Illini Basketball

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#276      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
Piotyr said:
Like I said above, the projection currently doesn't include Ivisic and projects AJ Redd as getting meaningful minutes, and if you actually fill out the roster with a quality big and wing, it jumps to about 20th overall, which is top 5 in the B1G.
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IMO these models overestimate role players who played along stars. The Purdue guys efficiency was through the roof last year because they played with Edey. Let’s see how that looks when half the assists are not just post entries, wide open 3s off doubles, and the other teams center isn’t on the bench for 30 minutes.

Same concept with northwestern - how they are projected to be roughly the same seed as last year without Boo. Doubt you’re a top 32 team nationally with barnheizer as your 1A or 1B offensive player.
 
#277      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
Piotyr said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1792555356184257006

Note, this is more of a "the B1G projects really strong next year" and not a "Oh noes, Illinois is terribles" post.
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Even with Illini colored glasses that seems absurdly low even without anymore additions.

I don't understand why the model is so high on Purdue, MSU, or UCLA. Also, Northwesterns ranking is baffling high(I don't think they will be a tourney team).

Indiana, USC, and Michigan have all had great off seasons imo and should probably be higher. Ohio State has also had a sneakily good off-season.

Rutgers had some great incoming freshman but hasn't done nearly enough to surround them with veteran talent(they needed to add a bunch of depth and experience). Wisconsin's off-season has been mediocre at best, Nebraska has been ok but lost Mast for the year, and Iowa hasn't really done anything.
 
#278      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
Piotyr said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1792555356184257006

Note, this is more of a "the B1G projects really strong next year" and not a "Oh noes, Illinois is terribles" post.
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I think with Brad in charge, we’re kind of like Wisconsin under Bo Ryan. What I mean is, every year prognosticators would have them in the bottom half of the B1G and when the season rolled around they were like “OMG, the Badgers are good again. Never underestimate Bo!”
 
#279      

TheDukeUIUC

T
Twin Cities, MN
TheDukeUIUC
PepeSilvia said:
Even with Illini colored glasses that seems absurdly low even without anymore additions.

I don't understand why the model is so high on Purdue, MSU, or UCLA. Also, Northwesterns ranking is baffling high(I don't think they will be a tourney team).

Indiana, USC, and Michigan have all had great off seasons imo and should probably be higher. Ohio State has also had a sneakily good off-season.

Rutgers had some great incoming freshman but hasn't done nearly enough to surround them with veteran talent(they needed to add a bunch of depth and experience). Wisconsin's off-season has been mediocre at best, Nebraska has been ok but lost Mast for the year, and Iowa hasn't really done anything.
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I'm not sure how aware everyone is on the UCLA transfer portal successes, as a lot of the visibility was going to Muss and USC. The 247 crew just released their too-early B1G rankings and had UCLA as their number one team as things stand now. Seems like some are pretty high on how they've rebuilt the roster this summer.
 
#280      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
TheDukeUIUC said:
I'm not sure how aware everyone is on the UCLA transfer portal successes, as a lot of the visibility was going to Muss and USC. The 247 crew just released their too-early B1G rankings and had UCLA as their number one team as things stand now. Seems like some are pretty high on how they've rebuilt the roster this summer.
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West Virginia was #1 last year, so….
 
#281      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
TheDukeUIUC said:
I'm not sure how aware everyone is on the UCLA transfer portal successes, as a lot of the visibility was going to Muss and USC. The 247 crew just released their too-early B1G rankings and had UCLA as their number one team as things stand now. Seems like some are pretty high on how they've rebuilt the roster this summer.
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I'm just not super high on UCLA's guys.

Got a good incoming freshman in Perry. Plus will return Dylan Andrews, Sebastian Mack, and Stefanovic.

Then have added Dominick Harris, William Kyle, Kobe Johnson, Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey, and Skyy Clark.

If they're going to be good then they are going to need Perry to be that guy immediately and Aday Mara to drastically improve. Mara was non-existent last year and a top 30ish freshman isn't exactly guaranteed to be that guy as a freshman.

Dylan Andrews is great, Dominick Harris can really shoot, and Johnson is a good role player that can d up, but the roster composition just doesn't have enough shooting and doesn't really blow me away. Also, Bilodeau can play and might end up being the best player on the team.

Like I said Mara was not impressive last year and doesn't shoot. They got 3 6'8 guys in Dailey, Bilodeau, and Kyle that are fine players but two of them can't shoot(Bilodeau being the exception but not a dynamic shooter). Clark is an inefficient chucker that might quit on the team after he's buried by Andrews, Harris, Perry, and Mack.

Not an awful team but I see them as more of a bubble team probably in that 30-40 range then a top 10ish team.
 
