I think as the season goes on you will see more TJL. That has really been the MO of Groce during his tenure. Remember Malcolm and Nunn didn't really start to play much until about January of their Freshman year. Also TJL got a late start with the injury he came in with. As long as that trend holds an TJL gets more tick as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable it is all good. The good thing is it doesn't really seem like TJL has the typical freshman attitude towards playing defense. Even better is that from the clips it looks like TF and his team get after it on D.
Illini Basketball 2016-2017
I think as the season goes on you will see more TJL. That has really been the MO of Groce during his tenure. Remember Malcolm and Nunn didn't really start to play much until about January of their Freshman year. Also TJL got a late start with the injury he came in with. As long as that trend holds an TJL gets more tick as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable it is all good. The good thing is it doesn't really seem like TJL has the typical freshman attitude towards playing defense. Even better is that from the clips it looks like TF and his team get after it on D.
I know I posted part of this in one of the other threads but our schedule is becoming even more favorable.
Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin: In and pretty good seeds.
Michigan, Michigan State: 6th-8th seed but still comfortably in. I'm trusting that Izzo will recover.
Illinois, tOSU, Maryland, Northwestern: Bubble but 2 teams in.
Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, Rutgers: Ehh
Our schedule:
@Maryland
tOSU
@Indiana
Michigan
@Purdue
@Michigan
Iowa
@PennState
Wisconsin
Minnesota
@Northwestern
Penn State
@Iowa
Northwestern
@Nebraska
MSU
@Rutgers
If we beat any of the teams in the top tier, that would be tremendous but it's not going to be expected. If we lose to them all we go 0-3, including two on the road so that won't hurt us much at all.
The next tier is Michigan twice and MSU at home. It's hard to predict those teams but maybe we can upset them in or two games. I'll go ahead and say we go 1-2 in this tier. Total record so far would be 1-5.
Next tier is Maryland, Northwestern, and tOSU. These are the games that we need to win more often than not. We play @Maryland during break so that would be a great opportunity to steal a road win. tOSU is at home but I'll go ahead and predict that we lose to them but beat NU on the road and at home. That would be 3-1.
The next tier is trash but Minnesota is likely the most dangerous of the group and we only play them once at home. If we lose a game to this group I wouldn't surprised if it were to them. To have the best chances at dancing, we need to beat everyone in this group. Safest bet is that we lose one of these games that we're favored to win. That would give us 6-1.
That would put us at 10-8. Not the best wins but I think enough to make it in if we win out in non-conference. I wouldn't be surprised if we an steal 1 from an upper tier team and lose another one that we were favored to win. Still would be 10-8 but good wins are more valuable than bad losses.
Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin: In and pretty good seeds.
Michigan, Michigan State: 6th-8th seed but still comfortably in. I'm trusting that Izzo will recover.
Illinois, tOSU, Maryland, Northwestern: Bubble but 2 teams in.
Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, Rutgers: Ehh
Our schedule:
@Maryland
tOSU
@Indiana
Michigan
@Purdue
@Michigan
Iowa
@PennState
Wisconsin
Minnesota
@Northwestern
Penn State
@Iowa
Northwestern
@Nebraska
MSU
@Rutgers
If we beat any of the teams in the top tier, that would be tremendous but it's not going to be expected. If we lose to them all we go 0-3, including two on the road so that won't hurt us much at all.
The next tier is Michigan twice and MSU at home. It's hard to predict those teams but maybe we can upset them in or two games. I'll go ahead and say we go 1-2 in this tier. Total record so far would be 1-5.
Next tier is Maryland, Northwestern, and tOSU. These are the games that we need to win more often than not. We play @Maryland during break so that would be a great opportunity to steal a road win. tOSU is at home but I'll go ahead and predict that we lose to them but beat NU on the road and at home. That would be 3-1.
The next tier is trash but Minnesota is likely the most dangerous of the group and we only play them once at home. If we lose a game to this group I wouldn't surprised if it were to them. To have the best chances at dancing, we need to beat everyone in this group. Safest bet is that we lose one of these games that we're favored to win. That would give us 6-1.
That would put us at 10-8. Not the best wins but I think enough to make it in if we win out in non-conference. I wouldn't be surprised if we an steal 1 from an upper tier team and lose another one that we were favored to win. Still would be 10-8 but good wins are more valuable than bad losses.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Good breakdown. I am a little more pessimistic about Michigan State, if they turn it around i'll be fairly surprised.
