Bracketology

[ILLHangOut]

I've been contributing and seeing some comments regarding the post season in a few different threads, so I figured we could consolidate a more in-depth discussion in a single thread.

To get things started I'd like to share a few links for everyone.

NET rankings: What to know about college basketball's new tool to help select the NCAA tournament field

Official NCAA Net Rankings updated daily (midday, everyday)

Official NCAA RPI Archive updated daily (midday, everyday) - Very interesting resource - RPI and now NET rankings, Team Sheets, etc dating back to 1980

Today's Nitty Gritty Report

Today's Team Sheets (Illinois on Page 80)

Records by seed per round in NCAA tournament (does not include last years results)

 

[ILLHangOut]

With the victory over Ohio State yesterday Illinois improved from 94 to 80. This jump was aided by the fact that the loss to FAU is no longer considered a Quadrant 4 loss due to their ranking increase from 162 to 155.

Illinois currently has 3 Quandrant 3 losses which is their greatest blemish besides the obviously poor overall record. Two of those losses (Georgetown, and Xavier) are only a few spots from moving up to being Quadrant 2 losses which would be a huge help to Illinois' resume.

In the unlikely event that Illinois wins out, they'll have a very interesting resume. Since we're playing with hypotheticals lets also assume that Georgetown and Xavier become Q2 losses instead of Q3. Then Illinois will have played 15 games against Q1 and 11 against Q2. Compared to let's say Washington who currently has a 19-5 record, but projects to only have 4 Q1 games, and 7 Q2 games.

How does the committee value the difference in H1 (Q1 + Q2) games between the two teams considering illinois will have more H1 wins, total games, and losses than Washington?

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

Under that scenario I highly doubt it would be Washington that the Illini knocks out of the tourney unless the Huskies completely fall apart down the stretch. And to be honest I don't care what the NET and KenPom and other things "say," I think it would be a bad precedence if Washington won the Pac 12 regular season by 2 games but lost in the conference tournament and didn't get in. I just really hate seeing the devaluing of the conference schedule in college basketball. The Pac 12 is no different in than the BIG in regards to how tough it is to navigate through the conference regular season. Yes, the Pac 12 is not very good this season, but it is still hard to play against teams on which the players know each other because they play each other every year. By the way, I've seen Washington play a couple times on TV and they are a good team (definitely tourney worthy). And 3 of their 5 losses are against top 15 teams (two on the road and one neutral site). They lost to Gonzaga by 2 in one of those road losses. Their other out of conference loss is to Minnesota by 2 on a neutral court holiday tourney in the championship game. Right now I'd say should the Illini run the table they'd be more likely to be knocking out Ariz. St., Temple or Indiana who are currently 3 of Lunardi's last 4 in teams.

 

[ChiefGritty]

The Pac 12 is no different in than the BIG in regards to how tough it is to navigate through the conference regular season. Yes, the Pac 12 is not very good this season, but it is still hard to play against teams on which the players know each other because they play each other every year.

The same is true of the Sun Belt or the MAAC or whatever. Teams should get in if their resumes are deserving.

Washington is comfortably in the field at the moment, FWIW.

 

[ChiefGritty]

In the unlikely event that Illinois wins out, they'll have a very interesting resume.

Say we win out all the way until the BTT final, and lose in the BTT final. That would put our record at 19-16. We would have (presumably, barring upsets in the BTT) six wins over teams in the top 17 of the Kenpom, 5 of the 6 away from home, all in less than two months. We'd be 14-2 in our last 16 games. We might very well be ranked.

For comparison, Alabama made the tournament last year at 19-15, with a similar constellation of really good wins, though only @Florida and a couple in the SEC Tourney away from home, and were 6-9 in their last 15 games. They got a 9 seed.

We're easily in if we win out through Sunday at the BTT.

HOWEVER

Of those six wins over the top 17, we currently only have two of them, including the only home game. I'm willing to start whispering this conversation if we beat Wisconsin, but before that it seems way premature. If we lose to Wisky and Purdue on the road, two games in which we'll be significant underdogs even considering how well we're playing, we have no path to an at-large even winning everything else.

