Bracketology

#4
I'm personally fond of the bracket matrix web site.
http://bracketmatrix.com

This site averages the thoughts of a large number of estimators. Currently there are 75 estimators, but the number will go up as the tournament approaches.

Interestingly enough, they also have us as a 9 seed, but not playing Marquette, as they are also a 9 seed

By the way, we were a low 11 seed last week on this site.
 
#5
Cincinnati, OH
I'm personally fond of the bracket matrix web site.
http://bracketmatrix.com

This site averages the thoughts of a large number of estimators. Currently there are 75 estimators, but the number will go up as the tournament approaches.

Interestingly enough, they also have us as a 9 seed, but not playing Marquette, as they are also a 9 seed

By the way, we were a low 11 seed last week on this site.


And for those wanting to guzzle the kool aid, here is a bracket with Illinois as a 6-seed (used on bracketmatrix)

https://madeformarch.blogspot.com
 
#6
Instead of calling it a National tournament they could call it BIG plus. Love to see 8 BIG’s in sweet 16.
 
#9
New York
Good analysis by Robert
https://www.illiniboard.com/story/2020/1/14/the-rest-of-the-way/

Basically he says we’re slightly over ranked at 24 (I don’t disagree) and we’re probably closer to 9 seed territory right now (which is basically the consensus among tourney projections). Then he picks out 5 likely upcoming wins, 5 likely losses, and says that assuming we go 5-5 across those (reasonable guess, of course far from certain), how successful our season is will be determined by the remaining four toss up games - Maryland at home, Iowa at home (we’ll be favored here), and Rutgers and PSU on the road. Win 4, 13-7 conference record and a 6 seed. Lose 4, 9-11 and maybe the bad side of the bubble.

Of course nothing can be projected with any reliability, but based on where we sit today, his guesses seem even handed and reasonable IMO.

I get why we're ranked. It's hard not to rank us when you transitive-property your way through the Big Ten. You're filling out your poll and you want to keep Michigan in the rankings even though they're 11-5 now (I mean, they're the only team to beat number one Gonzaga) but Illinois is 12-5 and beat Michigan so Illinois has to be ranked. You're thinking about ranking Purdue after they knocked off Michigan State but how can you when Purdue lost to Illinois by 26? Rutgers showed a lot beating Penn State and Seton Hall and the NERDstats love them but Rutgers just lost to Illinois. Wisconsin knocked off Ohio State on the road - that's huge. Then again, Wisconsin just lost at home to Illinois. And which team is all alone in second place in the Big Ten? Illinois.

That's why we're ranked. We're hard to ignore. BUT, I don't think we're the 24th-best team in the country. There's a gap there, which means there's a correction coming. Which is fine! It won't be fun, but it will be fine.
take the 10 games above and I have a good feeling that we'll be 5-5. Beat Michigan State at home and we're probably losing to Northwestern on the road.

That means we're down to the four games that define the season:

  • Maryland in Champaign
  • Rutgers in Piscataway
  • Penn State in State College
  • Iowa in Champaign
Win all four? 13-7 and probably looking at a 6-seed.

Lose all four? 9-11 and probably needing several BTT wins to get to the good side of the bubble.

2-2? 11-9 and playing those BTT games to slide up or down the 8-9-10 seed lines.
 
#12
Chambana
The way I see it:

If we assume 11-9 gets us solidly in, we’ve gotta go 7-7 the rest of the way.

Of that, we have 7 home games & 7 away games.

If we assume MSU at home is a likely loss & Northwestern on the road is a likely win, we just have to win 6 of 7 at home & 1 of 7 on the road to get in.

Any game outside of MSU that we lose at home, we must steal an additional win on the road.
 
#16
New York
2 seed Tennessee was in Columbus last year and would have faced the 7 seed Cincy in what would have been a road game, essentially, except Iowa beat Cincy in opening round. In 2017, when South Carolina went to the final four as a 7 seed, they beat 2 seed Duke in the second round in Greenville SC. Duke fans were going crazy that they got put into a road game. So the short answer is yes, the committee has screwed and can screw high seeds in terms of matchups based on location
 
#17
Prediction:

Ten, I repeat TEN B1G teams will make it to the tourney this year.

Possibly 11 which would tie the old Big East record if I remember correctly.
 
Likes: RML
#18
The way I see it:

If we assume 11-9 gets us solidly in, we’ve gotta go 7-7 the rest of the way.

Of that, we have 7 home games & 7 away games.

If we assume MSU at home is a likely loss & Northwestern on the road is a likely win, we just have to win 6 of 7 at home & 1 of 7 on the road to get in.

Any game outside of MSU that we lose at home, we must steal an additional win on the road.
Road win at Rutgers is less likely than home win vs MSU. Don’t see that as a automatic loss. Just need to shoot at a reasonable rate.
 
Likes: RML
#20
Oregon
2 seed Tennessee was in Columbus last year and would have faced the 7 seed Cincy in what would have been a road game, essentially, except Iowa beat Cincy in opening round. In 2017, when South Carolina went to the final four as a 7 seed, they beat 2 seed Duke in the second round in Greenville SC. Duke fans were going crazy that they got put into a road game. So the short answer is yes, the committee has screwed and can screw high seeds in terms of matchups based on location
I will never forget.

https://www.sj-r.com/x497786191/Winters-cannot-forget-84-NCAA-loss-to-Kentucky
 
#21
Road win at Rutgers is less likely than home win vs MSU. Don’t see that as a automatic loss. Just need to shoot at a reasonable rate.
I agree. Been saying since the start of the conference schedule, hold serve at home and beat NW on road and we're in. The win at Wisconsin gives the Illini some breathing room. No reason can't beat MSU at home. They just lost to Purdue by 29 on the road and only beat NW by 5 on the road. I didn't think Illini lost on road to MSU because of bad match ups. They just played uninspired and couldn't hit a shot. Won't be an easy win, but definitely not an automatic loss. Every game on the road except for NW will be as tough or tougher than MSU at home.
 
Likes: Ga65
#23
Don't want to pee in anyone's Koolaid, but torvik has us losing 6 of our next 9 games.

Before you do a spit take, he does still have us finishing 11-9 in conference.

Point is, don't be surprised if we hit kind of a rough patch the next month or so. And if we win 4 or 5 that sets us up very well.
 
#24
Bonnaroo Land
Don't want to pee in anyone's Koolaid, but torvik has us losing 6 of our next 9 games.

Before you do a spit take, he does still have us finishing 11-9 in conference.

Point is, don't be surprised if we hit kind of a rough patch the next month or so. And if we win 4 or 5 that sets us up very well.
Good thing Torvik doesn't play the games. #UrineFreeKoolaid
 
#25
Would they really screw over a 1-seed by making them potentially play an 8-seed Illinois in St. Louis??
That bracket would potentially line up very well for the ILLINI, even outside of fan participation. That imo would be the bracket we would want to be in, if all things were the same (other teams etc).