Illini Basketball 2019-2020

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#626      

FiveStar

F
FiveStar
dbeaverfg said:
Will that still be the worst shot with the three point line being moved back?
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Let’s say your an INSANELY good midrange shooter. You shoot like 45%. On 100 shots you get 90 points.

Let’s say you’re a below average 3 point shooter. You shoot 30%. On 100 shots that is also 90.

That’s your equilibrium. Most guys who shoot midrange aren’t hitting at 45%. Most guys you have shooting 3s shoot over 30%. So even at above average midrange efficiency and below average 3p efficiency, 3p is still the better shot, even if just for spacing.
 
#628      

Deleted member 643761

D
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Deleted member 643761
FiveStar said:
Let’s say your an INSANELY good midrange shooter. You shoot like 45%. On 100 shots you get 90 points.

Let’s say you’re a below average 3 point shooter. You shoot 30%. On 100 shots that is also 90.

That’s your equilibrium. Most guys who shoot midrange aren’t hitting at 45%. Most guys you have shooting 3s shoot over 30%. So even at above average midrange efficiency and below average 3p efficiency, 3p is still the better shot, even if just for spacing.
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no, it doesn't require you to be "INSANELY" good.

The analysis has value, but it's hardly the end all. It doesn't take into account whether a shot is contested and it doesn't take into account who is taking it and at what point in the shot clock.

First, you have to define "mid-range". If it goes to 17 feet, then sure, you're probably better off stepping back. But when we're talking about 10 foot shots then it is a very valuable tool to have.

The point about contesting a shot is that guys who can't shoot at any particular range will then cause defenses to sag off them. So GB's ability to shoot well from 10-15 is going to positively impact the number of touches he gets at 5 feet. A three point shooter that can put the ball on the floor and get to 15 feet and hit accurately will get more open looks from 3.

At the end of the day, I doubt there's a coach in America that wants players on the court that are passing up open 10 foot shots because it's not efficient. I just don't buy it.
 
#630      

FiveStar

F
FiveStar
NewFan2011 said:
no, it doesn't require you to be "INSANELY" good.

The analysis has value, but it's hardly the end all. It doesn't take into account whether a shot is contested and it doesn't take into account who is taking it and at what point in the shot clock.

First, you have to define "mid-range". If it goes to 17 feet, then sure, you're probably better off stepping back. But when we're talking about 10 foot shots then it is a very valuable tool to have.

The point about contesting a shot is that guys who can't shoot at any particular range will then cause defenses to sag off them. So GB's ability to shoot well from 10-15 is going to positively impact the number of touches he gets at 5 feet. A three point shooter that can put the ball on the floor and get to 15 feet and hit accurately will get more open looks from 3.

At the end of the day, I doubt there's a coach in America that wants players on the court that are passing up open 10 foot shots because it's not efficient. I just don't buy it.
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You’re correct that it doesn’t require you to be insanely good. I put that there as a “best case scenario” type thing. Last season the best players in the world (nba) averaged 44% from midrange for some perspective.

There is actually data to backup shooting 10 foot shots, but from the paint. That same distance on the sides and angles show significantly lower percentages.

For the no coach in America point, it has been reported that Steve Kerr didn’t want Steph curry, klay, and KD to take midrange jumpers. So when you have 3 of the best shooters in the history of basketball being told by their already all time great coach that he doesn’t want them taking those shots, it carries some weight.
 
#631      

Deleted member 643761

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Deleted member 643761
Y
FiveStar said:
You’re correct that it doesn’t require you to be insanely good. I put that there as a “best case scenario” type thing. Last season the best players in the world (nba) averaged 44% from midrange for some perspective.

There is actually data to backup shooting 10 foot shots, but from the paint. That same distance on the sides and angles show significantly lower percentages.

