to single-handedly slow down Shannon. Gilbert is rail thin and long, and I expect him to get the matchup. They’ll collapse hard on drives, so there should be shooters open on kick outs.
They trap anything at or towards the baseline which is where our half court offense thrives. Try to send a second guy, and good night. There are so many good passers on this team that if we remain patient, we’ll get open looks like we have against that strategy all season. Their guards are fairly small too, so that makes passing out of traps less difficult.
Lipsey is good at scraping out drives ala Ace Baldwin, but they don’t have anyone physical enough to single-handedly slow down Shannon. Gilbert is rail thin and long, and I expect him to get the matchup. They’ll collapse hard on drives, so there should be shooters open on kick outs.
illinifan31
Former Krush Cow
- South Bend, IN
My favorite part of their thread about our board and how dumb we are and how we have never seen a team like Iowa State is when they started ripping on the format of Loyalty when they are literally the exact same layout lol.
The only dumb thing is Google forced me into an amp version of their site on my phone which didn't work at all. But it seems basically identical to ours lol.
USAFILLINI
- Florida
I watched BYUs first round game, and if they are worried about BYU, they are in for a LONG game on Thursday.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We're not very similar to BYU, who attempted the most 3's in the entire country.
BYU just shot over the ISU defense, and more importantly shut them down defensively.
That's basically the story of every ISU loss. The nights they can't buy a 3 they just can't score enough to win.
The uncomfortable reality is that's mostly just going to be a question of luck.
I've noticed that you may be the board's biggest Simpsons fan.
Attachments
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Completely delusional bunch. Blows my mind how much more reasonable our fans are being in preparation for this one. VERY few fans here have not had a healthy respect for this ISU team going into this one. Meanwhile, they act like we are some upstart and they are this elite program. Again, all-time it's a bloodbath, as they have no real tradition to speak of. But even just in the last five years...
Record: ILL 116-48 (.707), ISU 84-76 (.525)
NCAAT Appearances: ILL 4, ISU 3
Sweet Sixteens: ILL 1, ISU 1
Second Round Appearances: ILL 3, ISU 2
Conference Championships: ILL 3 (1 regular season, 2 tournament), ISU 1 (0 regular season, 1 tournament)
Losing Seasons: ILL 0, ISU 2
AP Poll Finishes: ILL 4, ISU 1
---> ILL: #21 - #2 - #19 - NR - #10
---> ISU: NR - NR - NR - NR - #4
But they were better than us when John Groce was here back in 2017 ... congrats?? Their sense of entitlement HAS to be from some hangers-on status as a "Big XII program," right??
Status by way of being in the same league as Kansas, Baylor, Houston, etc.?! The only way I can wrap my mind around why they are SO confident that their #2 seed team will easily handle our #3 seed team is a religious-like devotion to the belief that the Big Ten is THAT bad that even their top 10 teams are just mediocre. Guess we'll see!
Their general cbb ignorance is because they haven't had a ton of basketball success and aren't a basketball school. For large portions of their history, ISU's fans really were never given a reason to care about cbb. Hence why their memories don't go past 2010.Completely delusional bunch. Blows my mind how much more reasonable our fans are being in preparation for this one. VERY few fans here have not had a healthy respect for this ISU team going into this one. Meanwhile, they act like we are some upstart and they are this elite program. Again, all-time it's a bloodbath, as they have no real tradition to speak of. But even just in the last five years...
Record: ILL 116-48 (.707), ISU 84-76 (.525)
NCAAT Appearances: ILL 4, ISU 3
Sweet Sixteens: ILL 1, ISU 1
Second Round Appearances: ILL 3, ISU 2
Conference Championships: ILL 3 (1 regular season, 2 tournament), ISU 1 (0 regular season, 1 tournament)
Losing Seasons: ILL 0, ISU 2
AP Poll Finishes: ILL 4, ISU 1
---> ILL: #21 - #2 - #19 - NR - #10
---> ISU: NR - NR - NR - NR - #4
But they were better than us when John Groce was here back in 2017 ... congrats?? Their sense of entitlement HAS to be from some hangers-on status as a "Big XII program," right??
They have made like 10 of the last 12 NCAA tourneys so in that sense, they're kind of "new money" in cbb. But like middle-class mcmansion new money. Not generational wealth new money.
They do have a good team this year though and a 2 seed is the best in their program's history so I'm sure this must be exciting for them.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I think we are seeing the tourney play out that the Big 12 was highly overrated. I am not saying Iowa State is not good, because they are, but they are overvaluing heavily the run that they went on down the stretch. Only Houston and Iowa State survived the first weekend, and Houston nearly blew it last night. The reality is that Thursday is a matchup of two teams that are performing at their peak.Completely delusional bunch. Blows my mind how much more reasonable our fans are being in preparation for this one. VERY few fans here have not had a healthy respect for this ISU team going into this one. Meanwhile, they act like we are some upstart and they are this elite program. Again, all-time it's a bloodbath, as they have no real tradition to speak of. But even just in the last five years...
Record: ILL 116-48 (.707), ISU 84-76 (.525)
NCAAT Appearances: ILL 4, ISU 3
Sweet Sixteens: ILL 1, ISU 1
Second Round Appearances: ILL 3, ISU 2
Conference Championships: ILL 3 (1 regular season, 2 tournament), ISU 1 (0 regular season, 1 tournament)
Losing Seasons: ILL 0, ISU 2
AP Poll Finishes: ILL 4, ISU 1
---> ILL: #21 - #2 - #19 - NR - #10
---> ISU: NR - NR - NR - NR - #4
But they were better than us when John Groce was here back in 2017 ... congrats?? Their sense of entitlement HAS to be from some hangers-on status as a "Big XII program," right??
I actually really like this matchup from the Illini perspective. The Illini have shown that they can score against virtually everybody, and they can score in a myriad of ways (transition, high-low, etc.). If Iowa State misses shots (as they typically do) and the Illini can clear the boards, then the Illini can get into transition, which is the best way of beating a good defense. The primary issue to contest with is Iowa State trying to pressure Illini into turnovers. If the Illini can take care of the ball reasonably well, I expect the Illini to be able to win. Won't be easy of course, but this Illini team is different than any offense Iowa State has seen to this point. I believe that the Illini's relentless approach will lead to Iowa State wearing down in the last 10 minutes of the game.
We may have the 3 best Offensive players on the court.... they could argue that they have the 3 best defensive players on the court...in the same breath, I do want to say... we were a top 20 defensive team for the first 8 weeks of the season, I believe (fact check that one)... before our O got a foothold. We are very capable... long enough, athletic enough, etc. on that end of the floor. Would like to see us play up on 'em a little more... be more disruptive... go after the ball to challenge an already somewhat offensively challenged team and get our own transition game going.
Disclaimer: I have only been a fan of the sport... never coached... and haven't played organized bb since the 6th grade...I was a football / baseball guy.
If you are the "TSJ runaway train going downhill", do you really care about screens and matchups?
seriously, I just don't know of anyone with combination of speed and strength who can stop him from getting his shot or FTs when he is going downhill (until he gets to NBA, that is).
For Coleman's sake he lets the next play be affected by his chirping. This is not the look he wants when it comes to Draft Day.
Coaching staff isn't happy about it.
Players are what 19-23 years old????.....How many of them would be in bed at 10pm Eastern Thursday night if they weren't playing a game in Boston???
Looks like line is down to 1.5. Started at 2.5. My initial prediction was 1.5 so maybe people are listening to me (they aren’t).
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