I think the hardest wins for this team that you've predicted will be beating NW twice. I think they are for real this year and it might come down to us or them when determining who makes the tourney. I agree we probably get two wins out of Mich H/A, MSU, Indiana, Wisc, and Purdue. We seem to play Purdue well somehow and Michigan is weaker than I think is expected. MSU will be interesting given how late in the schedule they are. We then drop two against the lower tier. One win against Maryland is possible, could even sweep. I think Minny is overrated, in terms of them being a dark horse to steal wins, they are probably bottom 3. What is best about this schedule is that we play almost all our challenging games in Janurary, a notoriously bad month for Groce. That means we hopefully wont drop games we are supposed to win then.
beyond IU, Wisc, and Purdue, I really can't predict whos gonna come in 4-8. The bottom tier of Rutgers, PSU, Nebraska, and, in my opinion, Minny are pretty set. 4,5,6 is probably going to be Mich, MSU, and OSU in some capacity, but I can see NW or Iowa sneaky in there (though I'm very low on Iowa). The battle for 4-8 is gonna be where we need to win the majority of games, which includes: MD x2, Mich x2, NW x2, MSU, and OSU. If we win 5, we make it.
I'm sure they will turn it around but somehow we've done pretty well against MSU the past few years. A win at home against Michigan is more likely IMO.
Uh, what? No, 1 bad loss doesn't kill their ALB chances. And if they "tear through the A10" and are still a quality win for us, then by definition they still would have ALB hopes.
Good news, bad news. Yes the schedule looks easier but that also means the quality shifts to fewer chances for good wins and more chances to stumble and pick up another bad loss.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
I have to disagree on the "decent" teams. NC State and VCU both looked disorganized and sloppy. VCU's subsequent loss to Georgia Tech kind of confirms that. Seems like some fans want to say that West Virginia and FSU losses are offset by wins over NC State and VCU. I say "Hogwash!" to that.
I think people might argue the Winthrop loss is offset by those 2 wins. WV and FSU are good teams so there's not really any damage done with those losses from an NCAA resume standpoint. Lost opportunities and certainly we looked bad in losing to WV, but no real harm done. I do think we need a couple more good wins to really make up for that bad loss at home, though.
There are less chances of picking up great wins, sure, but those teams are just stumbling enough for them to still count as pretty good wins, but not bad enough to count as bad losses if we lose to them. Ohio State for example might ending up stumbling enough to be outside of the bubble but a win would still be pretty good for our resume. Even with it being a down year in the conference, there are still 12 top 100 teams (10 in the top 75, 7 in top 50) so there will still be plenty of opportunities to improve our resume.
Today's Bracketology has 8 Big Ten teams in, with Minnesota as the last and an 11 seed. This surprised me but I think it's a good sign.
No, the issue is if TA is playing the 2 and Tate is playing, Tate is playing over DJW and AJ. Tates Floor may be higher, but that floor does not win games over decent B1G opponents. If Groce thinks Tate should be playing over AJ and DJW when TA is in the game, they should both leave the program immediately or hope Groce is not around.
I'm not at practice, so I can't say he is wrong, but it means he thinks very little of the two or grossly over estimates Tates value.
I just think it's very tough for a P5 conference team to get a bid without at least a couple of top 50 wins. Right now we may have one, but that's very shaky with VCU's recent lost. In conference, the 3 teams that are very likely to be top 50 are the ones you identified, IU, PU and UW. We only play those teams once, 2 of them are on the road and the 3rd is a team we haven't beaten since 2011. Hopefully Michigan, Ohio St, Northwestern or someone else also manages to make top 50 status, though our recent records against that group is also not great. And again, we only play Ohio St once, at least it's at home.
The teams that make the tourney from the b1g, sans IU, PU, and UW will be determined soley on who can get there act together the most. None of the teams 4-12 have good/"great" wins other than MSU (Shockers) and maybe NW. I'd almost say our VCU and NCST wins could be the best pair any team 4-12 has. A lot of these teams also have bad losses, which would be considered just as bad as Winthrop IMO. Some teams may be more talented or better coach than us, but if theres been a year to be a middle of the road B1G school looking to make the tourney that doesn't have elite talent or good coaching its this year. We have enough talent. If we get enough leadership and heart is yet to be determined. Weather January without any bad losses and I think we are set up to have a yuge February. Predicted teams in the tourney: IU, PU, UW, MSU, Mich. Bubble teams: UI, OSU, NW, and Maryland. I think two bubble teams make it. Right now I'd say order is NW, OSU, MD, and then us. We have a lot to prove.
So you don't think NCST has a chance to be a top 50 come the end of the season? Seems to me the only way to go from here is up for them. They play in an uber talented conference, which means if they knock off a big dog or two and dont have silly losses, they probably sneak into the top 50.
They have a chance, sure. Get Rowan back and the 5 star Turk center is eligible in a few games. So they have the talent, but will it mesh? And can Gottfried get it done? He's not a great coach, more of a recruiter.
WiscIllini
- Madison, WI
I think he was just responding to someone asking what people thought it would take to get ranked. That isn't what he actually thought would happen.
