2019 St. Louis Cardinals

#51
It's just the Evoaldi deal except a year into the future. I'd take Miles 10/10 times over Nathan Eovaldi, even with the age difference.
Yeah. Considering it's practically inevitable that Eovaldi is going to blow his arm up again. Watch his delivery. I don't know how he doesn't dislocate his shoulder on every pitch.
 
#52
I like the Mikolas deal and love bringing in literally anyone but Pena to be backup catcher. I loved the Goldy trade and am ambivalent towards Miller in the bullpen.

What sucks is the fact that payroll is going to come in right at where it started last year and the team is going to project for almost literally exactly the same amount of wins as last year at the start of the year. There's a lot more upside in this team compared to last year, like Bader in the outfield, Goldy only being projected for 4.5 wins and he's put up over 5 every year, O'Neil being ready for full time, not having Matheny muck everything up.

But there's a lot of payroll falling off again next year, and part of that is a giant hole (maybe 2 if O'Neil falls flat) in the outfield. I just can't comprehend them not being interested at all in Harper, especially with all the "dry powder" payroll room they've talked about for years now. They might just go out and win the division, because the Cubs aren't nearly as good as they have been, but it's just dumb that there was a 3-4 win upgrade just sitting there that only cost money and they didn't even explore it.
 
#53
Back in the 80's I read an article (don't ask me to provide a link to it today.) that shows franchises are more profitable finishing a close second than they are when they go all in and spend the needed funds to shore up the holes in their roster.

StL epitomizes this concept. With 3+ million tickets sold each year, they will never get their investment back in additional revenue by spending $30 million a year on Harper. They won't sell enough tickets, concessions, jerseys and other merchandise to break even.

The only reason to truly go all in no matter what is to be like Gussie Busch or Geo Steinbrenner and put a championship caliber team on the field without consulting with the accounting department.

Spending the money will only pay out in the form of more complacent fans. Since this is not Philadelphia or other markets with more vocally critical fans it doesn't matter to the front office and ownership. The fans will be there no matter what.

The DeWitt definition of "all in" is not the same as the fan's definition.
 
#54
Back in the 80's I read an article (don't ask me to provide a link to it today.) that shows franchises are more profitable finishing a close second than they are when they go all in and spend the needed funds to shore up the holes in their roster.

StL epitomizes this concept. With 3+ million tickets sold each year, they will never get their investment back in additional revenue by spending $30 million a year on Harper. They won't sell enough tickets, concessions, jerseys and other merchandise to break even.

The only reason to truly go all in no matter what is to be like Gussie Busch or Geo Steinbrenner and put a championship caliber team on the field without consulting with the accounting department.

Spending the money will only pay out in the form of more complacent fans. Since this is not Philadelphia or other markets with more vocally critical fans it doesn't matter to the front office and ownership. The fans will be there no matter what.

The DeWitt definition of "all in" is not the same as the fan's definition.

I mean i appreciate the fact that they've been competitive pretty much constantly since 2000. And in Mozeliak's tenure, they haven't finished more than a few games out of a playoff spot. There's definitely value in that for me as a fan over the boom and bust of the Astros or Cubs, especially since time and time again baseball shows that you just have to get in to the playoffs and anything can happen.

But to say the return on Harper wouldn't be $30MM or more is probably an overstatement. The odds of making the playoffs when your team projects for 87 wins compared to 91 wins is pretty huge. And the playoffs are very lucrative, especially with TV rights these days. And the Cardinals don't bring in the revenue of the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, etc., but they could probably comfortably run a payroll at $190MM -$200MM (about where they'd be with Harper). Their FSMW cable deal has been paying dividends starting last year (they have an equity deal like the Cubs just announced) and the ballpark village development has been very profitable which isn't even considered baseball revenue as far as profit sharing goes.
 
#55
I mean i appreciate the fact that they've been competitive pretty much constantly since 2000. And in Mozeliak's tenure, they haven't finished more than a few games out of a playoff spot. There's definitely value in that for me as a fan over the boom and bust of the Astros or Cubs, especially since time and time again baseball shows that you just have to get in to the playoffs and anything can happen.

But to say the return on Harper wouldn't be $30MM or more is probably an overstatement. The odds of making the playoffs when your team projects for 87 wins compared to 91 wins is pretty huge. And the playoffs are very lucrative, especially with TV rights these days. And the Cardinals don't bring in the revenue of the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, etc., but they could probably comfortably run a payroll at $190MM -$200MM (about where they'd be with Harper). Their FSMW cable deal has been paying dividends starting last year (they have an equity deal like the Cubs just announced) and the ballpark village development has been very profitable which isn't even considered baseball revenue as far as profit sharing goes.
You have good points. As I mentioned it was the 80s and TV revenue along with other income streams have changed a lot since then. I was thinking about it as I was putting my comments down.

That said I am still a little skeptical that they would recover it simply by making the playoffs.

The FSMW package doesn't count for the postseason. Keep in mind whatever rev ballpark village etal brings in, I am saying they will get that without Harper. BPV is packed for every game. I don't see them selling very many more hotdogs or beers because Harper is across the street.

It has to be like the McGwire contract in the late 90s. He got a $1 for each butt in the seats over 2.75 mil. (They only had 2.63 in 1997.) In 98 the Sosa-Mac hr race drew 3.19 fans.
 
