Illini Basketball 2016-2017

[whovous]

I am over my head here, but most of the red is at the bottom of the chart, which is where the bench players live. It tells me those players are below the average of typical B1G starters. Which tells us all why they are bench players.

 

[urbanite]

For comparison, here is Wisconsin (the best team in the Big Ten by KenPom's model). There's still a lot of red.

 

[whovous]

Hmm, Zak Showalter does not come off a lot better than Jaylon Tate. I would not have guessed that.

 

[EfremWinters84]

Food for discussion: tempo-free stats, per 100 possessions:

It's worth noting Hill and Black are ranked 4th and 9th, respectively, in points per possession among all players in the Big Ten that have a %APP of 20% or above.

%APP is percent of available possessions played. It's a bit misleading because it looks only at the games a player played in. For example, if a team played three games, and a player played half the possessions in two games but sat out the entire third game, their %APP would be 50%. This isn't supposed to be an exact stat, I just use it to cull the guys who skew the overall stats by e.g. coming in at the end of blow-outs and hitting threes. Even so, it can be used to get a general idea of how much a player plays. The green/white/red (good/average/bad) shading indicates the "ranking" of a stat among all players in the Big Ten whose %APP is 20% or above.

Conclusions: Black, Thorne, Finke (in that order) need more minutes, to Mav's detriment. Tate detracts significantly from the offense.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Conclusions: Black, Thorne, Finke (in that order) need more minutes, to Mav's detriment. Tate detracts significantly from the offense.

That can happen when you play 4 on 5.

 

[TriCityBurbs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aNZ86aDwPw

 

[Old Number 51]

Our most talented five is with Thorne not DJW

This is simply not true

The Thorne of last year maybe

This year DJW could/would shine if given the chance

JG......... "Free DJW!!"

 

[Captain Bubbles]

I wish all players have the same junkyard dog mentality that Leron Black has. He just brings it every day.

 

[blmillini]

Conclusions: Black, Thorne, Finke (in that order) need more minutes, to Mav's detriment. Tate detracts significantly from the offense.

Did Tate's assist numbers help lead you to that conclusion?

 

[ILLHangOut]

Brandon Miller

What role did Brandon Miller have during his one season here? Does anyone know what roles the individual assistants are assigned in-season?

 

[Tevo]

Awesome. Was wondering when you might whip out these great stat tables again! This confirms a lot about what I (and many other Illini fans) already suspected. Malcolm and Leron are easily our two best players. Abrams is easily our top PG even if doesn't get as many assists. JCL attempts a LOT of 3 pointers. Tate is bad in every facet aside from assists (and TJL isn't far behind on that one while giving you at least reasonable offense). DJW needs to work on his handles (see TO stat) and defense (though blocks & steals certainly don't tell the whole story) if he wants to play more minutes. Thorne and even Finke are a step above Mav at this juncture (not sure what's with the Mav regression?).

Can't wait to see updates on this as the season goes along.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but having a red box for a certain stat doesn't necessarily mean "bad". For example, if a guy like Mike Thorne is bright red in 3PA. That's not a bad thing -- we don't want him attempting 3 pointers. Tate being red in 2PA isn't necessarily bad either, if he is not a great shooter we don't want him taking a lot of shots. Of course, you have to also know that in fact he ISN'T a good shooter and we'd like him to be a lot better, but the simple stat of how many shots has he attempted when compared to the "average" player in the Big Ten isn't bad just because it's below average.

At the same time, I see Leron is bright red with a 0.0 for blocks. You'd like a starting forward to at least occasionally get a blocked shot. That's part of being in good position and being able to help. Then again, if the coaches tell him to stay down, stay mobile, don't go for the blocks, then that bright red isn't as bad as it might normally seem.

 

[TriCityBurbs]

Kind of outta left-field but just read McColley's articles from the IUPUI and NC St. game. I have no idea why this guy even covers Illinois basketball, his lack of basketball knowledge is embarrassing and he seems to change his opinion and view on our team after every game. Playing down to competition is not something only that Illinois does (albeit often), but something that is common around the entire country. OSU/Florida Atlantic, Indiana IPFW, Butler Indiana St...c'mon man. We just beat 2 decent teams and closed out our first close win of the season, calm down bud.

 

[illiniguy24]

How many games in a row do you think we would have to win in order to break the top 25? My guess would be our next 6 games.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Did Tate's assist numbers help lead you to that conclusion?

Eye test just makes me believe Tate has been more fortunate with the passes he does make - ie. players are sinking more shots percentage-wise (OR - maybe it is because he holds the ball so long that by the time he does pass there is no other choice than to shoot). I just do not get a 'wow' feeling with Tate handing the ball and making passes. Plus, since he is not a scoring threat, he must pass if we plan on scoring.

