Big Ten Media Rights / Conference Realignment

#51
So 45 million first year of new deal, or roughly 23 million in first tier TV rights.

To me it looks like 45 million is pretty much in the bag already with the Fox numbers, without any B1G network growth. If ESPN comes up with 1/2 of current 1st tier rights today (9 mil/2, +37 mil/2) then you are roughly at the 45 million. (I suspect these numbers lose a bit 1st year because the Fox contract is likely back loaded), but other numbers likely go up as well.

Which that much in the bank, I'm guessing Delany is thinking North of 50 mil is now possible & if ESPN is unwilling to come up with that kind of money, then the 2nd half of content gets split up between other players or held in ransom in the BTN until ESPN plays.

Just speculation, but with the "up to" in front of the Fox numbers I'm guessing the Fox number quoted is indeed for a premium 1/2, but B1G left themselves some room to make the 2nd half at least as attractive as the Fox portion, in which case Fox number goes down, but ESPN number will need to be in range of revised Fox number.
Another part of Awful Announcing's awful analysis is assuming that the current ABC/ESPN deal isn't backloaded. Accordingly, they estimate that BTN/Fox/Other media pays out a third more than ABC/ESPN. Does that pass the sniff test? Not to me. Furthermore, they don't back out what Fox currently pays the Big Ten for the championship game, which presumably is included in their $250 mil/yr bid. $45 mil payout the first year is definitely not a slam dunk, and will rely on pulling a lot more from ESPN than their initial bid.

When was the last time you heard about a conference deal for television rights being leaked before it was signed? This seemed curious to me, especially since Delany is handling the negotiations directly. The only thing I can figure is that he's trying to show ABC/ESPN that Fox is serious. The Big Ten always gets good ratings. Getting prime Big Ten games is a nice lead-in for their other content. Can ABC/ESPN afford to let that content go to another network?
 
#52
You don't have to worry about the value of an asset in 2030 if you're only buying it until 2023.

The cable industry believes their subscriber losses are going to stay at just a trickle for several years yet, with increased fees making up for it. They're probably right. But the end is coming, and while the future is still uncertain and could look a number of different ways, it is virtually certain that it will not be a model in which old grannies pay $12 a month for niche sports programming they don't watch or even realize they're paying for. That is the part of the model that's dying, and the beneficiaries of that particular swindle are overwhelmingly sports entities whose cultural cache greatly outweigh their actual viewership.
The thing is, the platforms may change, but the value of the content will not change. The reason the sports leagues are able to extort such large subscriber fees from cable providers is 1) the ad revenue live sports can generate and 2) the loyalty of sports fans who will readily switch providers if they can't watch their favorite team(s) play.

Those two things are not going to change, no matter what method is used to extract money from broadcast platforms. And the B1G has arguable the largest and most-loyal fan bases in college sports and also the best media markets. Relative to all of their competitors, with the possible exception of the SEC, the B1G schools are guaranteed to make the most money from their broadcast rights fees.
 
#53
The thing is, the platforms may change, but the value of the content will not change. The reason the sports leagues are able to extort such large subscriber fees from cable providers is 1) the ad revenue live sports can generate and 2) the loyalty of sports fans who will readily switch providers if they can't watch their favorite team(s) play.

Those two things are not going to change, no matter what method is used to extract money from broadcast platforms. And the B1G has arguable the largest and most-loyal fan bases in college sports and also the best media markets. Relative to all of their competitors, with the possible exception of the SEC, the B1G schools are guaranteed to make the most money from their broadcast rights fees.
I agree with all of this. Millions of people want to watch Big Ten sports and there will be profits to be made from delivering that to them long after cable TV is this strange old thing we're telling our grandkids about watching.

But the money currently being wrung out of cable television by college conferences and NBA and MLB teams in local markets is not commensurate with the actual level of interest for those products. They have crafted a system which simulates a world in which 100% of TV viewers are active, regular sports viewers, and that system is coming to an end. The non-sports viewers are being given much cheaper options to access the things that they want to watch, and to no one's great surprise they are taking them in increasing numbers.

I am in no way predicting the death of Big Ten or college sports or anything like that. We will be able to watch Illini football and basketball on television for as long as we're alive. We're just going to have to pay a lot more to do so if the current revenue structure is to be sustained.
 
#54
Captain Trips-ville, Planet Houston
Delivery will change. Deliverers may change. But this is certain: we're (the BIG is) winning. These new contracts set us up perfectly to make the leap to 16. It will be extremely difficult for schools to turn down an invitation. I think GT, FSU, NC and Va are in the crosshairs.
 