#283      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
RabidDawgClassic said:
I think with Brad in charge, we’re kind of like Wisconsin under Bo Ryan. What I mean is, every year prognosticators would have them in the bottom half of the B1G and when the season rolled around they were like “OMG, the Badgers are good again. Never underestimate Bo!”
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We have been in the top 4 of the preseason B1G media poll each of the last 5 years.

I think we're on a path toward something capable of proving doubters wrong this offseason, but there has developed a firm consensus belief around here that we HAVE been regularly and systemically proving national and conference level objective prognostications wrong in recent years, and that is not true.

The team as it stands is projected to be bad for the first time since Kofi arrived, and it's for sound and very potentially true reasons. Proven college production has flooded into the top half of this conference and we are distinctly lacking in that regard.

Hard to ignore the increasing sense of desperation in our efforts to make a big score to change that.
 
#284      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
RabidDawgClassic said:
I think with Brad in charge, we’re kind of like Wisconsin under Bo Ryan. What I mean is, every year prognosticators would have them in the bottom half of the B1G and when the season rolled around they were like “OMG, the Badgers are good again. Never underestimate Bo!”
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We have very different memories of the Bo Ryan Badgers teams if you're viewing the Underwood Illinois teams as having the same national preseason perspective.
 
#285      

NarrowJ

NarrowJ
NarrowJ
ChiefGritty said:
We have been in the top 4 of the preseason B1G media poll each of the last 5 years.

I think we're on a path toward something capable of proving doubters wrong this offseason, but there has developed a firm consensus belief around here that we HAVE been regularly and systemically proving national and conference level objective prognostications wrong in recent years, and that is not true.

The team as it stands is projected to be bad for the first time since Kofi arrived, and it's for sound and very potentially true reasons. Proven college production has flooded into the top half of this conference and we are distinctly lacking in that regard.

Hard to ignore the increasing sense of desperation in our efforts to make a big score to change that.
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I wasn't able to find all of the B1G preseason media polls from the last 5 years (missing 20-21, for whatever reason I can't find it).

However, you were nearly correct:

2019-20 picked 7th and finished 4th
2020-21 can't find the poll but finished 2nd (Michigan was given the reg season conf title despite not playing all conf games)
2021-22 picked 4th and finished 1st
2022-23 picked 2nd and finished 7th
2023-24 picked 4th and finished 2nd

Also, re: "firm consensus belief that we have been regularly and systematically proving national & conf level objective prognostications wrong)-- I also am unsure if you just have 90% of the members here blocked or something, because I have the opposite experience here.
 
#286      

LvilleILL

LvilleILL
LvilleILL
ChiefGritty said:
We have been in the top 4 of the preseason B1G media poll each of the last 5 years.

I think we're on a path toward something capable of proving doubters wrong this offseason, but there has developed a firm consensus belief around here that we HAVE been regularly and systemically proving national and conference level objective prognostications wrong in recent years, and that is not true.

The team as it stands is projected to be bad for the first time since Kofi arrived, and it's for sound and very potentially true reasons. Proven college production has flooded into the top half of this conference and we are distinctly lacking in that regard.

Hard to ignore the increasing sense of desperation in our efforts to make a big score to change that.
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There is zero desperation. They are in a great spot to add two really nice pieces. What may look like desperation to a fan right now is not the same to where the staff is at. Also these computer projections don't factor in overseas kids or freshman very well, so I take those with a grain of salt.
 
#287      

LvilleILL

LvilleILL
LvilleILL
ChiefGritty said:
We have been in the top 4 of the preseason B1G media poll each of the last 5 years.

I think we're on a path toward something capable of proving doubters wrong this offseason, but there has developed a firm consensus belief around here that we HAVE been regularly and systemically proving national and conference level objective prognostications wrong in recent years, and that is not true.

The team as it stands is projected to be bad for the first time since Kofi arrived, and it's for sound and very potentially true reasons. Proven college production has flooded into the top half of this conference and we are distinctly lacking in that regard.

Hard to ignore the increasing sense of desperation in our efforts to make a big score to change that.
Click to expand...
And to go with this, we were just picked 6th in a big ten preseason rankings. And that's without the additions that are upcoming. We have a great staff and they are going to round out the roster nicely
 
#288      

Illiniguy13

Illiniguy13
Illiniguy13
ChiefGritty said:
We have been in the top 4 of the preseason B1G media poll each of the last 5 years.

I think we're on a path toward something capable of proving doubters wrong this offseason, but there has developed a firm consensus belief around here that we HAVE been regularly and systemically proving national and conference level objective prognostications wrong in recent years, and that is not true.

The team as it stands is projected to be bad for the first time since Kofi arrived, and it's for sound and very potentially true reasons. Proven college production has flooded into the top half of this conference and we are distinctly lacking in that regard.

