BillyBob1
- Champaign
He will be Cy Young candidate after intrasquad games!
2018 St. Louis Cardinals
- Status
He will be Cy Young candidate after intrasquad games!
Even thought the weather has been less than ideal the past couple of months, we do have our first sign of spring.
Cardinals pitchers and catchers report to Jupiter today.
Cardinals pitchers and catchers report to Jupiter today.
orangeroses07
- Centralia, IL
The Norris signing feels like a slap in the face.
Deleted member 3875
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Moz says... relax, we're fine. Dewitt in the basement counting his $tack$ of $$.
IlliniFan85
- Colorado Springs, CO
Cardinals out here projecting to easily win the 1st wild card spot, 4 games over the Giants, while Giants spend 33% more on payroll for a worse team.
And you guys are out here complaining about a $3MM, 1 year relief pitcher contract...
orangeroses07
- Centralia, IL
This is just my opinion, but they had a legitimate chance to catch the Cubs this off-season, or at least get back in the discussion for the division title, and they didn't. That rotation is lacking somebody that can eat innings and has proven they can go out and win you a ballgame when needed, and instead they let the Cubs sign the biggest free agent pitcher and aren't even in discussion with others like Arrieta, Cobb, or heck even Lynn to help counter that. They're banking on young arms to all pan out and for what is left of Adam Wainwright to last an entire season.
They insist going into every off-season that they have payroll flexibility and aren't afraid to spend money, then they really don't and in fact will have a lower payroll in 2018 then they did in 2017. All while being among the league's leaders in revenue year after year.
If Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong don't repeat career years, they're toast.
If Michael Wacha can't get through 6 innings consistently, they're toast.
If one outfielder misses any significant time (both Fowler and Pham have injury-ridden pasts), they're toast as they traded their 4th outfielder.
If the likes of Weaver, Flaherty and Reyes don't pan out, they're toast.
Too many "what ifs" heading into 2018 to be legitimately excited. Just my 2 cents.
The Cubs project for 7 wins more than the Cardinals, and other than signing Darvish themselves (not a fan of 6 years), I'm not sure what they could have done to stop the Cubs from signing him? And even if they did, Cubs still sign Arietta, Cobb, or Lynn, it's not like they were going to stand pat with Mike Montgomery in their rotation.
Baked into that 88 win projection for the Cardinals, Tommy Pham is only projected for 3 wins and Paul Dejong is projected for 2.5 wins (including much lower batting than last year, average defense). There's much more upside in those numbers than downside, especially for Pham if he stays healthy, which he was all last year.
Michael Wacha has averaged 161 innings over the last 3 seasons, obviously he's an injury risk but at this point not much more than any other pitcher.
They have Harrison Bader ready for the outfield, can start last year's phenom Jose Martinez in left field if they have too, and Tyler O'Neil is one of the most exciting power bats in AAA. OF depth is the biggest strength on the team, that's why they traded away Piscotty and Grichuk.
Weaver has done nothing but be awesome in the majors, and definitely has upside on his 2.6 win projection. Reyes and Flaherty aren't even in the rotation to start the year, and I'm pretty much convinced they'll let Reyes take over for whoever is performing the worst come May (probably Wainwright, he's toast).
Yea there's a lot of uncertainty, but also a lot of upside for a team that already projects to be the 4th best team in the NL. And plenty of payroll room and prospects to add somebody big in-season.
They only things they could have done to catch the Cubs were trade for Stanton (which they kind of did, Stanton just denied it), Machado (nobody did, Orioles were probably unreasonable), or Donaldson (they still might, if the blue jays fall out of contention). Every other move would have ruined the long term plans or not have been enough.
Best thing about this, Cubs are legitimately 1 SP injury away from being almost even with the Cardinals, while the Cardinals probably have at least 2 pitchers better than Wainwright not even in their opening day rotation.
Depth Depth Depth, that's how you compete every year going on a decade
orangeroses07
- Centralia, IL
Would you be against bringing in Jake Arrieta over Miles Mikolas? Somebody you know is going to be a top 3 rotation guy over somebody who hasn't pitched in MLB since 2014? In my opinion, that rotation looks drastically different (and better) with that replacement. Especially for an organization that has the money to pull off any deal.
As an outsider, I see the Cards as having the most possible performance “swing” of any team in the Majors other than maybe the Mets. (But with a lot more upside than the Mets.) The Cardinals could win 95 or they could win 75 or they could land anywhere in between. There’s so many variables there both at the plate and on the mound.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
I have a hard time seeing them winning 90. They will likely be battling the Brewers for the 2nd spot in the Central. If I had to place a bet now, I'd go with the Brewers.
