Pregame: Illinois at Michigan, Saturday, January 25th, 11:00am CT, FS1

Status
Not open for further replies.
#26
I'll make my prediction after their game against Penn St tomorrow. I think that could make a big difference. I DO NOT want to see us play a desperate Michigan team on a 3 game losing skid. They've lost 3 out of the last 4 and I hope they take out all that frustration by blowing the doors off Penn St instead of us.
 
#32
South Carolina
We're up to #22 on KenPom. Road victories provide a nice bump! I, too, am watching the MICH/PSU outcome before I make my prediction. Leaning toward a WIN right now.
 
Likes: mikraso
#33
I would imagine we will throw out a very similar game plan to what we did our first game. We’ll run Michigan off the 3 and have them “beat us” inside.
To counter, don’t be surprised if we see a lot of off ball screens, but what do I know? Nonetheless, I’m excited to find out on Saturday.
 
#35
The way we are playing currently, I would be okay either way. Iowa is the team to worry about as well as MSU the 2nd time around. That said anyone can win at any given time.
I agree. Iowa is the team that presents the most challenges to our current roster makeup. They have a laundry list of guys that can really shoot it and Garza is an absolute matchup nightmare for either of our bigs.

That said....we still need some realistic expectations here. Two huge Big Ten road wins so far this year. I too felt like the game at Michigan was the more winnable of the two. I still feel that way, but it's still a road game vs a very good team.

So, while hopeful and very excited, I'm trying not to go too overboard.
 
#36
We match up well with Michigan. They play some poor interior defense, Kofi scored 19 on Teske in the first matchup. Garza has scored 44 and 33 this year against UM. Pound the ball inside, stay out of foul trouble, make a couple of threes, Ayo closes, and continue the A+ defense.

ILL 68
MU 64
 
#37
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Not sure where else to post this — results of last night's run on my B1G season prognosticator using KenPom ratings:

Illinois' BTT Seed (pct. chance)
1. - 10.93
2. - 17.6670
3. - 15.6430
4. - 13.6770
5. - 11.5120
6. - 9.1480
7. - 7.2480
8. - 5.5380
9. - 3.9190
10. - 2.6360
11. - 1.5050
12. - 0.5620
13. - 0.0120
14. - 0.0010

Illinois' first round opponent
Indiana - 0.0040
Michigan - 0.0020
Minnesota - 0.0020
Nebraska - 1.0520
Northwestern - 1.0060
Purdue - 0.0140
Bye - 97.9200

Illinois' second round opponent
Indiana - 4.4119
Iowa - 1.5404
Maryland - 0.9970
Michigan - 4.1050
Michigan St. - 0.1915
Minnesota - 4.3279
Nebraska - 5.1401
Northwestern - 5.1702
Ohio St. - 3.7241
Penn St. - 4.0576
Purdue - 4.6765
Rutgers - 1.7770
Wisconsin - 1.9614
Bye - 57.9190

High seed in Illinois' pod
Illinois - 57.9190
Indiana - 1.4500
Iowa - 6.1860
Maryland - 7.4580
Michigan - 1.8490
Michigan St. - 9.0050
Minnesota - 1.5580
Nebraska - 0.0000
Northwestern - 0.0000
Ohio St. - 2.4560
Penn St. - 1.8950
Purdue - 0.5170
Rutgers - 5.2380 (!)
Wisconsin - 4.4690
 
#40
Cincinnati, OH
After the Rutgers game, Illinois was 322nd in 3-point FG% (28.7%). In two games (Northwestern and Purdue), they've gone up to 293rd (30.2%).
 
#41
After the Rutgers game, Illinois was 322nd in 3-point FG% (28.7%). In two games (Northwestern and Purdue), they've gone up to 293rd (30.2%).
Lol, this is amazing ... shows what even a SOMEWHAT adequate three point threat does for this team's ceiling. When opposing defenses need to be swarming Trent to stop him from raining down threes, it frees up Ayo to do his thing. When even Giorgi needs to be watched on the perimeter, it makes his pump-fake-feed-Kofi move, well, believable. :p
 
#42
Baltimore, MD
Michigan is having trouble defending the post recently so Kofi should feast if we can get him the ball in the post. In the last 3 games, Garza put up 33 and 7 in Iowa's win over UM Friday. Oturo from MN put up 30 and 7 in their win over UM on 1/12. Finally, Trevion Williams from Purdue put up 36 and 20 against UM on 1/9 (it was a 2OT loss at UM).

So over the last 3 games, UM is allowing opposing centers to average 33 points and 11.3 rebounds.
 
