sacraig
- The desert
That sounds exhausting.
Pregame: Illinois vs Morehead State, Thursday, March 21st, 2:10pm CT, truTV
- Status
Chuck Norris couldn't handle Shannon or Domask.
We can have off nights, but I don't worry about "bad" shooting nights. We get a lot of offensive rebounds and put backs; we have Domask shooting from layup range and very short jumpers; we have TSJ in transition. These are high enough percentage shots and we will score 70+ on a bad shooting night. We don't let games get away from us - our D steps up when needed (wish it was always tough). We didn't lose a game by more than 10 all season. There is a reason to be comfortable with this team in the tourney. We are always going to believe we are in the game no matter the score and keep pushing.
Sure, it is possible someone gets smoking hot like when we played Northwestern on the road, but even if they do, we are going to still be in the game. I have more faith in this team than any others in my lifetime, excepting 1989 and 2005. We are dam good, and the other team is going to have to play a heck of a game to beat us.
BYU is getting a lot of buzz as a sleeper pick to beat us in the round of 32. Every player that sees significant time on that team including their 6'11" center shoots a lot of threes and at a rate above 30%. Think they average about 35% as a team. They rebound well. However, like Northwestern, I think they must shoot it a lot better at home. They were 3-7 on the road compared to 7-1 at home during conf play (although that is not terrible in the Big12). It is unlikely that they light it up with a 50+% shooting night from 3 on a neutral court. And any misses will give TSJ and opportunity to get out in transition (which is anything better than a 1 on 4 break). While BYU has a puncher's chance, I don't think that they can play with us for 40 minutes.
Marcus wasn't Marcus yet.
sacraig
- The desert
Dain wasn't Dain yet as a solid backup, either.
We were a collection of good parts that hadn't yet assembled into a whole. That's why you play the cupcake games.
Small Sample Size Alert:
Morehead State played four games against Power 5 schools at the beginning of the year (Alabama, Purdue, Penn State, Indiana). In those four games their opponents totalled 138 FTs (34.5/game).
This is not the game to settle for jump shots. Work it to the basket and let athleticism take over. I don't think Morehead can keep up with our speed (specifically TSJ) and we should be able to get them in foul trouble and dictate pace of play as a result (which I agree could be an issue if we let them have their way speed of the game).
Morehead State played four games against Power 5 schools at the beginning of the year (Alabama, Purdue, Penn State, Indiana). In those four games their opponents totalled 138 FTs (34.5/game).
This is not the game to settle for jump shots. Work it to the basket and let athleticism take over. I don't think Morehead can keep up with our speed (specifically TSJ) and we should be able to get them in foul trouble and dictate pace of play as a result (which I agree could be an issue if we let them have their way speed of the game).
Looking at kenpom, and comparing the highest 5 seed vs. lowest 12 seed, and then lowest 5 seed and highest 12 seed, The games are expected to be within 7pts and 4 pts respectively. Things spread out a bit if one compares 4 seeds and 13 seeds. Then the margins are expected to be 6.5-13pts. Those are close enough to expect at least one upset if not two.
Big “talk to the manager” energy
We played a #1 seed a couple of weeks ago, and IMHO we didn't shoot well or play well, yet only lost by 6. Now we are playing Morehead State and people are worried???? I guess you can put me in the group as not worried at all. I would not be surprised if it was closer than some want for part of the game, but once the nerves of the big stage calm down, our Illini will win 83-68. The game I'm looking forward to is BYU, because that is the game I truly believe we have all been waiting for. 40 minutes of Illinois basketball Illini win 97-81. Iowa St can then spend time wondering how they can possibly deal with so many scoring options....sleepless nights for that staff and players 
Iowa St is great at home, they are only good away from home. We have played some of our best games away from home. Most say a great defense will always beat a great offense.....they shall see, with us, it's not just about the offense/points scored. Our offense has so..... so many ways we can go and beat you. Illinois 71-68 from there we shall see how the top of the bracket shakes out. It would be interesting to hear behind closed doors (INSIDERS) how Brad and staff feel about the bracket and draw ???
