Deleted member 29907
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I am guessing those interested in this thread open their Christmas presents before Halloween?
Some good insights and analysis in this thread :thumb: I think it is pretty clear that no major damage has been done to our chances to make the tournament thus far. We will have many opportunities to advance our cause throughout the season and the potential to lay some eggs. I would like to see a season where we over-perform and are not sweating bullets on selection day. Remember what that feels like? I see the talent and the seeds of good team effort for this to happen.
I could easily see them getting in, but unless their big guys somehow come back, I don't see them overcoming their injuries to make any kind of run.BTW I bet MSU sneaks into the tourney this year as a 9 or 10 seed and makes a run to the FF. Seems like to Total Michigan State Izzoesque Move.
I disagree. I think that Winthrop loss (even though they are a decent team) makes the standard we have to pass the rest of the year at least somewhat higher. At least we rebounded from that horrid stretch reasonably well.
I haven't been keeping track, but how many Big 10 teams have a worse loss than we do at this point? I'm genuinely curious. I have to imagine that when it comes to bad losses, more than half the conference has a worse loss than Winthrop. Anyone care to confirm or refute that?
Good win games we should lose (5): @ Ind. 1/7, Mich 1/11, @ PU 1/17, @ Mich 1/21, Wisc. 1/31
The swing games that will probably determine whether we dance (8): @ MD 12/27, Ohio St. 1/1, MD 1/14, Minn 2/4, @ NW 2/7, @ Iowa 2/18, NW 2/21, MSU 3/1
I haven't been keeping track, but how many Big 10 teams have a worse loss than we do at this point? I'm genuinely curious. I have to imagine that when it comes to bad losses, more than half the conference has a worse loss than Winthrop. Anyone care to confirm or refute that?
I'm bored. So looking at the 5-12 tier of the B1G (I assume Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan are the top 4; Rutgers and PSU are bottom 2).
Minnesota has only lost to FSU, that's good for them.
OSU lost to Florida Atlantic, worse than Winthrop.
NW's worst loss in ND, that's good for them.
Maryland has only lost to Pittsburgh... better than Winthrop.
MSU lost to Northeastern, probably worse than Winthrop, but pretty ballpark.
Iowa lost to Nebraska Omaha, worst than Winthrop.
Nebraska lost to Gardner Webb, worst than Winthrop.
Technically, Rutgers has only lost to Miami, which puts them right up there with Minnesota and NW on this test.
You can also toss in Fort Wayne for Indiana, which is very Winthrop-esqe.
You guys are crazy for looking up RPI and all that stuff. It's going to change so much in the next 4-6 weeks. Plus a good chunk of these teams will play their way off the bubble in that same time period (either solidly in or out of the tournament).
FWIW, I used kenpom and don't have work tomorrow. It might not mean much, but it's at least something to combat the posts people make about how we have no quality wins so far. But we're all a little crazy, I mean, it's mid December and we're in a bracketology thread.
FWIW, I used kenpom and don't have work tomorrow. It might not mean much, but it's at least something to combat the posts people make about how we have no quality wins so far. But we're all a little crazy, I mean, it's mid December and we're in a bracketology thread.
Are you sure you're using kenpom? The rankings on the main page have our wins at 56, 59 and 61, so no top 50 wins
The reason I noticed was because you have Providence listed as #50 as well
Bad loss games we should win (5): Iowa 1/25, @ PSU 1/28, PSU 2/11, @ Neb 2/26, @ RU 3/4
Good win games we should lose (5): @ Ind. 1/7, Mich 1/11, @ PU 1/17, @ Mich 1/21, Wisc. 1/31
The swing games that will probably determine whether we dance (8): @ MD 12/27, Ohio St. 1/1, MD 1/14, Minn 2/4, @ NW 2/7, @ Iowa 2/18, NW 2/21, MSU 3/1
If we win all the first category (and Mizzou), lose all the second, and then win just the home games in the third, we should be dancing with an opening round win in the BTT.
Are you sure you're using kenpom? The rankings on the main page have our wins at 56, 59 and 61, so no top 50 wins
The reason I noticed was because you have Providence listed as #50 as well
I wouldn't consider at home vs. Mich to be a "should lose" game. I would think it'd fall under the "swing games." I think we split with Mich this year. We win at home and lose on the road. Also, a loss at home to Minny would be a bad loss in my book. They are improved, but not on the level of the MD, tOSU, and Iowa's of the world.
I'd also put @PSU into the swing game. Did you see their game against St. Johns on Sunday. I know we are used to seeing them as below average to bottom feeder in the B1G but they brought in a talented freshman class this year. They will have some growing pains, and I don't expect them to go anywhere this year post season wise, but don't be surprised if they are dancing in the next couple years.
St John's, Oregon State, Missouri or Rutgers... who's the worst of the 4?
I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.
I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.
I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.
Minnesota, I'll give you, but Rutgers? I'm sorry, 11-1 they may be but they have played absolutely butt teams. Have they played anyone under a 150 in KenPom, even?