TJL is making better, setup type passes. Tate has been given much more court time to get comfortable. I think TJL has played better in several games already - to me that indicates he should be getting much more time. I fear we've wasted alot of non-con play time that could have been used to get him the experience he will need for conference play.

 

[IllinistuckinGopherland]

Eye test just makes me believe Tate has been more fortunate with the passes he does make - ie. players are sinking more shots percentage-wise (OR - maybe it is because he holds the ball so long that by the time he does pass there is no other choice than to shoot). I just do not get a 'wow' feeling with Tate handing the ball and making passes. Plus, since he is not a scoring threat, he must pass if we plan on scoring.

TJL is making better, setup type passes. Tate has been given much more court time to get comfortable. I think TJL has played better in several games already - to me that indicates he should be getting much more time. I fear we've wasted alot of non-con play time that could have been used to get him the experience he will need for conference play.

TJL looks overmatched at times (expected for a 100+ ranked true freshman), while Tate looks underskilled all the time. TJL needs tic to get better, but game situation will often call for Tate - especially on a team that can't afford to give away any wins for the sake of development.

Why Tate ever sees the floor when TA is also in the game is beyond me.

 

[kuhl84]

TJL looks overmatched at times (expected for a 100+ ranked true freshman), while Tate looks underskilled all the time. TJL needs tic to get better, but game situation will often call for Tate - especially on a team that can't afford to give away any wins for the sake of development.

Why Tate ever sees the floor when TA is also in the game is beyond me.

This is my confusion as well. Playing them both at the same time is basically saying Tate brings more value to the team than DJW or AJ. Prior to the beginning of the season, I assumed a 3 player rotation at the 2/3 positions (Hill, JCL, and 1 of AJ/DJW) and one of Tate or TJL would back up TA at PG.

I rationalized the play of TA and Tate together at the beginning of the season as a response to Black being suspended and Kipper ineligible, therefore, a need for Hill or DJW minutes at the 4. I think that JG's reliance on statistics against the cupcakes (Tate had highest +/- through first 3 or 4 games, TA's shooting, relatively poor performance for AJ and DJW) gave him a false narrative going into the Thanksgiving week games.

I don't want to make this a really long post, but playing Tate more than 6 -10 minutes per game, as a backup PG significantly lowers the ceiling of the team. I can think of 3 scenarios:

1. Groce played the line up early out of necessity and early success fooled him.
2. Groce believes AJ and DJW can't be significant contributors this year, or ever.
3. Groce knows that when Kipper is eligible, he is going to get all of those minutes so it was better to play with the higher floor/lower ceiling that Tate brings in the short term.

I really hope the winner is number 3, both for the potential success of the Team and John Groce.

 

[Joel Goodson]

TJL looks overmatched at times (expected for a 100+ ranked true freshman), while Tate looks underskilled all the time. TJL needs tic to get better, but game situation will often call for Tate - especially on a team that can't afford to give away any wins for the sake of development.

Why Tate ever sees the floor when TA is also in the game is beyond me.

Largely unfathomable. At crunch time, yes, 'cause our best ball handlers and free throw shooters need to be on the floor. But otherwise? Bad idea. We're much better off with JCL, AJ or DJW in instead of Tate. Groce, like a lot of coaches, is risk adverse and feels that Tate is less risky (which most fans disagree with).

Agree with your take on TJL v Tate. There are going to be mistakes either way, but Tate is a sunk cost. At least w/TJL, he's getting the seasoning he needs.

 

[illinitrav]

VCU with a bad loss to Georgia Tech at home yesterday. Pretty much kills their shot at an at-large bid. Let's hope they tear through the A10 so they remain a quality win for us come March.

 

[Newman]

Largely unfathomable. At crunch time, yes, 'cause our best ball handlers and free throw shooters need to be on the floor. But otherwise? Bad idea. We're much better off with JCL, AJ or DJW in instead of Tate. Groce, like a lot of coaches, is risk adverse and feels that Tate is less risky (which most fans disagree with).

Agree with your take on TJL v Tate. There are going to be mistakes either way, but Tate is a sunk cost. At least w/TJL, he's getting the seasoning he needs.

I understand the frustrations when we have to play Tate, but I feel like a lot of is also about people being concerned about Abrams playing the 2. Abrams is a better 2 than Jordan, DJW, and at times even JCL(I don't expect that to last long though but still, he can't play 40 minutes). Would people really feel better if we had Tate in there, and Jordan at the 2? That's not better than Tate and Abrams in the backcourt but I feel like most people would prefer that for some reason.