Just out curiousty, I looked at a couple ranking sites to check our resume. I averaged Kenpom and Sagarin's golden mean. Early in the season they can vary a lot, but they're starting to converge, so I think it's a reasonable estimate, at least thus far into the year.
The losses to WVA and FSU won't hurt us. WVA ranks about 7th in the nation using these two, and FSU about 27th.
Winthrop unfortunately is 126th, and at home, so somewhat of a stinker there.
NC State and VCU are outside the top 50, but not by much. If we're a bubble team, it's also possible the VCU win is downgraded as I believe they were missing at least one key player.
All our other games, frankly, are irrelevant to tourney discussion.
At this point, that's not much of a resume, but it's not terrible either. For perspective, using those same ratings, we're in the low 70s.
IF we get our !@#$ together, and put it in a backpack, so it's all together, I don't see why we couldn't pass 15-20 teams and get solidly on the bubble. We probably need to see rankings at worst in the 50s to have a decent chance at an invite.
The losses to WVA and FSU won't hurt us. WVA ranks about 7th in the nation using these two, and FSU about 27th.
Winthrop unfortunately is 126th, and at home, so somewhat of a stinker there.
NC State and VCU are outside the top 50, but not by much. If we're a bubble team, it's also possible the VCU win is downgraded as I believe they were missing at least one key player.
All our other games, frankly, are irrelevant to tourney discussion.
At this point, that's not much of a resume, but it's not terrible either. For perspective, using those same ratings, we're in the low 70s.
IF we get our !@#$ together, and put it in a backpack, so it's all together, I don't see why we couldn't pass 15-20 teams and get solidly on the bubble. We probably need to see rankings at worst in the 50s to have a decent chance at an invite.
NC St was missing players, not VCU. Agree with the post.
No one will look at who missed a game come March. The only time that is used is if a team was missing someone for an extended amount of time (ie Duke's situation to start the season). Simply too hard to keep up with all man games missed for every game.
Additionally if you want to see UI in the tourney they need to get between 40-50 on Kenpom based on historical data. Once the conference season starts there will be ample opportunity for that to happen as all but 1 B1G team is in the Top 100.
The next six would get us wins vs C. Mich, BYU, Mizzou, at Maryland, OSU, and at IU. That would probably get us into the bottom of the rankings the next week. Winning five straight to get to the IU game would maybe get us some votes.
Looking at KenPom, the biggest upside is getting to the line. We are the highest we have been in this category since 2002! Currently #63, Recently we have been ranked 322,315,295, 309,336,341,344. In 2002 we were 29, the first year for kenpom. Currently 41.6 FTA/FGA.
The most distressing thing I found is bench minutes. We are ranked 310th. So much for being deep. There are 351 teams. 26.5%, top team is Witchita St at 48.4%.
We are 9pt favorites with CMU, 79% to win. BYU we are 1 pt favorite with 51% chance to win.
GO ILLINI!
The most distressing thing I found is bench minutes. We are ranked 310th. So much for being deep. There are 351 teams. 26.5%, top team is Witchita St at 48.4%.
We are 9pt favorites with CMU, 79% to win. BYU we are 1 pt favorite with 51% chance to win.
GO ILLINI!
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Another interesting KenPom stat is "Continuity".
He defines it as basically a comparison between the minutes played this year and last year by the same guys. The Illini are actually pretty high nationally, at #35, in continuity. I find that interesting because it has been bandied about on here that this roster does not have much together time, with TA and LB and MT, Jr. all having missed big parts of last year. And Kendrick Nunn is gone. And of course Alex Austin is gone and Te'jon is new. I'm not sure how we can be measured at 66.6% when so many of our current players were not big contributors last year.
So, I did the math. Its his formula, but the result is that we show up with 66.6% continuity and the national average is 49.5%. Sort of shocking, I think.
He defines it as basically a comparison between the minutes played this year and last year by the same guys. The Illini are actually pretty high nationally, at #35, in continuity. I find that interesting because it has been bandied about on here that this roster does not have much together time, with TA and LB and MT, Jr. all having missed big parts of last year. And Kendrick Nunn is gone. And of course Alex Austin is gone and Te'jon is new. I'm not sure how we can be measured at 66.6% when so many of our current players were not big contributors last year.
So, I did the math. Its his formula, but the result is that we show up with 66.6% continuity and the national average is 49.5%. Sort of shocking, I think.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
He is? Still on the roster at fightingillini.com.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Sorry, I guess it is just that he isn't playing, so he doesn't factor into the math. My bad.
If Kipper can become a great punch off the bench for us, I really like our chances of a top 7 finish in the B1G. A second lineup rotation of TJL/JT, KN, DJ, Finke and Morgan could do some damage as long as they don't have a dominate big man we can't handle. I believe our starting five can compete with (almost) anyone in the country when playing to their potential.
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