No one thinks we're going to make a run to the E8 or beyond, but what about this scenario: we win 3 of our last 4, with Te'Jon continuing to improve and JCL catching fire from outside. We go into the BTT at 18-13 (8-10), on the NIT bubble, and then proceed to win 2 games there. At 20-14, we make the NIT as a 4-seed. Our run continues as we get all the way to the championship game, losing in OT to finish the year 24-15. Implausible, but could happen.
My question is, do you fire Groce before the BTT if you know that he's not the long-term solution (preventing the slim chance of an auto-bid)? Do you fire him before the NIT? If he, say, wins the NIT and finishes the year with 25 wins, going 10-2 over his last 12, is he still toast given the recruiting class? I think so, but it's at least a conversation.
I would personally fire him before the BTT unless he wins out in the regular season to finish 9-9. If that happened (unlikely), we'd be back on the NCAA bubble theoretically. I'd then fire him immediately if we didn't make the NCAA tournament. If I'm Whitman, one more regular season loss automatically results in a pre-BTT firing. If the team wins the next four, it's a stay of execution. However, missing the NCAAs is still an automatic dismissal and Walker would coach in the NIT.