I doubt I know anymore than anyone else, I don't think anyone really knows, that is stuff presidents keep pretty close to there vest. Last round from what I could tell everyone was in shock MD was in play, afterwards I heard a lot of justification, but all with the benefit of hindsight. FSU was the other team that voted no (in addition to MD) to the 50 mill buyout. From what I remember reading at the time, there fans thought they would have taken a B1G spot in a heartbeat. Would have liked the SEC more, but Florida, SC, & GA were supposed to be blocking, GT, FSU, Clemson. Fans here are all about UNC/Duke/NCState basketball, so they like the status quo, but I doubt there vote counts for much. But I think it is as much about Delaney playing poker, there are a handful of teams Delaney can get anytime he wants with as much money and stability as the B1G offers, I think FSU, Miami, BC, Pittsburgh, maybe VATech don't have that much loyalty and jump in a heartbeat, but Delaney will be fishing for big fish. If Delaney can even create the illusion UVA or UNC is in play, then I think it would be every man for himself.
Big Ten Media Rights / Conference Realignment
I doubt I know anymore than anyone else, I don't think anyone really knows, that is stuff presidents keep pretty close to there vest. Last round from what I could tell everyone was in shock MD was in play, afterwards I heard a lot of justification, but all with the benefit of hindsight. FSU was the other team that voted no (in addition to MD) to the 50 mill buyout. From what I remember reading at the time, there fans thought they would have taken a B1G spot in a heartbeat. Would have liked the SEC more, but Florida, SC, & GA were supposed to be blocking, GT, FSU, Clemson. Fans here are all about UNC/Duke/NCState basketball, so they like the status quo, but I doubt there vote counts for much. But I think it is as much about Delaney playing poker, there are a handful of teams Delaney can get anytime he wants with as much money and stability as the B1G offers, I think FSU, Miami, BC, Pittsburgh, maybe VATech don't have that much loyalty and jump in a heartbeat, but Delaney will be fishing for big fish. If Delaney can even create the illusion UVA or UNC is in play, then I think it would be every man for himself.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
The biggest fish.
Miami, BC, Pittsburgh and VaTech won't make the cut. Neither will Clemson or Syracuse.
NC and Virginia will only be in play after FSU and GT bolt. Once they go, the unthinkable becomes a helluva lot more likely, if not inevitable.
Maryland was not exactly secretive about the fact that they would have preferred to remain in the ACC all else being equal, but due to financial troubles, the Big Ten's was an offer they couldn't refuse.
Anyway, this is one of my early-onset "becoming a whiny old crank" issues. The further we go down this track, the more the Big Ten becomes a meaningless holding company for media assets. I think that's something to mourn, but I also firmly believe that that is sacrificing one of the Big Ten's core competitive advantages in the marketplace. The Big Ten is a brand that means something. Brand dilution can bring short-term growth and gain, but that is at the cost of long-term erosion.
That of course assumes that "conferences" as we understand them in college sports are a permanent feature of the system, an assumption which very well might not be true.
Agree on Miami, BC, Pitt, & VATech.
I think Clemson could be ahead of GT long term. Better Football program with passionate fans, Clemson probably brings Charlotte which isn't as good as probably bringing Atlanta, but if cable switches to more who will pay for package vs. being standard then I think the tables start to tip to stronger football programs.
If the end game is 16, I'm not sure UNC/UVA are the big fish, until you are sure you can't shake ND/Texas lose. Neither are football schools, UVA is a bit redundant to MD in DC market.
But regardless, if the B1G is handing out in the range of 45 million/school all the ACC teams need to reevaluate there priorities & if spots are limited at the table there is a lot of pressure to secure your future vs. waiting & hoping it works out.
That's exactly right, and to continue to be a broken record, it's not if but when.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
The biggest fish after Texas and ND, which I'm assuming won't join. Florida too.
Clemson is obviously the stronger football program, but more is factored in. If we're holding our nose a bit in taking FSU, it will be a lot more palatable to take GT with them.
Virginia is a decently populous and growing state. UVa's academics, research and prestige will be highly coveted. It will be NC's dance partner.
A state that makes Illinois look like Nebraska in terms of interest, loyalty, and support of their flagship university's sports teams.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
We took Rutgers.
For the BTN subscriber fee money, and we will pay for that decision for as long as the Big Ten exists.
Stealing from basic cable subscribers isn't going to be the model anymore once the ACC's grant of rights is up, and even if it were, Maryland already has us on basic cable in DC.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Well, there's plenty of time for the conference to assess the situation. Maybe UVa isn't as cut-and-dried as I think.