#55
M tipping over
Pdx
Delivery will change. Deliverers may change. But this is certain: we're (the BIG is) winning. These new contracts set us up perfectly to make the leap to 16. It will be extremely difficult for schools to turn down an invitation. I think GT, FSU, NC and Va are in the crosshairs.
I think any of those schools would be solid candidates. They were mentioned before when this topic came up. I think that most ACC schools in general are good candidates because of their reputations as both good scholastic and research schools. I think this will be an important part of the decision criteria.
 
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#56
Captain Trips-ville, Planet Houston
I think any of those schools would be solid candidates. They were mentioned before when this topic came up. I think that most ACC schools in general are good candidates because of their reputations as both good scholastic and research schools. I think this will be an important part of the decision criteria.
FSU doesn't really meet the academic and research criteria. But they're a king and get us into Florida. The latter attributes totally trump the former. GT brings Atlanta and Georgia. Obviously, U. of Georgia and the SEC rule the roost there and always will. But FSU and GT leaving pretty much kill the ACC. At that point, UNC and UVa are ripe for the taking.
 
#57
M tipping over
Pdx
FSU doesn't really meet the academic and research criteria. But they're a king and get us into Florida. The latter attributes totally trump the former. GT brings Atlanta and Georgia. Obviously, U. of Georgia and the SEC rule the roost there and always will. But FSU and GT leaving pretty much kill the ACC. At that point, UNC and UVa are ripe for the taking.
Yep, market coverage will be essential too.
 
#58
Peoria
UVA, UNC, GT, UT, and OU would top my list of targets if it comes to that.


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#59
Captain Trips-ville, Planet Houston
UT won't join the BIG. They are used to dictating terms and that won't fly in the BIG. Not enough people in Oklahoma. The only way is if UT wants in and wants to bring a dance partner.

Florida is actually a great fit for the BIG. Much better than FSU. But I doubt they'll be able to pry them loose. FSU and GT pretty much renders the ACC into an also ran. Carolina and Virginia can be had.

Mega mega bucks with that footprint.

Which traditional B10 team heads east? I'm guessing Purdue.
 
#60
UT won't join the BIG. They are used to dictating terms and that won't fly in the BIG. Not enough people in Oklahoma. The only way is if UT wants in and wants to bring a dance partner.

Florida is actually a great fit for the BIG. Much better than FSU. But I doubt they'll be able to pry them loose. FSU and GT pretty much renders the ACC into an also ran. Carolina and Virginia can be had.

Mega mega bucks with that footprint.

Which traditional B10 team heads east? I'm guessing Purdue.
I'm wondering if UT may have a change of heart. Some of the reason they wanted to dictate terms was money & not wanting to share. With B1G & SEC contracts they are losing ground...that has got to hurt for probably the richest program in the country.
Florida would be gold, but I don't think they are in play. SEC is the only conference it doesn't make sense to leave for the B1G. Adds travel cost which might be ok for football, but for all sports, cuts into rivalries like GA & TN. FSU isn't a great fit academically, but no doubt they would jump at an offer. GT is a great academic fit, but they are definitely 2nd fiddle in the state of Georgia. Probably throw Clemson in there as well, better football school, better academic fit. Don't know what is going on with VA/UNC, I'm assuming they didn't show interest when MD came in, & 1/2 of ND seemed enough to save the ACC for now, plus they signed a long term/high dollar cost to leave agreement.
I still think the end play is for ND and/or TX if this is heading for 16, UNC/VA would probably make the cut as consolation prizes, FSU fails the academic test, but Florida market & football powerhouse give them a chance.
 
#61
Admin
In potential Fox-Big Ten rights deal, the big story may be ESPN

But we can’t think of another time that ESPN did not place a competitive bid for a property it really wanted. Sources said ESPN’s offer was well below Fox’s. This is the network that has set the parameters for sports rights negotiations since the late 1990s, and it should send shock waves to sports leagues that ESPN is more cost-conscious with its rights fees. The question is how long this belt-tightening will last given that most major sports rights aren’t up for several years. Word is that ESPN already has set up meetings to bid on what remains of the Big Ten’s rights. But if ESPN’s bid wasn’t competitive for the first package, we’re skeptical that it will be competitive on the second one.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2016/04/25/Media/Big-Ten.aspx
 
#63
ESPN seems to be losing quite a few on-air personalities. It's looking less and less likely they'll offer a very competitive bid.

Illinois, among others, turned down a more lucrative offer from Under Armour to keep the recruiting benefits of Nike. I'm curious if Delany has the same mindset towards ESPN.
 
#64
Tyngsborough, MA
I have a personal desire to see ESPN go the way of the dodo and blockbuster.
 
#65
ESPN seems to be losing quite a few on-air personalities. It's looking less and less likely they'll offer a very competitive bid.

