Latest Bracketology has Illini as a #9 seed (playing Marquette).
I'm personally fond of the bracket matrix web site.
This site averages the thoughts of a large number of estimators. Currently there are 75 estimators, but the number will go up as the tournament approaches.
Interestingly enough, they also have us as a 9 seed, but not playing Marquette, as they are also a 9 seed
By the way, we were a low 11 seed last week on this site.
An Indy Regional between us, Michigan, Minnesota and Indiana- B1G tournament redux.
I get why we're ranked. It's hard not to rank us when you transitive-property your way through the Big Ten. You're filling out your poll and you want to keep Michigan in the rankings even though they're 11-5 now (I mean, they're the only team to beat number one Gonzaga) but Illinois is 12-5 and beat Michigan so Illinois has to be ranked. You're thinking about ranking Purdue after they knocked off Michigan State but how can you when Purdue lost to Illinois by 26? Rutgers showed a lot beating Penn State and Seton Hall and the NERDstats love them but Rutgers just lost to Illinois. Wisconsin knocked off Ohio State on the road - that's huge. Then again, Wisconsin just lost at home to Illinois. And which team is all alone in second place in the Big Ten? Illinois.
That's why we're ranked. We're hard to ignore. BUT, I don't think we're the 24th-best team in the country. There's a gap there, which means there's a correction coming. Which is fine! It won't be fun, but it will be fine.
take the 10 games above and I have a good feeling that we'll be 5-5. Beat Michigan State at home and we're probably losing to Northwestern on the road.
That means we're down to the four games that define the season:
Win all four? 13-7 and probably looking at a 6-seed.
- Maryland in Champaign
- Rutgers in Piscataway
- Penn State in State College
- Iowa in Champaign
Lose all four? 9-11 and probably needing several BTT wins to get to the good side of the bubble.
2-2? 11-9 and playing those BTT games to slide up or down the 8-9-10 seed lines.
Road win at Rutgers is less likely than home win vs MSU. Don’t see that as a automatic loss. Just need to shoot at a reasonable rate.The way I see it:
If we assume 11-9 gets us solidly in, we’ve gotta go 7-7 the rest of the way.
Of that, we have 7 home games & 7 away games.
If we assume MSU at home is a likely loss & Northwestern on the road is a likely win, we just have to win 6 of 7 at home & 1 of 7 on the road to get in.
Any game outside of MSU that we lose at home, we must steal an additional win on the road.
I will never forget.2 seed Tennessee was in Columbus last year and would have faced the 7 seed Cincy in what would have been a road game, essentially, except Iowa beat Cincy in opening round. In 2017, when South Carolina went to the final four as a 7 seed, they beat 2 seed Duke in the second round in Greenville SC. Duke fans were going crazy that they got put into a road game. So the short answer is yes, the committee has screwed and can screw high seeds in terms of matchups based on location
Road win at Rutgers is less likely than home win vs MSU. Don’t see that as a automatic loss. Just need to shoot at a reasonable rate.
Good thing Torvik doesn't play the games. #UrineFreeKoolaidDon't want to pee in anyone's Koolaid, but torvik has us losing 6 of our next 9 games.
Before you do a spit take, he does still have us finishing 11-9 in conference.
Point is, don't be surprised if we hit kind of a rough patch the next month or so. And if we win 4 or 5 that sets us up very well.