Hard to ignore the increasing sense of desperation in our efforts to make a big score to change that.
Click to expand...
Classic
 
#289      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
LvilleILL said:
There is zero desperation. They are in a great spot to add two really nice pieces. What may look like desperation to a fan right now is not the same to where the staff is at. Also these computer projections don't factor in overseas kids or freshman very well, so I take those with a grain of salt.
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I mean, I said this twice before posting the projections, but haters gonna hate. The current projections include meaningful minutes for Redd and Jakstys, which just isn't going to happen (and is only happening on the projection because it can't factor in overseas kids as they aren't in the system). Do nothing but add Zvonimir Ivisic to this roster (I can't add Tomislav, so I will consider this a fair proxy for Tomislav), and the projection increases by 30 spots, and that's without whatever else they do to finalize the roster.
 
#290      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
LvilleILL said:
There is zero desperation. They are in a great spot to add two really nice pieces. What may look like desperation to a fan right now is not the same to where the staff is at. Also these computer projections don't factor in overseas kids or freshman very well, so I take those with a grain of salt.
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LvilleILL said:
And to go with this, we were just picked 6th in a big ten preseason rankings. And that's without the additions that are upcoming. We have a great staff and they are going to round out the roster nicely
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You can discount Barttorvik's projections, but you can't follow that up by supporting a point with 247's preseason conference rankings. One site's business model is built on accuracy - the other site is built for clicks.
 
#292      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
Piotyr said:
Except the model is explicitly excluding major pieces of the roster that the preseason ranking article does not.
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The problem is it's May and projections are practically worthless. The preseason rankings are also excluding players because Underwood and staff aren't done adding roster pieces, so it's weird to trash one but praise another doing 2025 predictions in May. Bill Connelly just made a major update to his model two weeks ago and football starts in ~3 months. But if we're comparing prediction power of Barttorvik to 247's writers, I'll take Barttorvik (or KenPom) by a health margin (same with folks like Connelly & PFF over On3, FPI, or 247) over the long-term.
 
#293      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
NarrowJ said:
Also, re: "firm consensus belief that we have been regularly and systematically proving national & conf level objective prognostications wrong)-- I also am unsure if you just have 90% of the members here blocked or something, because I have the opposite experience here.
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It is quite a funny exploration of human psychology the way everybody perceives this board to be a non-stop cavalcade of the opposite viewpoint.

LvilleILL said:
And to go with this, we were just picked 6th in a big ten preseason rankings.
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Which I also find completely plausible, for the record. It's the hardest season to project of all time.

I don't think you could reasonably have Indiana, Purdue or the two LA schools behind us as things currently stand, but beyond that it's negotiable.

(Just one note: I will bet my beach house USC is better than Michigan State next year, that one I did not understand at all)

But we are a big proven scoring piece short of being able to say with any confidence that this team WON'T be breaking the continuity of success we've had. The newness, inexperience and youth of our current roster make that a very real and large risk.

These days that are passing by with a smattering of gifs about what post number everybody is are crunch time for the staff in terms of our chances for next year.
 
#295      

Brosky

B
Brosky
ChiefGritty said:
We have been in the top 4 of the preseason B1G media poll each of the last 5 years.

I think we're on a path toward something capable of proving doubters wrong this offseason, but there has developed a firm consensus belief around here that we HAVE been regularly and systemically proving national and conference level objective prognostications wrong in recent years, and that is not true.

The team as it stands is projected to be bad for the first time since Kofi arrived, and it's for sound and very potentially true reasons. Proven college production has flooded into the top half of this conference and we are distinctly lacking in that regard.

Hard to ignore the increasing sense of desperation in our efforts to make a big score to change that.
Click to expand...
rebuilding is hard.
 
#296      

phats22

P
phats22
ChiefGritty said:
It is quite a funny exploration of human psychology the way everybody perceives this board to be a non-stop cavalcade of the opposite viewpoint.
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i disagree and find the opposite to be true

giphy (3).gif
 
#297      

Kenny67

Kenny67
Kenny67
Bro TheDuke

But we know what Skky Clarke can do ... err can't do.
 
#300      

hoopsfan47

H
hoopsfan47
NarrowJ said:
I wasn't able to find all of the B1G preseason media polls from the last 5 years (missing 20-21, for whatever reason I can't find it).

However, you were nearly correct:

2019-20 picked 7th and finished 4th
2020-21 can't find the poll but finished 2nd (Michigan was given the reg season conf title despite not playing all conf games)
2021-22 picked 4th and finished 1st
2022-23 picked 2nd and finished 7th
2023-24 picked 4th and finished 2nd

Also, re: "firm consensus belief that we have been regularly and systematically proving national & conf level objective prognostications wrong)-- I also am unsure if you just have 90% of the members here blocked or something, because I have the opposite experience here.
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Surprised that the original post was about low ranked Bo Ryan teams...only to find that the examples given were not teams coached by Bo Ryan. I am so confused!!!
 
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