Bracketology

[Calvin]

I've seen comments and debate in different threads on our tournament chances, and thought it would be good to have the discussion in one place as the season progresses.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

has aggregated 24 bracketologists input, and will add more, I'm sure. There's a legend with Tiers showing who's got the longest history and accuracy, as well as who's new. As of 12/19, we're in 2 brackets (a tier 2 and a tier 4).

The compiled average suggests Illinois needs to pass 19 teams to get in. We'll have a number of opportunities in January to beef up our resume.

 

[illinitrav]

Somewhat off topic... Where can I find the RPI that the NCAA Tournament Committee uses? When I search RPI, I find about 5 different sites with 5 different rankings.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Somewhat off topic... Where can I find the RPI that the NCAA Tournament Committee uses? When I search RPI, I find about 5 different sites with 5 different rankings.

NCAA.com

 

[Whitman2020]

Somewhat off topic... Where can I find the RPI that the NCAA Tournament Committee uses? When I search RPI, I find about 5 different sites with 5 different rankings.

ESPN's is updated daily I believe.

 

[frozenrope9190]

I love the aggregate sites, where it's a whole bunch of prognosticators as opposed to just one person.

I think there's a lot of brand recognition in these early brackets. Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse jump out at me as schools that shouldn't be as solidly in as they're being listed (although I do understand some of the brackets are outdated). Should be interesting to see the changes in the coming weeks. Glad to see Illinois is as least relevant, as they never sniffed the board last year.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

ESPN's is updated daily I believe.

Incorrectly updated, though.

I love the aggregate sites, where it's a whole bunch of prognosticators as opposed to just one person.

I think there's a lot of brand recognition in these early brackets. Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse jump out at me as schools that shouldn't be as solidly in as they're being listed (although I do understand some of the brackets are outdated). Should be interesting to see the changes in the coming weeks. Glad to see Illinois is as least relevant, as they never sniffed the board last year.

It's hard to tell which of these sites are using "as of today" to do a bracket vs projecting results at the end of the season. Most seem to claim to do the former, but looking at their results it's hard to completely accept that.

 

[Golfer63]

A win at Maryland on the 27th, while not expected, would be huge if we could get it. It seems like a lot of "experts" are still very high on them; including one of the BTN guys who considers them the "4th best team in the league" right now. That's insane. I think they are similar to tOSU this year. There's talent in their starting 5, but they literally have no depth at all.

 

[Golfer63]

BTW I bet MSU sneaks into the tourney this year as a 9 or 10 seed and makes a run to the FF. Seems like to Total Michigan State Izzoesque Move.

 

[frozenrope9190]

It's hard to tell which of these sites are using "as of today" to do a bracket vs projecting results at the end of the season. Most seem to claim to do the former, but looking at their results it's hard to completely accept that.

Good point. I can't see Syracuse going through that gauntlet of the ACC without getting destroyed. ACC is just stacked this year, and if they can get into the tourney by knocking out NC, Duke, Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida State and to a smaller degree Miami, Clemson, NC State and Virginia Tech then more power to them.

 

[Illini1221]

Somewhat off topic... Where can I find the RPI that the NCAA Tournament Committee uses? When I search RPI, I find about 5 different sites with 5 different rankings.

I like to use CBS Sports. Just go to standings and click on Illinois and they have a whole resume with RPI and strength of schedule.

 

[Illini B-Ball Fan]

Some may need to use this link to correctly view the bracket matrix:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

[Calvin]

Incorrectly updated, though.



It's hard to tell which of these sites are using "as of today" to do a bracket vs projecting results at the end of the season. Most seem to claim to do the former, but looking at their results it's hard to completely accept that.

Given a number of teams get into the dance based on season-end conference tournaments, I would expect some to be projections. After that, you'd have to drill into the site to understand their method.

 

[illiniknight]

I like to use CBS Sports. Just go to standings and click on Illinois and they have a whole resume with RPI and strength of schedule.

On that same site you can see Jerry Palm's bracket prediction which currently has Illinois in as a 9 seed. I know way to early to matter but still nice to see.