Jake Arrieta lost a mile and a half off his velocity last year and scares the crap out of me. So yea, if Arrieta wanted a 1 or 2 year, $20MM to $40MM contract, then I'd be all over him. But he's not worth the risk over 5 years $120MM+ (which is what he wants), especially for not a 1 maybe 2 win upgrade over internal options for 2018.
I'll trust the organization who has spit out amazing pitching for the last decade to know whether Alex Reyes, Flaherty, or even Dakota Hudson is better for the team over 5 years than Arrieta.
Most projection systems have the Cardinals 10 games better than the Brewers right now. Adding Arrieta maybe gets them 2-3 wins better. Their infield is Bad with a capital B and their rotation is the same (Jimmy Nelson out till July). Yelich and Cain are amazing pick ups, but they aren't even replacing the Brewers worst players. The Pirates might over take them and they're trying to be bad.
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KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
PECOTA is terrible, but yea you're right. I didn't bother to look at it.
PECOTA uses a comparable players history to try and project forward for each player, then attempts to compile that into team. So it's really reliant on current players having historical comps, which is dumb because the game has changed a lot, especially in the last 3-4 years (pitcher usage, launch angle, OBP favored over AVG, etc.) It also barely takes defense into account, which is huge.
All the others use that players actual past performance (MLB or MiLB) and uses that to project forward. The major differences for those lie in how they calculate the defense portion.
And it doesn't change the fact that the Brewers have a terrible infield, and 5 starters that add up to less than half of the Cubs or Cardinals rotation.
No one knows how the starting rotation for the Cardinals will perform. If the young guys the Cards have been stockpiling are as good as advertised, we will be in the hunt. The truth is that these guys couldn't be blocked forever and Mo wasn't willing to trade them for an older, established pitcher. They also liked them enough to decline even talking with the best FA pitchers available.
I'm not a huge fan of Mo but I am excited to see how this plays out. Mo has the Cardinals sitting in the exact opposite position of the Cubs. Cubbies farm system is depleted while the Cards are deep. We have assets to trade as holes present themselves this season. We seem inclined to at least look at improving one or both corner infield positions.
I won't predict where we will finish but I enjoy seeing a Cub's fan place us behind the Brewers. I'll take the under dog role and see if our guys can play hungry. No doubt we got complacent the past couple of years.
I'm not a huge fan of Mo but I am excited to see how this plays out. Mo has the Cardinals sitting in the exact opposite position of the Cubs. Cubbies farm system is depleted while the Cards are deep. We have assets to trade as holes present themselves this season. We seem inclined to at least look at improving one or both corner infield positions.
I won't predict where we will finish but I enjoy seeing a Cub's fan place us behind the Brewers. I'll take the under dog role and see if our guys can play hungry. No doubt we got complacent the past couple of years.
I'm never a huge fan of signing older pitchers to insane contracts. Such volatility with pitching ability, especially increases with age/usage.
The brewers played way over their talent last year, regression is going to happen. They signed some great talent and adding another SP would be wise, but they still seem like a rag tag group of guys. They have a better talent pool this year, but luck and hot streaks end eventually.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
How are the Cardinals any different? Wainwright has a combined 4.80 ERA over the last 2 seasons and Mikolas has never had any type of sustained success in the majors. That alone is 40% of the rotation. Plus you have Weaver who has one good season under his belt. He could easily see some regression this year.
? Fangraphs has the Cardinals at 88 wins and the Brewers at 78 wins.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
I personally think the 2018 Brewers will be a lot closer to the last half 2017 Brewers than the first half 2017 Brewers. There were a lot of players with unsupportable BABiPs in that first half. They were the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the Majors after the All Star Break. I think even with adding Yelich and Cain, they’re going to struggle to score runs.
IlliniFan85
- Colorado Springs, CO
2018
Wainwright's either going to throw 30 innings in April, not be good, and get replaced by Reyes (who will be full bore come May), or be good enough to throw the whole season. Honestly, we'll know in his 1st couple Spring Training starts, if he comes out throwing 86 again, he's toast. Not too worried about that.
Mikolas sucked, went to Japan and dominated, and is now back. I have no idea if he's going to be any good, but there's plenty of scouting articles out there claiming he's a better pitcher now then before he left and Fangraphs has him at almost 2 wins over 120 innings so they think he'll be adequate.
I'm irrationally high on Weaver, he's going to be a 4+ win pitcher this year and I refuse to acknowledge arguments to the contrary.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
Luke Weaver had a great *month* last year and didn't finish strong. He may very well be an excellent starter, but he is far from a proven commodity (computer models notwithstanding). It's really a shame that the Cards don't have any connection to a solid starter like Lance Lynn...
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