Disclaimer.....this is all just chatter and predictions from a very excited and proud Illinois fan. This info in no way should be used to bet or used in any other way than entertainment reasons
Iowa St is great at home, they are only good away from home. We have played some of our best games away from home. Most say a great defense will always beat a great offense.....they shall see, with us, it's not just about the offense/points scored. Our offense has so..... so many ways we can go and beat you. Illinois 71-68 from there we shall see how the top of the bracket shakes out. It would be interesting to hear behind closed doors (INSIDERS) how Brad and staff feel about the bracket and draw ???Disclaimer.....this is all just chatter and predictions from a very excited and proud Illinois fan. This info in no way should be used to bet or used in any other way than entertainment reasons
That's a worry of mine as well. The new charge rule has certainly benefited TSJ.
Couldn't agree with you more. Illini need to bring their A game. I think a Dain/Hawk combo could be a great combo against this team. Shannon just needs to be relentless with pressure to the rim. I also like our chances of dominating the offensive glass and getting some easy put backs or 3's.
Yep, Dain is the biggest surprise of the season to me.
And it's mostly just been in the last month or so he's really come on, especially on D.
I didn't see that coming based on the early season, but sure am happy for the guy and us.
Govoner Vaugn Fan
- New Orleans
True. Then again Chuck is 84 now.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
FWIW, Morehead State is #106 in the final Selection Sunday NET Rankings. Should we win, we would play either #12 BYU or #80 Duquense. If we get two wins, we will very likely be playing either #6 Iowa State, but I suppose stranger things have happened! Here are a few of our opponents ranked in the same general neighborhood where those teams are (unless it bleeds into another opponent like BYU/Iowa State).
FIRST ROUND
#106 Morehead State
#98 Indiana (W 70-64 home)
#103 Rutgers (W 76-58 away)
#126 Oakland (W 64-53 home)
#125 Colgate (W 74-57 home)
SECOND ROUND
#12 BYU
#14 Marquette (L 71-64 home)
#21 Wisconsin (W 91-83 away, W 93-87 neutral)
#80 Duquesne
#82 Maryland (L 76-67 home [no TSJ], W 85-80 away)
#86 Penn State (L 90-89 away)
#89 Minnesota (W 105-97 home)
SWEET SIXTEEN
#6 Iowa State
#3 Purdue (L 83-78 away [no TSJ], L 77-71 home)
#7 Tennessee (L 86-79 away)
Really small and weird sample size, given so many Big Ten teams are in the #30-100 range. Let's also acknowledge the NET Rankings are what they are, haha... However...
1. We REALLY should win our first game if we show up to play. We beat everyone except for IU handily in that neighborhood, and I think we are playing significantly better now than we are in any of those comparable games, with the possible exception of demolishing RU on the road.
2. Say what you want about Wisconsin, but the metrics like them and they just knocked off #3 Purdue before losing to our Illini. Point is we have played teams as good or nearly as good as BYU and beat them very recently, and personally I like our chances in a rematch with Marquette tomorrow ... that game was way back in November. If we get Duquesne due to an upset, we have mostly handled teams in that range, the exceptions being a game without TSJ and an epic collapse at PSU that kickstarted our current hot streak. Also, I watched Duquesne in their conference championship game ... I'd take any of those three Big Ten teams to beat them by double digits.
3. I think we all have good reason to fear UConn, but as others have said ... if we are literally in the Elite Eight, who cares?? SMASHING success, win or lose. However, Iowa State? Yes, they are VERY good, but I find it ironic and funny that just three days ago posters were chomping at the bit for another shot at Purdue and EDEY, but Iowa State is too scary for us?? We were RIGHT there in all three games vs. comparable teams to Iowa State, and we can play at that level.
