2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel
- Status
Doeren just recieved a 5 year contract through 2023 and is making a little over 3 million a year at NC State. He has led the team to 5 straight bowl games. I think it would be next to impossible to bring him to Illinois.
Babers on the other hand... a little bit more possible.
Sigh. We're setting ourselves up for disappointment once again.
Dave Doeren isn't taking this job.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I'm not sure I see six wins on that schedule for them. For the sake of argument let's put them at 5-7.
People's interest in a guy who would then be 23-26 (12-20 ACC) in four years at Syracuse, who would be 59 years old when coaching his first game, and who is apparently looking to bail out of the Power Five job he already has....I don't think it's the smart part of people's brains leading them in that direction.
No wins are awarded for paying the most money or stealing the most prominent coach, despite how resolutely fans always believe that.
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
Bring me someone who has something to prove!
Oh I agree. I think we could get Babers but in no way do I think he should be at the top of the list for guys Whitman should call. I'm all in on Fickell or Long.
My post was just a comparison of who's more likely to say yes between Babers and Doeren.
Stealing Doeren is a pipe dream. It would have to be upwards of 5 mil to even get him thinking about it imo.
A name that I don't think I have heard mentioned:
Eliah Drinkwitz over at App State
Probably a long shot but the guy is an offensive guru through and through.
Eliah Drinkwitz over at App State
Probably a long shot but the guy is an offensive guru through and through.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Doeren's OC the last two years, during which they had their greatest success. Scott Satterfield left App State in A+ shape, so their current success can't tell us all that much, but Drinkwitz is certainly a promising young guy in the coaching profession.
All fair points. Only comment I'd make is I don't think the view of Syracuse is overly accurate. It's a Power 5 job but it has very real limitations. There are Group of 5 jobs that are as attractive if not moreso.
I never like to hire coaches who have fewer than 4 years of coaching experience at their current school (head or coordinator). What if they are riding the coattails of the previous coach who left them in a good situation? At least after 4 years you see their recruits and whether they can sustain the program at that point. Just my thoughts.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Oh sure, Syracuse is a tough gig. List the Power Five jobs by talent located within a 4 hour drive of campus, and Syracuse is going to be a handful from the bottom (Illinois would be higher on that list that people might assume btw).
But is Babers actually succeeding there? I'm dubious.
I think that's fair. Probably revolves more around what a reasonable expectation of success looks like for that program and whether or not you feel internally that he's meeting that threshold.
My lean is yes but it's only a lean. DeVito should be a lot further along in his development.
After reading a good number of posts, I just do not think Illinois has any good alternatives. The next FB Coach, it seems to me, will more than likely be an experiment too. ??????
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Any coach we would hire would be an experiment. Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Dabo Swinney, you name it.
Keeping Lovie would also be an experiment.
The future is not certain.
Nope.
The future is more certain with some and disastrous with some.
There is a curve out there. Heck the world runs on such curves.
I definitely don't see it that way. I see lots of attractive names that are both high performing and attainable. Having to analyze the list of candidates and revise to manage your expectations doesn't mean you're in a bad spot.
Last edited:
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
No that's absolutely true. But there are neither guarantees of success nor guarantees of failure (within reason. Hiring me would be a guarantee of failure).
Literally Urban Meyer is probably no higher than like 85% (you run into a bit of an endogeneity problem at the upper bound. That this supposedly amazing coach is willing to slum it at Illinois becomes an indication that something is not as it seems. I'll just leave any association of that concept with Lovie's hiring un-commented upon)
And then among actual plausible hires (leaving out the John Holecek or Howard Griffith type suggestions), you probably aren't going much lower than 25-30% chance of success, depending a little bit on how you define success.
You're right about the curve, but it's only so broad.
Good coach. Not any particular fit at Illinois, but he'd be an obvious candidate for any Sun Belt/CUSA type job. He was an Alabama HS coach who was brought there as OC by Bill Clark, who left after one year to go to UAB. Instant success at both, including technically twice at UAB. Bill Clark is awesome.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
How are the absolute sure things Chip Kelly at UCLA and Jim Harbaugh at Michigan going?
(Coming soon to this list: Jimbo at A&M)
I refuse to do a deep dive into this one-- in the context of being a "sure thing hire", I know you aren't really implying Chip Kelly & Jim Harbaugh would be an apples-to-apples comparison to Dabo Swinney, Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I think Harbaugh was probably a better hire than any of those three would be. Jim Harbaugh to Michigan might have been the highest expected value hire in modern CFB history. Meyer to Ohio State is a contender for that. Both were even higher than Saban to Bama.
I betcha Stoops and Meyer will struggle more at their next gigs than people are anticipating.
(On Chip Kelly, I saw this coming a mile away, so I'm a bit less sure what the general expectation level was, but I know it was treated in some quarters as the surest of sure things, not without some justification.)
BZuppke
- Plainfield
I would say no one including Doeren is necessarily a pipe dream. There are other factors that play into these things. For example if Doeren’s Wife’s family is all here in the Midwest, a big payday and being much closer to family could factor in. Additionally, what is his relationship with the AD? Saban for one has always listed this as a big factor. Our conclusions here do not take these other factors into account so we aren’t necessarily getting the full picture.
I can’t speak for anyone else but I am factoring these things as in, as best I can given the information I have. See my prior comments regarding Luke Fickell, Bill Clark and Sonny Dykes.
And no Dave Doeren is not attainable.
Just to clarify -- are you saying Harbaugh was probably a better hire to Michigan than Swinney, Stoops, or Urban Meyer would have been? Am I misunderstanding that? Michigan ties aside (and yes, those obviously hold weight as a HC hire to Michigan) -- Take a look at the collective collegiate WL records of Harbaugh in 2015 vs. any of those 3 and say that again.
I'll just throw this out there -- By 2015, Harbaugh had won the Orange Bowl and lost in the esteemed Sun Bowl....take a gander at Stoops' bowl appearances prior to 2015.
- Status