 

[Joel Goodson]

I understand the frustrations when we have to play Tate, but I feel like a lot of is also about people being concerned about Abrams playing the 2. Abrams is a better 2 than Jordan, DJW, and at times even JCL(I don't expect that to last long though but still, he can't play 40 minutes). Would people really feel better if we had Tate in there, and Jordan at the 2? That's not better than Tate and Abrams in the backcourt but I feel like most people would prefer that for some reason.

Hell, no. My assumption was TA would move back to PG. Tate should get spot minutes: at the end of games and/or if TJL is failing. TJL should be first choice to spell Abrams every time.

 

[Whitman2020]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aNZ86aDwPw

Thanks

 

[ChiefIllini]

How many games in a row do you think we would have to win in order to break the top 25? My guess would be our next 6 games.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Uh... Can my answer be: more than we will win? 6 wins should get us votes, probably 8 to get into the top 25, barring meltdowns by some of the 20-25 teams.

 

[ChiefIllini]

This is my confusion as well. Playing them both at the same time is basically saying Tate brings more value to the team than DJW or AJ. Prior to the beginning of the season, I assumed a 3 player rotation at the 2/3 positions (Hill, JCL, and 1 of AJ/DJW) and one of Tate or TJL would back up TA at PG.

I rationalized the play of TA and Tate together at the beginning of the season as a response to Black being suspended and Kipper ineligible, therefore, a need for Hill or DJW minutes at the 4. I think that JG's reliance on statistics against the cupcakes (Tate had highest +/- through first 3 or 4 games, TA's shooting, relatively poor performance for AJ and DJW) gave him a false narrative going into the Thanksgiving week games.

I don't want to make this a really long post, but playing Tate more than 6 -10 minutes per game, as a backup PG significantly lowers the ceiling of the team. I can think of 3 scenarios:

1. Groce played the line up early out of necessity and early success fooled him.
2. Groce believes AJ and DJW can't be significant contributors this year, or ever.
3. Groce knows that when Kipper is eligible, he is going to get all of those minutes so it was better to play with the higher floor/lower ceiling that Tate brings in the short term.

I really hope the winner is number 3, both for the potential success of the Team and John Groce.

The issue arises from TA not being a pure PG. He is, however, a true combo guard. His increased scoring ability makes his shift to the two more reasonable and therefore causing JG to play him with JT. Groce does rely on stats way to much, and Tate has had good facilitator numbers over last year and this year. I'd rather TA not play the 2 at all, but he slides in will as a starting PG backup SG. Sadly, that forces us to play Tate to some extent. I agree, 10 minutes should be his cap. That would mean TJL probably has to play closer to 15 minutes. As long as Tate and TJL play almost equal minutes, I'm happy. Once Tate plays more, I think its Groce's insecurities about handing the reigns over to TJL. The reason I think this is a fallacy is becuase we don't play the style of game where the PG runs our offense. Sure maybe ever 3 or 4 possessions we try and run a play. But our moves are just skipping it around the perimeter and maybe an occasional pick and roll. I'd rather have some of TA's 2 minutes go to AJ or even DJW (maybe move Malcolm to the 2 for a bit?). Have TA play 5 minutes at the 2, just to throw another look at the D, 25 at the 1, and have TJL play 10 and Tate 5.

 

[Joel Goodson]

The issue arises from TA not being a pure PG. He is, however, a true combo guard. His increased scoring ability makes his shift to the two more reasonable and therefore causing JG to play him with JT. Groce does rely on stats way to much, and Tate has had good facilitator numbers over last year and this year. I'd rather TA not play the 2 at all, but he slides in will as a starting PG backup SG. Sadly, that forces us to play Tate to some extent. I agree, 10 minutes should be his cap. That would mean TJL probably has to play closer to 15 minutes. As long as Tate and TJL play almost equal minutes, I'm happy. Once Tate plays more, I think its Groce's insecurities about handing the reigns over to TJL. The reason I think this is a fallacy is becuase we don't play the style of game where the PG runs our offense. Sure maybe ever 3 or 4 possessions we try and run a play. But our moves are just skipping it around the perimeter and maybe an occasional pick and roll. I'd rather have some of TA's 2 minutes go to AJ or even DJW (maybe move Malcolm to the 2 for a bit?). Have TA play 5 minutes at the 2, just to throw another look at the D, 25 at the 1, and have TJL play 10 and Tate 5.

+1

Spot on, AFAIC.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Hell, no. My assumption was TA would move back to PG. Tate should get spot minutes: at the end of games and/or if TJL is failing. TJL should be first choice to spell Abrams every time.

+1 - the frustration is Tate in there too much over TJL regardless who is at the 2.