FIRST ROUND
#106 Morehead State
#98 Indiana (W 70-64 home)
#103 Rutgers (W 76-58 away)
#126 Oakland (W 64-53 home)
#125 Colgate (W 74-57 home)
SECOND ROUND
#12 BYU
#14 Marquette (L 71-64 home)
#21 Wisconsin (W 91-83 away, W 93-87 neutral)
#80 Duquesne
#82 Maryland (L 76-67 home [no TSJ], W 85-80 away)
#86 Penn State (L 90-89 away)
#89 Minnesota (W 105-97 home)
SWEET SIXTEEN
#6 Iowa State
#3 Purdue (L 83-78 away [no TSJ], L 77-71 home)
#7 Tennessee (L 86-79 away)
Really small and weird sample size, given so many Big Ten teams are in the #30-100 range. Let's also acknowledge the NET Rankings are what they are, haha... However...
1. We REALLY should win our first game if we show up to play. We beat everyone except for IU handily in that neighborhood, and I think we are playing significantly better now than we are in any of those comparable games, with the possible exception of demolishing RU on the road.
2. Say what you want about Wisconsin, but the metrics like them and they just knocked off #3 Purdue before losing to our Illini. Point is we have played teams as good or nearly as good as BYU and beat them very recently, and personally I like our chances in a rematch with Marquette tomorrow ... that game was way back in November. If we get Duquesne due to an upset, we have mostly handled teams in that range, the exceptions being a game without TSJ and an epic collapse at PSU that kickstarted our current hot streak. Also, I watched Duquesne in their conference championship game ... I'd take any of those three Big Ten teams to beat them by double digits.
3. I think we all have good reason to fear UConn, but as others have said ... if we are literally in the Elite Eight, who cares?? SMASHING success, win or lose. However, Iowa State? Yes, they are VERY good, but I find it ironic and funny that just three days ago posters were chomping at the bit for another shot at Purdue and EDEY, but Iowa State is too scary for us?? We were RIGHT there in all three games vs. comparable teams to Iowa State, and we can play at that level.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
On this similar note, for those down in the dumps that a potentially hot Illini team that finds itself in the Elite Eight will run into a brick wall in UConn ... these are the last #1 seed defending champs in the NCAA Tournament, FWIW:
2023: Kansas lost in Second Round to #8 seed Arkansas
2022: Baylor lost in Second Round to #8 North Carolina
2021: N/A due to COVID ... but #1 Illinois lost in Second Round to #8 Loyola
2019: N/A (defending champ was not a #1 seed)
2018: N/A (defending champ was not a #1 seed)
2017: Villanova lost in Second Round to #8 Wisconsin
So the last three defending champion #1 seeds have flopped in the Second Round. Overall, at least ONE #1 seed has gone down in the Second Round in 8 out of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments... That should serve as a warning to us how easy it is to get upset (not that we really need that...), but it is also a nice reminder that we just might get some help/luck elsewhere. Just got to take care of our own business!
This isn't pro sports. He isn't required to do anything.
Won't know until after games are over on Thursday but my guess is probably early evening (5-6) or later being that we are playing in Omaha. Tournament usually has the eastern site games early in the day for the second round. Those two sites are Charlotte and Pittsburgh.
Captain 14
- The Last Best Place
Edey must have had 36 of those
Won’t be posted until Thursday night
I was not able to watch the games live Saturday or Sunday. I feel like I should not watch live the next 3 weeks or risk being the cause of our destruction.
So much pressure.
So much pressure.
There’s only 2 games before 4pm CST (based on every other year). Very likely 4pm or later but as stated above, won’t know until very late Thursday. It was always interesting to me they stack a bunch later instead of spread out more - guess the thought is people are more busy in the morning/early afternoon.
NASchamp
- Atlanta
Me too. Was thinking about that today and how a couple of quick fouls could take TSJ out of the game similar to what happened vs Purdue.
We have to adjust our play to how the game is being called.
- Status