 

[ballislife17]

I couldn't help but notice that none of our wins so far are projected to make the tournament. VCU and NC State are on the bubble but BYU wasn't projected by one person to make it

 

[TEYPAY]

Another site that I think is kind of interesting...
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/illinois-fighting-illini/bracketology

 

[JoseyWales83]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

This has Illinois as a 9 seed as of today.

 

[frozenrope9190]

I resorted the teams on the site by number of ballots a team is on instead of average ballot position, which seems to make more sense, then eliminated the teams that would only make it as a conference tourney champ. According to the 'matrix', these are the teams we have to pass to be a consensus tourney team, along with the last 4 teams in:

9 Syracuse ACC 14
11 TCU Big 12 14
11 Pittsburgh ACC 14
Oklahoma State Big 12 13
Rhode Island Atlantic 10 12
Virginia Commonwealth Atlantic 10 9
California Pacific-12 7
Colorado Pacific-12 7
Oklahoma Big 12 7
Wake Forest ACC 6
Texas Tech Big 12 6
San Diego State Mountain West 5
Temple American 4
North Carolina State ACC 4
Auburn SEC 4
Marquette Big East 4
Kansas State Big 12 4
Central Florida American 4
Houston American 3
Arkansas State Sun Belt 3
Illinois Big Ten 2
Stanford Pacific-12 2


I don't think we're that far from catching all of these teams; just have to keep winning. No losing to Penn St, Rutgers, MIZNOZ, Iowa or Minnesota. I'm going to see what these teams above us have for good wins and losses.

 

[Calvin]

I couldn't help but notice that none of our wins so far are projected to make the tournament. VCU and NC State are on the bubble but BYU wasn't projected by one person to make it

Yeah, this paints a pretty bad picture. One thing to take heart though, is that even though both those two are out in the aggregated matrix, *IF* they were in, they would be approximately a 12 seed. That would indicate they are approximately a top-50 win (12 x 4 = top 48 teams). We'll have to do better than that, but at least it's something. As far as BYU, even though no one has them, they're likely a top-100 win.

 

[Newman]

As of a couple days ago, Joe Lunardi still had 8 B1G teams making the dance. I think it'll be hard to predict which 8 but I think it's a pretty safe bet that we are still looking at 7-8 teams making the dance despite people saying it's a down year in the conference. It's not really a down year at the very top but it's still a really deep league.

 

[frozenrope9190]

OK, here's all the highlights and lowlights of the team in the bubble slop at this point. Basically anyone that has given a vote in the 'matrix' as an at-large but is not a consensus team in the tourney, plus the last 4 teams that are a consensus tourney team:

9 Syracuse ACC 6-4; Best Win: Monmouth! Losses to 3 Power 6 plus U Conn
11 TCU Big 12 10-1, beat Washington twice, Illinois St. and UNLV, lost to SMU
11 Pittsburgh ACC 9-2; Beat Maryland and Penn St; Lost to Duquesne(!) and SMU
Oklahoma State Big 12 9-2; beat Uconn, Georgetown + Wichita St, lost to Maryland
Rhode Island Atlantic 10 7-4; 4 losses including Houston, Valpo and Providence; beat Cincy
Virginia Commonwealth Atlantic 10 8-3; Best Win-LSU. 3 losses all to Power 6 including Illinois and G. Tech
California Pacific-12 9-2; Best Wins-Louisiana Tech and Princeton; lost to San Diego St.
Colorado Pacific-12 8-3; Beat Texas + Xavier; lost to Colorado St. and BYU
Oklahoma Big 12 6-4; Best Win-Clemson. Lost to N. Iowa, Memphis and Wichita St.
Wake Forest ACC 8-3; Best Wins-UTEP and C of Char; lost to Northwestern
Texas Tech Big 12 10-1; but all crappy teams; best win-Richmond; lost to Auburn
San Diego State Mountain West 5-4; Beat Cal but that's it; lost to Loyola and Grand Canyon
Temple American 8-4; Beat W. Virginia + Florida St; lost to New Hampshire, Umass and GW
North Carolina State ACC 9-2 but soft; best win-St. Joseph's and Loyola; lost to Illinois
Auburn SEC 8-2; best win Texas Tech + maybe UAB; lost to BC (almost lost to Mercer)
Marquette Big East 7-3; beat Georgia and Vandy; 3 losses to Power 6 tourney teams
Kansas State Big 12 10-1 but soft; best wins Wash St and Colorado St, lost to Maryland
Central Florida American 8-3; beat Miss St; lost to Penn and GW.
Houston American 9-2; beat Rhode Island + George Mason; lost to LSU + Arkansas
Arkansas State Sun Belt 9-2 as Mid-Major; beat Georgetown, lost to ND St and TCU
Illinois Big Ten 9-3; beat NC St, VCU and BYU; lost to Winthrop (gulp!)
Stanford Pacific-12 7-3; beat Seton Hall + Colorado St; no bad losses (Miami FL the worst)
Mississippi SEC 7-3; best win Memphis; lost to Middle Tennessee and Virginia Tech
Georgia SEC 7-3; no big wins (GW?) but no bad losses (Clemson or Marquette?)
Davidson Atlantic 10 5-4; Beat Ariz St and Mizzou; lost to College of Char.
Memphis American 8-3; beat Oklahoma and Iowa; lost to Monmouth
Tennessee SEC 6-5; beat Georgia Tech, lost to Chattanooga and 4 ranked teams

