Bracketology

#26
Don't want to pee in anyone's Koolaid, but torvik has us losing 6 of our next 9 games.

Before you do a spit take, he does still have us finishing 11-9 in conference.

Point is, don't be surprised if we hit kind of a rough patch the next month or so. And if we win 4 or 5 that sets us up very well.
Let me guess -- he has the 6 losses being the 5 road games and the MSU home game. I have no idea who Torvik is, but I hope he/it doesn't spend a lot of time crunching numbers to come up with that analysis.
 
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#27
I'm personally fond of the bracket matrix web site.
http://bracketmatrix.com

This site averages the thoughts of a large number of estimators. Currently there are 75 estimators, but the number will go up as the tournament approaches.

Interestingly enough, they also have us as a 9 seed, but not playing Marquette, as they are also a 9 seed

By the way, we were a low 11 seed last week on this site.
I love this team but I’m not jumping on the bandwagon yet, I would love to see how they handle success! Go ILLINI!
 
#28
For a trip down memory lane, here are the locations we have been sent to over the last twenty years (theoretically "protected" seeds):

2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO :cool:
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC

This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
 
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#30
Just North of the Southern border!
I have not taken a hard look at the numbers (of other teams).

However, just looking at IL, we are playing on-steroids D and have a serviceable O.

The other factor I see is that this team's O or D is not impacted by what happens at the other end. It is almost like the O and D are two diff, disjointed games.

And, this team has elevated their game in the B10.

So, to bundle the losses to Miami, Missouri, Arizona - IMHO - will not reflect well in a stat-based comment. Weights are an important component. (IF those (AZ, Miami, MO) games were played today - which is what this team is doing - playing today - I submit the results will be different.)

So. I see this team holding all home games, with the MSU game being a tossup. Their D will carry them.

On away games, I am very bullish. The one game that concerns me is the one at PSU - just not enough days to recover between TWO away games. It does not mean we will win. But, we will win our fair share - I would say (at this time) 4 at the very least.
 
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#31
One thing I noticed with Lunardi's bracket is that if we beat Marquette, then we'd play Gonzaga in a road contest in Spokane.

And before anyone asks, Gonzaga is not normally the host of the 1st 2 rounds of games in Spokane. It's normally Washington State or, in this year's case, Idaho.
 
#32
Instead of calling it a National tournament they could call it BIG plus. Love to see 8 BIG’s in sweet 16.
I’d love to see 11 B1G teams in and no teams play each other until the sweet 16 at the earliest.
 
#33
Good analysis by Robert
https://www.illiniboard.com/story/2020/1/14/the-rest-of-the-way/

Basically he says we’re slightly over ranked at 24 (I don’t disagree) and we’re probably closer to 9 seed territory right now (which is basically the consensus among tourney projections). Then he picks out 5 likely upcoming wins, 5 likely losses, and says that assuming we go 5-5 across those (reasonable guess, of course far from certain), how successful our season is will be determined by the remaining four toss up games - Maryland at home, Iowa at home (we’ll be favored here), and Rutgers and PSU on the road. Win 4, 13-7 conference record and a 6 seed. Lose 4, 9-11 and maybe the bad side of the bubble.

Of course nothing can be projected with any reliability, but based on where we sit today, his guesses seem even handed and reasonable IMO.
If 13-7 is a 6 seed this year somethings wrong. I predict the season champion to have 15 wins so 13 might be 2nd or 3rd place in the strongest conference in the country...
 
#34
Don't want to pee in anyone's Koolaid, but torvik has us losing 6 of our next 9 games.

Before you do a spit take, he does still have us finishing 11-9 in conference.

Point is, don't be surprised if we hit kind of a rough patch the next month or so. And if we win 4 or 5 that sets us up very well.
So does Kenpom. After Northwestern, we have a brutal 8 game stretch. By Kenpom's game rating system, we have 7 A games and 1 B game (similar to quad 1 and 2 I think).
 
#35
If 13-7 is a 6 seed this year somethings wrong. I predict the season champion to have 15 wins so 13 might be 2nd or 3rd place in the strongest conference in the country...
Sure, but if MSU wins the Big Ten at 15-5, they could conceivably end up down at a 3 seed still. I went back and looked at 2009, we were 24-9 (11-7 plus 1-1 in BTT), tied for second in the conference, and we were a 5 seed. This year 23-11 (13-7 plus hypothetical 1-1 in BTT) makes a 6 seed seem possible. As good as the conference is, for the sake of this discussion, you have to remember our non-conference schedule was week and we didn't look very good during it.
 