Illinois, among others, turned down a more lucrative offer from Under Armour to keep the recruiting benefits of Nike. I'm curious if Delany has the same mindset towards ESPN.
The article Dan linked above certainly questions if they will offer a competitive package, never sure how much of this is rumor/negotiating/propaganda vs. real. I think the signs are certainly out there that at least part of it is real & I suspect that is why details of the in works B1G deal with Fox is coming out to add some pressure to ESPN. The article also talks about concerns that other basketball coaches have had in the past on recruiting if they wouldn't have ESPN coverage.

So IMO, I think Delaney still sees value in ESPN and splitting the package, likely the 6 yr contract, public details of Fox package, hints that 2nd half is at least negotiable are all plays to engage ESPN, keep them in the game, and at the same time maximize $ for B1G. I think Delaney sent a shot across ESPN's bow that they need to pony up, but I don't think he wants them in the fold & is structuring terms to keep them involved.
 
#66
I have a personal desire to see ESPN go the way of the dodo and blockbuster.
ESPN is still number 1 in coverage, channels, and general exposure. The B1G needs ESPN. I think we have a bit more leverage with ESPN, because BTN is partnered with Fox, than most conferences that have partnered with ESPN...but it is in our best interest to maintain a competitive position between several sports channels, right now that is Fox & ESPN.
 
#67
Tyngsborough, MA
Sure thing, Greensboro, but that doesn't mean ESPN won't, eventually, go the way of the dodo and blockbuster. However, that is more of a personal desire than a prediction.
 
#68
I'd rather have ESPN than CBS-Turner, even if it would mean less money for Illinois. I wouldn't mind the whole package going to Fox. They'll promote the Big Ten more than ESPN ever has.
 
#69
I'd rather have ESPN than CBS-Turner, even if it would mean less money for Illinois. I wouldn't mind the whole package going to Fox. They'll promote the Big Ten more than ESPN ever has.
I'm not sure Fox has the capacity/breadth to take the whole package today and do it justice. On most basic cable packages you get espn, espn2, espnU,espn news. At the end of the day we want B1G content out there, where fans, recruits, anyone & everyone can see it, today ESPN is the biggest player, & we need and want that exposure. Giving Fox more than they can do justice with doesn't help our case long term. My concern with ESPN is that most of the other conference networks are ESPN, does that give them more incentive to promote those other conferences, maybe. But as long as the B1G is the most valuable content out there and ESPN wants to remain number 1 they need us. For them the ESPN brand still has to be much more important than the Longhorn or SEC network. I think we want a minimum of 2 strong partners to keep everyone in check, today that is Fox & ESPN. Pushing ESPN out of the picture sounds like a dumb idea to me, maybe we groom another player to challenge ESPN by splitting the 2nd half of the package further, but just don't see us trying to cut out ESPN totally. I also think if ESPN came up with close to Fox money for the 2nd half of the package it would be a done deal.
 
#70
Sure thing, Greensboro, but that doesn't mean ESPN won't, eventually, go the way of the dodo and blockbuster. However, that is more of a personal desire than a prediction.
That's always a possibility, especially with the growth in streaming and pressure to offer more content selections, the world is a changing. But be careful what you wish for, I still remember the days before ESPN where most nights you couldn't watch a season sports game and in the transition we may be watching Fox's 5th team of broadcasters that were bagging groceries last week.

As a bit of a side note, ESPN is now available on sling for $20/month for those of us who have cut the cable wire, so they are trying to adapt to the changing TV world or at least feeling some pressure. That is double Hulu/Netflix which I assume is to cover ESPN content, but still significantly less than my cable bill was running.
 
#71
ESPN and the Big Ten both want a deal to get done as they need each other. So it will get done eventually, remains to be seen where they reach agreement on how much $$ it is.
 
#74
Captain Trips-ville, Planet Houston
The bandwidth is definitely there. Does NBC want to pony up for it? Is the Big Ten really willing to walk away totally from ESPN?
Brinksmanship. Delany has already served up a big sandwich (the BTN) to ESPN. The Fox deal is another one. If ESPN doesn't ante up, Delany has a backup plan. Undoubtedly involves splitting the 2nd half up. NBC could definitely be a player.
 
#75
Undoubtedly involves splitting the 2nd half up. NBC could definitely be a player.
I don't think you really want to split up the content too much. Previously we had BTN, ABC/ESPN and CBS. As I said previously I'd think CBS would still want the BTT weekend as a lead-in to Selection Sunday along with their handful of national BB games. If we add in NBC to the mix or Turner then you're really risking having people not know where to go to see Big Ten games, i.e. too much confusion. That's why the coaches are so insistent in wanting to stay with ESPN, that's still the default choice for college sports.