For the no coach in America point, it has been reported that Steve Kerr didn’t want Steph curry, klay, and KD to take midrange jumpers. So when you have 3 of the best shooters in the history of basketball being told by their already all time great coach that he doesn’t want them taking those shots, it carries some weight.
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Yes, it carries weight. For my point.

Those guys are insanely good while guarded.

You didn't address the point about being guarded or not. To make a global statement about efficiency without talking about that is crazy
 
#632      

Calvin

C
Calvin
AttentionDeficit said:
This Ringer article on the continued rise of the three includes a graph titled "3 Point Attempts Per Game by Defensive Proximity," so i thought it might be relevant.
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Going by their graph, you're more likely to make a 23 footer than a 4 footer. That's not adjusting for 3 points vs 2 points, it's actual shooting %.

So obviously, there's more to this than just shooting %. E.g. when you're shooting a 4 footer, it's probably because you have poor post position and are up against excellent defense. 29 and 30+ footers are also grossly distorted. A guy taking a 29 footer is probably taking a shot, whereas all the desparation heaves are in the last category.

Mind you, I'm not disagreeing with the data --it's great info and certainly correct for what it is.

Makes me wonder when some team is going to put a proximity reader on all it's players so they accurately record where shots are taken, as well as the circumstances (open/contested or off balance). Seems like that data would tell you exactly what the smartest shots are. I know they try and record that manually, but it seems like recording it would take it to another level. I know the pros look at % by distance and angle to try and make sure players get to their sweet spot.
 
#634      

Deleted member 643761

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Deleted member 643761
Calvin said:
Going by their graph, you're more likely to make a 23 footer than a 4 footer. That's not adjusting for 3 points vs 2 points, it's actual shooting %.

So obviously, there's more to this than just shooting %. E.g. when you're shooting a 4 footer, it's probably because you have poor post position and are up against excellent defense. 29 and 30+ footers are also grossly distorted. A guy taking a 29 footer is probably taking a shot, whereas all the desparation heaves are in the last category.

Mind you, I'm not disagreeing with the data --it's great info and certainly correct for what it is.

Makes me wonder when some team is going to put a proximity reader on all it's players so they accurately record where shots are taken, as well as the circumstances (open/contested or off balance). Seems like that data would tell you exactly what the smartest shots are. I know they try and record that manually, but it seems like recording it would take it to another level. I know the pros look at % by distance and angle to try and make sure players get to their sweet spot.
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Lots of factors, and intuitively, coaches are aware of many of them. Off the dribble vs. off the pass is a great example. Many of the great power forwards also have a knack for knowing the shot is going to miss and being able to get the rebound.

Anyway, it's going to be great to see just where GB gets his shots from and what he can do in the 10-15 ft range from a scoring and passing aspect.
 
#638      

RIVERCITYCHIEF

R
RIVERCITYCHIEF
FiveStar said:
Let’s say your an INSANELY good midrange shooter. You shoot like 45%. On 100 shots you get 90 points.

Let’s say you’re a below average 3 point shooter. You shoot 30%. On 100 shots that is also 90.

That’s your equilibrium. Most guys who shoot midrange aren’t hitting at 45%. Most guys you have shooting 3s shoot over 30%. So even at above average midrange efficiency and below average 3p efficiency, 3p is still the better shot, even if just for spacing.
Click to expand...
With the line being moved back i think if more than a few are taking a lot of shots from that distance they will not shoot 30% unless they are wide open. I would still have my doubts. I also think a strong mid range open shot like Malcolm hill or Maverick Morgan had later in his career is a better than 45\% shot. contested maybe i agree but a good look these guys will shoot better than that if they are a focal point in our offense. Even more so if they are open. I hope to see a lot of GB from, 8 to 10 feet on a smaller player this season. I cant see Kofi not drawing the our oppositions big man. I expect a lot of offensive boards and dunks if that is the case.
I expect us to shoot 15 threes or so a game. and a bunch at the basket and inside of 12 feet. The shots that i would call MID RANGE that we take i expect to be great looks by good shooters and will be better than a 3 by the wrong player.
 