#36
Let me guess -- he has the 6 losses being the 5 road games and the MSU home game. I have no idea who Torvik is, but I hope he/it doesn't spend a lot of time crunching numbers to come up with that analysis.
Yep. That would put us at 7-8 in the B1G with a lot of people melting down on here, but with us set up to finish 11-9. He also shows us as having the easiest of remaining schedules in the B1G. And yes barttorvik does spend some time crunching numbers. I use him since I don't subscribe to KenPom. He has us ranked 31 in the nation now (10th in the B1G), and IIRC had us at 18 to begin the season which seemed rather hopeful given last year's results.
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois

But things never work out as expected. The margin between winning and losing is very small which can and does cut both ways. And since we are playing better as of late, like most everyone on here, I am hopeful that we outplay our ranking.
 
#39
South Carolina
For a trip down memory lane, here are the locations we have been sent to over the last twenty years (theoretically "protected" seeds):

2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO :cool:
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC

This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
Nice. Thanks!

And interestingly, ESPN in 2006 rated us the #6 college basketball program of all time, one spot behind IND as I recall.

You should include sites for the prior 20 years to make the analysis complete, dating back to NCAA bracket expansion (beyond 32 teams).

Lots of great seeds over the past 40 years!
 
#41
I don't know if that would be screwing them over or not. We haven't played very well in St. Louis the last 2 years.
I'm not sure how relevant that is. If we were a 1-seed and we got sent to Tampa to play an 8-seed Florida, I would not care what their record was there recently ... I would feel pretty screwed over.

(And I would confidently bet there would be a lot more Illini fans in St. Louis cheering on their 8-seed team than Florida fans in Tampa cheering on their 8-seed team.)
 
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#44
Washington State
One thing I noticed with Lunardi's bracket is that if we beat Marquette, then we'd play Gonzaga in a road contest in Spokane.

And before anyone asks, Gonzaga is not normally the host of the 1st 2 rounds of games in Spokane. It's normally Washington State or, in this year's case, Idaho.
Well if it happens, I’ll be there!
 
#47
Illini optimist
Charleston
As someone who went to grad school in North Carolina, today’s NET rankings may be the most delicious thing since a good biscuit:
Having worked at RTP, that’s about the most beautifulthing I’ve ever seen.
 
#48
For a trip down memory lane, here are the locations we have been sent to over the last twenty years (theoretically "protected" seeds):

2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO :cool:
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC

This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
2002 I don’t think we were under seeded. That was Maryland’s year and had a lot of teams that had more wins than us. 2004 we got screwed after losing to providence and starting slow in conference. But we were the outright conference champs and should’ve been an elite 8 team. 2006 they really hung on for dear life in keeping is ranked in top 15 for too long. Just didn’t have the real pieces we needed but to be a top 10 team.
 
#49
I'm not sure how relevant that is. If we were a 1-seed and we got sent to Tampa to play an 8-seed Florida, I would not care what their record was there recently ... I would feel pretty screwed over.

(And I would confidently bet there would be a lot more Illini fans in St. Louis cheering on their 8-seed team than Florida fans in Tampa cheering on their 8-seed team.)
My hunch is there'd be more Illini fans in Tampa for an 8 seed Illini team than Florida fans in STL for a 1 seed Florida team.
 
#50
The way I see it:

If we assume 11-9 gets us solidly in, we’ve gotta go 7-7 the rest of the way.

Of that, we have 7 home games & 7 away games.

If we assume MSU at home is a likely loss & Northwestern on the road is a likely win, we just have to win 6 of 7 at home & 1 of 7 on the road to get in.

Any game outside of MSU that we lose at home, we must steal an additional win on the road.
Agreed. This is a very simple way of making sure we stay on track for a tourney berth.

What is the consensus on our easiest road games left? From easiest to hardest I will say...

Northwestern
Iowa
Penn St
Rutgers
Purdue
Michigan
Ohio St (I think they'll be a well oiled machine by the end of the year)

But I think this year it really depends on when we play each team. I never feel good about playing a team that's pissed off about a loss. And especially not this year with almost everyone fighting for tourney hopes/seeding. Perfect example is Wisconsin will probably get stomped tomorrow night because MSU will be on a mission after the way they lost @Purdue.