 

[illiniCA]

Xavier is up 10 on Providence (on FOX) for those interested

 

[jrichisamazing]

Here are the Kenpom vs NET ranking for the B1G. Kenpom listed first

Michigan St 4 vs 7
Michigan 6 vs 8
Purdue 10 vs 11
Wisconsin 11 vs 15
Maryland 18 vs 21
Iowa 25 vs 28
Nebraska 33 vs 38
Ohio St 38 vs 44
Minnesota 46 vs 58
Indiana 47 vs 51
Penn St 57 vs 70
Illinois 66 vs 80
Northwestern 69 vs 97
Rutgers 85 vs 112

Literally every team is lower in NET than Kenpom. I'm not exactly sure why, but I'm pretty sure it has to do with SOS and lack of wins. Mainly because Illinois, Penn St, and Rutgers all got beat up by really tough schedules and all 3 have the biggest difference in ranking.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Thanks, jrich, good stuff!!

 

[BlueLeader]

Illini NET 3rd quadrant: 2-3.

Yikes.

 

[bombayIllini]

Feb 15, 2019 :: Most Quadrant 1 Wins on Team Sheets (Feb. 15): Illinois Gets Another, Michigan State Still No. 1

Brad Underwood's team is one of 38 teams with at least three Quadrant 1 wins on their Team Sheet.

:wave: :thumb:

 

[Deleted member 4333]

Sunday, Feb 17, 2019:

Standings (hopefully I have this right):
1. Michigan :: 12 - 3
2. MI State :: 12 - 3
3. Purdue :: 11 - 3
4. Maryland :: 10 - 5 :: @Iowa / tOSU / @Penn State / Michigan / Minn
5. Iowa :: 9 - 5 :: Maryland / Indiana / @tOSU / Rutgers / @Wisconsin / @Nebraska
6, Wisconsin :: 9 - 5 :: Illinois / @Northwestern / @Indiana / Penn State / Iowa / @tOSU
7. Minn :: 7 - 8 :: Michigan / @Rutgers / @Northwestern / Purdue / @Maryland
8. tOSU :: 6 - 8 :: Northwestern / @Maryland / Iowa / @Purdue / @Northwestern / Wisconsin
9. Illinois :: 6 - 8 :: @Wisconsin / Penn State / @Purdue / Northwestern / Indiana / @Penn State
10. Rutgers ::
11. Indiana ::
12. Nebraska ::
13. Northwestern ::
14. Penn State ::

No way we run the table, but a legitimate shot at 10-10 in conference. That would be amazing.

 

[bombayIllini]

Feb 15, 2019 :: NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NET RANKINGS

 

[ILLHangOut]

Illini NET 3rd quadrant: 2-3.

Yikes.

Good chance Xavier moves up to Q2 after beating Providence. Illini need all helpnthey can get.

Might be a stupid question, but if the NCAA made their own ranking system, why not just take the top 68 teams and put them in the tournament? Only thing you would have to do is replace the lowest ranked at large teams with conference tournament winners outside the top 68.

To me it seems like the NCAA tried to put all it's criteria used during the selection process and put it into a ranking system. Why use a committee at all? Doesn't the ranking do all the talking? What else could possible be discussed that the rankings don't already show (besides the eye test which is bs)?

For the record, I don't like the NET ranking and I think it's just as flawed as RPI. My hope is one day we use an aggregate of the best advanced stats (Kenpom, Sagarin, etc) and do what I just said. No committee necessary, no bias involved.

The official team sheets include all of those additonal rankings; such as, kenpom, sagarin, sos, sor, etc.

I don’t *think* the NCAA intended NET to be a definitive ranking. I think they wanted a ranking that awarded teams for playing a tough road schedule. Thats my impression at least.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...re-could-be-net-winners-losers/?noredirect=on

After reading that article, it sounds like their approach was to award bonus points to road and neutral games using the quadrants, and then normalize the outcomes using margin of victory, and efficiency statistics. It also sounds like they may have done a poor job.

Illini winning out would be great for exposing the committees thought process. Illini will end up with 5 to 7 TOTAL Q3 and Q4 games played. Some tournament teams will likely have 3 times that many! Imo, it will be a great test to see what the committee values and could set the stage for how teams schedule in the future.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your idea, but I’m not convinced they’re ready for that. I like committee as a sanity check. This year especially, the Illini could really benefit from the committee respecting their schedule strength.

 

[ChiefIlliniwek05]

Can someone explain to me why tOSU has been locked in as a 9 seed for what seems to be forever? Is it simply because they have a 16-9 overall record? I'm looking at their schedule, and I only see a few quality wins (@CIN, vs MINN, vs Bucknell by 2 points, @NEB, @IND). Why schedule a tough non-conference schedule when you can rack up wins early in the season and cruise into the tournament?