Last edited:
#43
South Carolina
Not sure where else to post this — results of last night's run on my B1G season prognosticator using KenPom ratings:

Illinois' BTT Seed (pct. chance)
1. - 10.93
2. - 17.6670
3. - 15.6430
4. - 13.6770
5. - 11.5120
6. - 9.1480
7. - 7.2480
8. - 5.5380
9. - 3.9190
10. - 2.6360
11. - 1.5050
12. - 0.5620
13. - 0.0120
14. - 0.0010

Illinois' first round opponent
Indiana - 0.0040
Michigan - 0.0020
Minnesota - 0.0020
Nebraska - 1.0520
Northwestern - 1.0060
Purdue - 0.0140
Bye - 97.9200

Illinois' second round opponent
Indiana - 4.4119
Iowa - 1.5404
Maryland - 0.9970
Michigan - 4.1050
Michigan St. - 0.1915
Minnesota - 4.3279
Nebraska - 5.1401
Northwestern - 5.1702
Ohio St. - 3.7241
Penn St. - 4.0576
Purdue - 4.6765
Rutgers - 1.7770
Wisconsin - 1.9614
Bye - 57.9190

High seed in Illinois' pod
Illinois - 57.9190
Indiana - 1.4500
Iowa - 6.1860
Maryland - 7.4580
Michigan - 1.8490
Michigan St. - 9.0050
Minnesota - 1.5580
Nebraska - 0.0000
Northwestern - 0.0000
Ohio St. - 2.4560
Penn St. - 1.8950
Purdue - 0.5170
Rutgers - 5.2380 (!)
Wisconsin - 4.4690
As always, thanks Daniel! Excellent stuff. Those BYE stats are staggering, given where things stood with this program just three weeks ago. These numbers tell us that we're now more likely to have a double bye, than not.

I'll also add that your typical chart with odds of potential finish in the standings is outstanding --- extremely easy to comprehend. I like that it shows probabilities for all 14 teams.

Keep the updates coming!
 
#44
Captain Trips-ville, Planet Houston
Michigan is having trouble defending the post recently so Kofi should feast if we can get him the ball in the post. In the last 3 games, Garza put up 33 and 7 in Iowa's win over UM Friday. Oturo from MN put up 30 and 7 in their win over UM on 1/12. Finally, Trevion Williams from Purdue put up 36 and 20 against UM on 1/9 (it was a 2OT loss at UM).

So over the last 3 games, UM is allowing opposing centers to average 33 points and 11.3 rebounds.
Kofi, you're platter is served!
 
#45
Beat scUM! Also happy that the game is an early one. Can't wait
 
#46
Not sure where else to post this — results of last night's run on my B1G season prognosticator using KenPom ratings:

Illinois' BTT Seed (pct. chance)
1. - 10.93
2. - 17.6670
3. - 15.6430
4. - 13.6770
5. - 11.5120
6. - 9.1480
7. - 7.2480
8. - 5.5380
9. - 3.9190
10. - 2.6360
11. - 1.5050
12. - 0.5620
13. - 0.0120
14. - 0.0010

Illinois' first round opponent
Indiana - 0.0040
Michigan - 0.0020
Minnesota - 0.0020
Nebraska - 1.0520
Northwestern - 1.0060
Purdue - 0.0140
Bye - 97.9200

Illinois' second round opponent
Indiana - 4.4119
Iowa - 1.5404
Maryland - 0.9970
Michigan - 4.1050
Michigan St. - 0.1915
Minnesota - 4.3279
Nebraska - 5.1401
Northwestern - 5.1702
Ohio St. - 3.7241
Penn St. - 4.0576
Purdue - 4.6765
Rutgers - 1.7770
Wisconsin - 1.9614
Bye - 57.9190

High seed in Illinois' pod
Illinois - 57.9190
Indiana - 1.4500
Iowa - 6.1860
Maryland - 7.4580
Michigan - 1.8490
Michigan St. - 9.0050
Minnesota - 1.5580
Nebraska - 0.0000
Northwestern - 0.0000
Ohio St. - 2.4560
Penn St. - 1.8950
Purdue - 0.5170
Rutgers - 5.2380 (!)
Wisconsin - 4.4690
I don't know what any of this means, but I'm guessing it's very good for us.
 
#49
More afraid of this game now then before the PU game. Afraid of winning the games we shouldn’t and losing games we should win. Still think we beat MSU at home but think it unlikely to repeat PU offensive stats. With Mr. outside (Trent) and Mr inside (Kofi) and Mr distribution (Ayo) we are difficult to defend but was the best game for all three of them.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.