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#639      

RIVERCITYCHIEF

R
RIVERCITYCHIEF
What players do you expect to shoot over 35 or even 30% for the season from further back this year? I have not looked at least season but the new distance could hinder a players improvement,, So who do you expect to take 100 threes this year with the new added distance? I think Trent is our best bet for both. I hope AG, Tev, and Ayo improve. I do like the corner threes though.
 
#641      

Deleted member 643761

D
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Deleted member 643761
RIVERCITYCHIEF said:
What players do you expect to shoot over 35 or even 30% for the season from further back this year? I have not looked at least season but the new distance could hinder a players improvement,, So who do you expect to take 100 threes this year with the new added distance? I think Trent is our best bet for both. I hope AG, Tev, and Ayo improve. I do like the corner threes though.
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Distance of course matters. But getting guys open is more important.
 
#644      

stoney

S
stoney
Thought I'd give my 2 cents about this team. A while back I shared that I thought this team was the best collection of talent I have seen in C U for many years.

- Gorgi is a consistent jump shot away from being a pro.
- Kofi is a freshman and will need time and Antigua coaching to be all he can be (so be patient)
- Ayo is the best guard to grace C U since Deron and expect a big year.
- Frazier will be the quiet assassin and will start to get national attention with his play making.
- Andre is far better than we give him credit for and will be responsible for the Illini winning a ton of games.
- Tevian is a rhythm shooter and if defense steps up he will have a monster year.
- AG will establish a defensive presence and will be a knock down shooter.
- Kipper will find consistency and his contribution will move this team to vie for the top spot in the B1G.
- Samba (if he stays) will surprise with his defense and shot making ability (his hands during freshman year remind me of Egwu his freshman year)
- Other freshmen will be...well freshmen..with the kid from Norway or Belgium being more ready to contribute.

I like this team y'all.
 
#645      

CogDog

CogDog
CogDog
stoney said:
Thought I'd give my 2 cents about this team. A while back I shared that I thought this team was the best collection of talent I have seen in C U for many years.

- Gorgi is a consistent jump shot away from being a pro.
- Kofi is a freshman and will need time and Antigua coaching to be all he can be (so be patient)
- Ayo is the best guard to grace C U since Deron and expect a big year.
- Frazier will be the quiet assassin and will start to get national attention with his play making.
- Andre is far better than we give him credit for and will be responsible for the Illini winning a ton of games.
- Tevian is a rhythm shooter and if defense steps up he will have a monster year.
- AG will establish a defensive presence and will be a knock down shooter.
- Kipper will find consistency and his contribution will move this team to vie for the top spot in the B1G.
- Samba (if he stays) will surprise with his defense and shot making ability (his hands during freshman year remind me of Egwu his freshman year)
- Other freshmen will be...well freshmen..with the kid from Norway or Belgium being more ready to contribute.

I like this team y'all.
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Samba gon’.
 
#646      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
FiveStar said:
Let’s say your an INSANELY good midrange shooter. You shoot like 45%. On 100 shots you get 90 points.

Let’s say you’re a below average 3 point shooter. You shoot 30%. On 100 shots that is also 90.

That’s your equilibrium. Most guys who shoot midrange aren’t hitting at 45%. Most guys you have shooting 3s shoot over 30%. So even at above average midrange efficiency and below average 3p efficiency, 3p is still the better shot, even if just for spacing.
Click to expand...

This assumes that the two shooters are getting an equal number of shots.
 
#648      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
stoney said:
- Samba (if he stays) will surprise with his defense and shot making ability (his hands during freshman year remind me of Egwu his freshman year)
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Do you, by any chance, live in a cave?

Samba is already gone.

Egwu was a great player, but he... err... struggled with his hands at times.
 
#650      

the national

the national
the Front Range
the national
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1154105798852825088
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Very Shawn Kemp

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