I understand the stability thing, but I don't think recruits (at least quality ones) going forward are going to be committing to Illinois just because Lovie has been here for 4, 5, 6, or 9 years if they're not winning. We know that some of our top targets have been taking a wait and see approach before committing and they're waiting to see if he wins. And he hasn't. From my way of thinking beyond the is the coach/staff good recruiters and have the relationship, there are two things that move the bar for recruiting -- winning and/or a vision and hope for the future. Lovie hasn't been doing the first and the hope for success is dwindling if not gone. So I don't think firing Lovie is going to have a huge negative impact on recruiting in the near or long-term. Sure it might impact the 2020 class, but even retaining an assistant (Patterson) could help with that. To see if this has been true with recent firings, I looked at recruiting for schools that have a new HC this year because they fired the previous one. The results are below. As you can see often not much of an impact and bounce back seems to happen pretty fast. Now those numbers don't take into account transfers (either transferring in or out). And the 2020 numbers are incomplete.
As for the numbers first number is national rank, second number is average recruiting ranking or score or whatever 247 calls it, and third number is number of recruits. The number of years next to school name is the length of time previous coach has been there. And I chose those 3 years because they represent last year under old coach, "half" of a recruiting cycle for new coach, and then his first year recruiting.
Akron (7 years)
2020. 104 .8278. 9
2019 114 .7923. 23
2018. 127 .7915. 16
Colorado (6 years)
2020. 45. .8489. 19
2019. 44. .8491. 25
2018 53. .8449. 25
Maryland (2 years)
2020. 41. .8562. 16
2019. 47. .8573. 18
2018. 28. .8698. 24
Charlotte (6 years)
2020. 106. .8243. 11
2019. 132. .7945. 16
2018. 111. .7877. 26
Louisville (5 years)
2020. 31. .8545. 22
2019. 69. .8496. 15
2018. 30 .8653. 24
UMass (11 years)
2020. 78. .8154. 18
2019. 113. .8030. 21
2018. 108. .7885. 24
East Carolina (3 years)
2020. 53. .8323. 21
2019 78. .8256. 21
2018. 89. .8109. 25
Central Michigan (4 years)
2020. 96. .8066. 13
2019. 104. .8012. 23
2018. 120. .7919. 19
Texas Tech (6 years)
2020. 44. .8550. 17
2019. 61. .8426. 20
2018. 72. .8376. 22
Texas State (3 years)
2020. 128. .8146. 6
2019. 133. .7973. 17
2018. 107. .7902. 31
Bowling Green (3 years)
2020. 75. .8093. 22
2019. 129. .7889. 20
2018. 91. .8081. 24
North Carolina (7 years)
2020. 19. .8771. 22
2019. 29. .8623. 24
2018. 20. 8780. 24
Western Kentucky (2 years)
2020. 100. .8140. 14
2019. 89. .8118. 25
2018. 84. .8149. 26
Kansas (4 years)
2020. 36. .8424. 26
2019. 70. .8376. 18
2018. 60. .8354. 26