Bring on European-style relegation and promotion for college revenue sports! :thumb: (Seriously would enjoy this even though I know it has no chance of happening)
I think that is a really interesting question in both dimensions. Is the end game 16? And if so, would the BIG be moved by UNC and UVa?
I get the idea that the more we expand the more we lose our roots, but depends on what is the key determinant of our brand. Is it cool crisp Midwestern football Saturdays with orange leaves and combines rolling. Or is it large geographically contiguous nationally recognized flagship universities with excellent academics, research, professional programs, and sports teams that collaborate in the classroom and compete on the sports field. If it is the latter, you could make a case that adding UNC, UVa, GaTech, FSU/UF, and 2 of Vandy/Duke/ND/Clemson fulfills the brand.
Getting to 20 in this way is interesting. To these new 6 you add PSU, UMd and Rutgers, and one traditional BIG school. Logic would say Ohio St., but I would suggest it could be IU - who markets themselves to the east coast. At this point we would have the traditional BIG (plus UNl - IU) and the new Southern additions plus IU. IU really doesn't have any football rivalries to preserve except Purdue, and there is already an exception made for that. So by adding this many in this way, you could essentially get back to a traditional BIG football schedule in North.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Good post. You make a good case for IU to the east.
The endgame isn't 16 or even 18. But the BIG is going to get really, really picky over 19 & 20.
I would argue it is clearly and emphatically the former. A brand isn't a list of talking points, it's something that has emotional resonance with people.
I just think one thing needs to be absolutely clear.
The revenue-maximizing end state of college football realignment is an NFL-like top tier league of the elite 20-30 schools, leaving the Illinois' and Northwestern's and Purdue's out in the cold.
It is with a tremendous degree of naivete and arrogance that we proclaim the Big Ten the permanent victors and exalted few when we're blithely tossing overboard the brand identity that won us that position in the first place.
This Randian financial meritocracy ends badly for Illinois, not to mention anyone who loves college football FOR its flaws, rather than despite them.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
We'll just agree to disagree.
Absolutely on Florida, but I think generally Florida & the SEC is pretty much untouchable. Same for most of the Pac 12 & left coast.
Maybe on academics, but Clemson is a good school & certainly fits the big academically...Acadedmia takes GT first, but wouldn't hesitate on Clemson...but I think it is money/football that gets it to the presidents for a vote.
I think we are generally agreeing on UVA/UNC, academics are a home run, solid choice as Flagship school in desirable states, but they aren't going to bring the $ of Texas/ND (or Florida), both lack a bit on football, I think UNC has more football potential since VATech steals some of that in VA. But if it was all about academics why not throw Duke into the equation.
Can someone translate that to english?
Lol, sorry.
We're doing all this stuff about how making all these moves will make us more money. The most money the college football elite could possibly make is by consolidating into a 20-30 team national super-league. That is an alignment where Illinois gets left out in the cold. So by advocating for these totally cash-hungry approaches to reorganizing college football, we're sowing the seeds of our own destruction.
Ohio State and Michigan fans must look at Illinois fans sitting all high and mighty about which ACC/Big 12 football powerhouses we will ALLOW the Big Ten to STOOP to letting in the conference and wonder "who the heck do they think they're kidding?"
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Private, small-ish school. And we'll already have a university in NC. Overlap is no bueno. Plus, everybody hates Ratface.
Just busting your chops...& don't forget we are a football school now.
But you're right, other than a debatable piece of the Chicago market our football program hasn't held up there share of the deal.
The other side of this deal is the original big footprint is a generally a dying northern rustbelt with the population and power shifting south slowly. The SEC is clearly the best football conference on the field, but we are still winning the revenue battle. Also twisted into this tale is that we have an academic arrangement as well as an athletic deal, which makes it all interesting politics.
It is was mostly hypothetical, but couldn't we say the same about ND, just change that to 2 in IN & Ratface to Digger. + we don't yet have a school in NC. The real difference is football, ND brings an elite national football program.
Personally, I don't think the end game is determined yet. Delany seems content to continue to maximize revenue, shake the bushes to see what falls out and then makes a decision if they add value. If ND/Texas would join, then I think 16 could be the end as it would get harder to justify the next school without diluting value. If it is UNC/UVA, I don't think he hesitates to add ND/Texas.
The 20 scenario will appeal to a lot of traditional Big 10 fans, but I doubt we get much of a vote in this one. Throwing IU out is just an added bonus.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Bingo.
False. Northwestern is a relatively small private school and Purdue is 2nd or even 3rd-fiddle in their own state, but there is no way the flagship university in the 5th-largest state in the country is getting left out in the cold.