 

[DeeForThr33]

Decent likelihood Xavier and Georgetown move into Quad 2. If we win out, we’ll finish 13-14 in Quad 1/2 games. Including 5-7 Quad 1 wins. Our Kenpom/Sargin/NET will all likely move into the top 50ish. Only thing holding us back would be FAU loss+high loss count and a likely high RPI. Would be one of the craziest resumes ever. Would really answer a ton of questions for how the committee values NET, SOS, etc. but I would rather take a team that’s 13-14 in Quad 1/2 versus a team that’s 6-11.

 

[EllderIlliniFan]

Is the NCAA tournament supposed to have the best 64/68 teams or the teams with the best records? It would seem that they are trying to get the best teams. If the Illini win out or even go 5-1, they certainly should be considered in the best 64 teams in spite of their record. They would have defeated 5 or 6 BIG10 teams that will make the tournament and 2 of those wins would be on the road.

 

[Illini0114]

imo, unless we win tonite, this is all banter

Somewhat agree. But I still think the discussion can be had if we go 5 of 6 down the stretch. That would put us at 17-17 with 2 wins in the B1G tourney.

Like others have said, if this all would happen it would be a very interesting resume . A lot of losses but a lot of good wins and a 11-9 record in what is largely considered the best(deepest) conference in bball this year

 

[ChiefIllini]

If we go 17-17, I think we are squarely on the bubble, but still get left off. 18-17 probably pushes us in. Theres such a long way to go for either of those situations though. Beating Wisc tonight would put us in a great situation.

Honestly, the easiest way in is to win the BTT.

 

[sacraig]

If we go 17-17, I think we are squarely on the bubble, but still get left off. 18-17 probably pushes us in. Theres such a long way to go for either of those situations though. Beating Wisc tonight would put us in a great situation.

Honestly, the easiest way in is to win the BTT.

This is why we need to make sure we get a first round bye in the BTT first and foremost. I mean, it's still a bit of a pipe dream to somehow actually make the tournament this year, but if our best play is to win the BTT, then it helps immensely to not have to play on the first day. That's probably an even larger factor than the teams we would have to play along the way.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Most likely, yes we would be in at 35 games played because that probably means we won the BTT. However, if we lost the BTT we ain't in with that record.

If we go 5-1 rest of the regular season, then we could get to 17-17 by losing in the semis (assuming a first round bye.) 18-17 would be a finals loss. Not sure if you were implying to get to 18 wins and 17 losses we need to win the BTT, but that isn't the case.

 

[PlayAZ]

Sorry if posted previously, but Andy Katz latest Power 36 poll as our beloved coming in at 28.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...tball-rankings-duke-gonzaga-take-over-top-two

 

[sacraig]

Sorry if posted previously, but Andy Katz latest Power 36 poll as our beloved coming in at 28.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...tball-rankings-duke-gonzaga-take-over-top-two

 

[bobbob]

That’s my main question...what sanity does the committee provide that the advanced stats don’t already? In our case, let’s say we did win out and end up ranked around 45-55 in all the advanced stats. That says we should be in right? The only thing the committee could do to screw us over is say we simply don’t have enough wins despite the strong schedule.

The advanced stats (i.e. kenpom) don't measure who is the best, they measure who is the most efficient. And they use a definition of "efficient" that was created by the stats guy.
Using them as a strict ranking of who is "better" is not using the stat the way it is meant to be used.

Using a committee allows various definitions of "best" to be considered.

Also, being ranked 50th would generally not get a team in, there aren't that many at-large spots.

 

[foby]

If we go 5-1 rest of the regular season, then we could get to 17-17 by losing in the semis (assuming a first round bye.) 18-17 would be a finals loss. Not sure if you were implying to get to 18 wins and 17 losses we need to win the BTT, but that isn't the case.

No. Let me reword. 18-17 most likely ain't gonna get us in. If we lose a game in the regular season then winning BTT is only path.

 

[ILLHangOut]

No. Let me reword. 18-17 most likely ain't gonna get us in. If we lose a game in the regular season then winning BTT is only path.

What is your rationale? You very well could be right. NCAA created NET though, and the Quadrants. How they'll compare a team like UCF to Illini is yet to be seen. UCF will have played 9 or 10 H1 games, while Illini will have played 25.

That’s my main question...what sanity does the committee provide that the advanced stats don’t already? In our case, let’s say we did win out and end up ranked around 45-55 in all the advanced stats. That says we should be in right? The only thing the committee could do to screw us over is say we simply don’t have enough wins despite the strong schedule.