#60
Any guesses on how long the starting rotation stays like this?
1. Mikolas
2. Flaherty
3. Wacha
4. Waino
5. Hudson
Until May 1st or whenever Carlos is ready, Hudson will probably step down or there will be an injury. I still don't have a ton of hope for Wainwright (even with his good spring), hopefully he can give a solid 60-80 innings through the 1st half of the year or so and Reyes steps in ready to start for the rest of the year.

Pretty good deal for everyone. I don't regret trading Weaver and Kelly at all.
The only quibble I can think of is they probably could have got this same deal at the end of the year, but screw it who cares, when you have one of the top 3 bats in the NL and the money to spare, just lock him up and don't worry about it.
 
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#61
Until May 1st or whenever Carlos is ready,
Hudson will probably step down or there will be an injury.
I still don't have a ton of hope for Wainwright (even with his good spring), hopefully he can give a solid 60-80 innings through the 1st half of the year or so and Reyes steps in ready to start for the rest of the year.



The only quibble I can think of is they probably could have got this same deal at the end of the year, but screw it who cares, when you have one of the top 3 bats in the NL and the money to spare, just lock him up and don't worry about it.
For some reason I don't trust Carlos to be ready by May Day. I am thinking it will be closer to mid June and then back to the DL (or do they call it "IL" now?) in late July.

I am hoping Hudson is in the rotation for the next 10 years.

Waino, I just don't know yet. I hope he has a fantastic final year. The wise old sage learns to trick the batter and keep him off balance like so many aged pitchers before him. It's pretty tough to do otherwise we would see dozens of 35 year old pitchers fluttering the ball to the plate.

Reyes, can they get him stretched out to be a starting pitcher from the bullpen?It's theoretically possible but in a live season I look for expediency to take over the process and not give him enough 3-4 inning games to get there.

They prob could wait until the end of the year and got the same deal but there are about 1 million fans who would have lost their minds (short trip no doubt) in the interim.
 
#62
For some reason I don't trust Carlos to be ready by May Day. I am thinking it will be closer to mid June and then back to the DL (or do they call it "IL" now?) in late July.

I am hoping Hudson is in the rotation for the next 10 years.

Waino, I just don't know yet. I hope he has a fantastic final year. The wise old sage learns to trick the batter and keep him off balance like so many aged pitchers before him. It's pretty tough to do otherwise we would see dozens of 35 year old pitchers fluttering the ball to the plate.

Reyes, can they get him stretched out to be a starting pitcher from the bullpen?It's theoretically possible but in a live season I look for expediency to take over the process and not give him enough 3-4 inning games to get there.

They prob could wait until the end of the year and got the same deal but there are about 1 million fans who would have lost their minds (short trip no doubt) in the interim.
I mean I HOPE Hudson is awesome and Wainwright keeps it together, I just don't have super high hopes for that happening this year. Hudson just walked too many guys in the minors (and in his short sting in the MLB last year) to be successful with his low strike out rate. He needs to get his command under control, which looked promising during spring training but... it's just spring training who knows if he's turned a corner. He'll definitely get a shot again next year, Wainwright will be done and I doubt they re-sign Wacha.

There was an interview with Shildt the other day about how they're planning to increase Reyes' innings out of the bullpen. They want to get him at least 120 to 140 innings this year so he's ready for a full starters work load next year, and he won't get that without multi inning stretch out appearances from the bullpen. I assume they'll do a lot of "Hudson/ Wainwright never sees the order a 3rd time, Reyes throws 3 innings" type of starts and hopefully he's throwing well enough to demand a starting role by mid-season.
 
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#63
Any guesses on how long the starting rotation stays like this?
1. Mikolas
2. Flaherty
3. Wacha
4. Waino
5. Hudson
Unless there’s an injury, the only names that I think could drop from that rotation are Waino and Hudson. The good news is that they both looked good this spring, so hopefully that doesn’t have to happen. I don’t think the club is going to rush Martinez back to starting too soon, and I don’t think Reyes starts until next year. I’m pretty sure he’s on an innings limit (around 120-150?), so starting him doesn’t make much sense. If Martinez becomes valuable enough in the bullpen, I wouldn’t be surprised if they keep him there for the season.
 
#64
I mean I HOPE Hudson is awesome and Wainwright keeps it together, I just don't have super high hopes for that happening this year. Hudson just walked too many guys in the minors (and in his short sting in the MLB last year) to be successful with his low strike out rate. He needs to get his command under control, which looked promising during spring training but... it's just spring training who knows if he's turned a corner. He'll definitely get a shot again next year, Wainwright will be done and I doubt they re-sign Wacha.

There was an interview with Shildt the other day about how they're planning to increase Reyes' innings out of the bullpen. They want to get him at least 120 to 140 innings this year so he's ready for a full starters work load next year, and he won't get that without multi inning stretch out appearances from the bullpen. I assume they'll do a lot of "Hudson/ Wainwright never sees the order a 3rd time, Reyes throws 3 innings" type of starts and hopefully he's throwing well enough to demand a starting role by mid-season.
I don't know, can Reyes pitch 3 innings on back to back days? I don't think that they will split Hudson/Wainwright.