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Nice work, but....it's December 19th, so pace yourself.

 

[frozenrope9190]

I know that we have the tendency to talk about Illinois in a vacuum, or maybe against 1 other team that we're CLEARLY better or CLEARLY worse than, but looking at this list it's a big ol' slop pile of which Illinois is one. I didn't even do the teams that are higher on the consensus board that probably don't deserve it (Michigan St? Minnesota? Nevada? Arkansas? Wichita State's conference will hurt them, as will Valpo's.). Lots of similarities, and being in a Power 6 conference means we have the opportunity to pick up signature wins without a whole lot of bad loss chances. San Diego St. will not have that luxury, nor will Arkansas St. The American Conference seems to have every decent team in this mix, but no one really separated themselves except Cincinnati and perhaps SMU. Illinois isn't the only team that has a bad loss hanging over them. I'll take our position over Auburn's, who lost to BC and plays in the weaker SEC. And we have better wins than TCU who beat Washington twice, a non-tourney team at this point, although they don't have the bad Winthrop loss we do.

I still think 10-8 can leapfrog all of these teams. Texas Tech, Kansas St. and TCU are happy now, but are they going to get crushed in Big 12 play? Add Oklahoma to that. Cal better win some Pac 12 games or they're not going anywhere with their top win being Princeton. Pitt (a tourney team here) has the loss to Duquesne hanging over them. It won't be easy, but a 10-8 record should contain enough quality wins to get them over the hump. Beat Mizzou, then the Magic Number is 10.

 

[frozenrope9190]

Nice work, but....it's December 19th, so pace yourself.

Work is pretty....slow...today.

 

[champaignchris]

We've beaten some good but not great teams. We haven't lost to anyone particularly embarrassing. Even Winthrop is currently ranked in the 70s in RPI.

If we beat Missouri, our tourney fate will largely be decided by how we do in the Big 10. I think 11 combined wins between the regular season and BTT probably get us in, and 12 would definitely get us in.

You can sort the remaining games into three categories by Pomeroy:

Bad loss games we should win (5): Iowa 1/25, @ PSU 1/28, PSU 2/11, @ Neb 2/26, @ RU 3/4

Good win games we should lose (5): @ Ind. 1/7, Mich 1/11, @ PU 1/17, @ Mich 1/21, Wisc. 1/31

The swing games that will probably determine whether we dance (8): @ MD 12/27, Ohio St. 1/1, MD 1/14, Minn 2/4, @ NW 2/7, @ Iowa 2/18, NW 2/21, MSU 3/1

If we win all the first category (and Mizzou), lose all the second, and then win just the home games in the third, we should be dancing with an opening round win in the BTT.

 

[bleedsorangenblue]

Some good insights and analysis in this thread :thumb: I think it is pretty clear that no major damage has been done to our chances to make the tournament thus far. We will have many opportunities to advance our cause throughout the season and the potential to lay some eggs. I would like to see a season where we over-perform and are not sweating bullets on selection day. Remember what that feels like? I see the talent and the seeds of good team effort for this to happen.