I played with Excel a bit, and this would be the tourney assuming that the team with the highest NET wins each conference tournament, then filling in the at large bids as you suggested. If there are upsets in one bid conferences; for example, Buffalo doesn't win the MAC, or Washington win the PAC12, then obviously these at large bids start dissolving. And yes, in this scenario the PAC12 is a one-bid conference.

In this scenario, our biggest competition would be: TCU, Clemson, Ohio State, Furman, St. Johns, St Mary's, and Syracuse. If we leapfrogged any of those teams we'd be in. Honestly, at first glance it seems pretty fair. The big question is if we win out, or lose one, and then don't leapfrog. If we win, I think Illini *should* be ranked higher than all of those teams based on strength of schedule.

(I can't seem to get

working on this site, so here's a CSV you can copy into Excel for the curious. Also, note the Last Four In are just the four lowest at large bids in this list. I realize that is not truly how the seeding works, but I decided not to put in that effort since the field would be unchanged.)

Correction to CSV:

Type,Conference,NET Rank,School,Field Rank,Seed
Auto,ACC,1,Duke,1,1
Auto,WCC,2,Gonzaga,2,1
At Large,ACC,3,Virginia,3,1
Auto,AAC,4,Houston,4,1
Auto,SEC,5,Kentucky,5,2
At Large,SEC,6,Tennessee,6,2
Auto,Big Ten,7,Michigan St.,7,2
At Large,Big Ten,8,Michigan,8,2
At Large,ACC,9,North Carolina,9,3
Auto,Big 12,10,Texas Tech,10,3
Auto,MWC,11,Nevada,11,3
At Large,Big Ten,12,Purdue,12,3
At Large,Big 12,13,Iowa St.,13,4
At Large,ACC,14,Virginia Tech,14,4
At Large,Big Ten,15,Wisconsin,15,4
At Large,SEC,16,LSU,16,4
At Large,ACC,17,Louisville,17,5
At Large,Big 12,18,Kansas,18,5
Auto,Big East,19,Marquette,19,5
At Large,Big East,20,Villanova,20,5
At Large,SEC,21,Auburn,21,6
At Large,ACC,22,Florida St.,22,6
Auto,MAC,23,Buffalo,23,6
At Large,SEC,24,Mississippi St.,24,6
At Large,Big Ten,25,Maryland,25,7
Auto,SoCon,26,Wofford,26,7
At Large,AAC,27,Cincinnati,27,7
At Large,Big Ten,28,Iowa,28,7
At Large,Big 12,29,Kansas St.,29,8
At Large,SEC,30,Ole Miss,30,8
Auto,Pac-12,31,Washington,31,8
At Large,ACC,32,NC State,32,8
At Large,SEC,33,Florida,33,9
At Large,MWC,34,Utah St.,34,9
At Large,Big 12,35,Texas,35,9
At Large,Big 12,36,Baylor,36,9
Auto,ASUN,37,Lipscomb,37,10
At Large,Big 12,38,Oklahoma,38,10
At Large,Big Ten,39,Nebraska,39,10
At Large,AAC,40,UCF,40,10
At Large,Big 12,41,TCU,41,11
At Large,ACC,42,Clemson,42,11
Auto,Atlantic 10,43,VCU,43,11
At Large,Big Ten,44,Ohio St.,44,11
Last Four,SoCon,45,Furman,45,12
Last Four,Big East,46,St. John's (NY),46,12
Last Four,WCC,47,Saint Mary's (CA),47,12
Last Four,ACC,48,Syracuse,48,12
Auto,CAA,58,Hofstra,49,13
Auto,OVC,59,Belmont,50,13
Auto,WAC,61,New Mexico St.,51,13
Auto,Ivy League,65,Yale,52,13
Auto,America East,66,Vermont,53,14
Auto,C-USA,81,Old Dominion,54,14
Auto,Summit League,99,South Dakota St.,55,14
Auto,Big West,102,UC Irvine,56,14
Auto,Sun Belt,108,Texas St.,57,15
Auto,Big Sky,109,Montana,58,15
Auto,Horizon,110,Northern Ky.,59,15
Auto,MVC,124,Loyola Chicago,60,15
Auto,Big South,133,Radford,61,16
Auto,Patriot,152,Colgate,62,16
Auto,Southland,159,Abilene Christian,63,16
Auto,MAAC,194,Rider,64,16
Auto,SWAC,221,Texas Southern,65,17
Auto,NEC,230,Fairleigh Dickinson,66,17
Auto,MEAC,258,Norfolk St.,67,17