Pregame: Illinois at Michigan, Saturday, January 25th, 11:00am CT, FS1

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#51
More afraid of this game now then before the PU game. Afraid of winning the games we shouldn’t and losing games we should win. Still think we beat MSU at home but think it unlikely to repeat PU offensive stats. With Mr. outside (Trent) and Mr inside (Kofi) and Mr distribution (Ayo) we are difficult to defend but was the best game for all three of them.
We have other pieces and BU seems to have found the key to spread the load around. All three of them go ice in any particular game, unlikely, and performance follows confidence. I believe this crew believes in themselves individually, and perhaps even more in their teammates. They talk that way, they swag that way, and they play that way. They know what they can do, and they know that if they keep at it, they will.

That said, I'm not tempting the Fates. We got hot in the middle of last season and we know how that wound up. I don't think this game plan is as fragile as last years.
 
#52
Forgottonia
Just bring the D every night and I’ll live with whatever the results are. One thing for sure is we can play with anyone when we are hitting our shots. I love how together the team is right now. Guys picking each other up after a tough call. Much more vocal in each others ear compared to a month ago.
 
#53
TRank before PU game:

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TRank after PU game:

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See how ALL the predictive numbers have shifted in fav of IL. And, by significant amounts.
 
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#54
Springfield
All I can say is I like what I have seen in B1G play by this team...becoming what they dream they can be and good for them...they should. Looking forward to the next game in Ann Arbor, my memory is clogged with visions of Cheatigan raining threes as our guys watch. We all (should) know that there is a glass lid that fits over one rim for a half on any night in the B1G. Said lid randomly moves around the league respecting no one and leaving no one exempt from its demise. We might all agree that the Illini have suffered such demise in a couple of the games they ended up winning and were due for what happened in W. L. last night. But you never know. Though I respect the Michigan Athletic Dept. less than any other, their hoops team is a tough out on any night against anyone. Got to play well and hard at both ends of the court...and that is not always a given. But given recent events, these kids just might get out of Ann Arbor with a win. Stay focused, play hard every minute, and play smart.........and hope the glass lid goes somewhere else on Saturday. If not, win anyway. Beating both Purdue and Michigan twice in one B1G season is something few Illini fans witness in a lifetime.
 
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#57
Yeah but see how far off the predictive number was for the Purdue game.
Yup.

I have been complaining about those numbers for some time now. IL is a totally different team in the B10. None of these sites recalibrate, they are not designed to do that.

I will give @Iowa and @Rutgers. Nothing else. More than likely we go 10-2, BTT finals, sweet 16.
 
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#58
I would imagine we will throw out a very similar game plan to what we did our first game. We’ll run Michigan off the 3 and have them “beat us” inside.
To counter, don’t be surprised if we see a lot of off ball screens, but what do I know? Nonetheless, I’m excited to find out on Saturday.
Michigan only shot 17% on threes against us last time. Of course, we only shot 9%!!
 
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#59
Yup.

I have been complaining about those numbers for some time now. IL is a totally different team in the B10. None of these sites recalibrate, they are not designed to do that.

I will give @Iowa and @Rutgers. Nothing else. More than likely we go 10-2, BTT finals, sweet 16.
Jeff Sagarin's site does take recent games into account. His rating that emphasizes recent games with more importance has IL at 9th. His overall rating has IL at 20th.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
 
#60
Jeff Sagarin's site does take recent games into account. His rating that emphasizes recent games with more importance has IL at 9th. His overall rating has IL at 20th.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
Thanks. "More recent games" is also called a sliding/moving scale.

That is not what I have advocated for (and understandably, I do not expect them to tailor a stat just for IL or the B10). But, since they have all the data, it should not be very difficult to tailor their results for a particular conference - a small change to the SQL. I would love to the results - the current set and in addition the same stats for within a conference.

So, I track very, very simple data points. And, I saw a trend there very early on. IIRC, the only one I missed (as far as IL is concerned) was the MD game - I predicted IL would win @MD. And, although I predicted a loss @MSU, never thought/calculated by 20.

So, are we going 10-2? Hope so. Worst case (IMVVVVVHO) 8-4, more likely 9-3 and 10-2 ............ Next game up.

What I am very intrigued about are BTT and the dance. One and done is a very different mindset than the season. Teams better come to play 40 minutes at both ends.
 
#61
South Carolina
Jeff Sagarin's site does take recent games into account. His rating that emphasizes recent games with more importance has IL at 9th. His overall rating has IL at 20th.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
I hadn't visited Sagarin in quite awhile (likely because of our ineptitude over the past several years). It's nice that he now has a "predictor" too, which many rankings ignore. It's much better when these prognosticators look ahead to future opponents and venues rather than relying solely on results to date.

As an example, Sagarin is still a believer in Ohio State. They're presently ranked 38, their recent is 71 and projected is 12.
 
#63
I hadn't visited Sagarin in quite awhile (likely because of our ineptitude over the past several years). It's nice that he now has a "predictor" too, which many rankings ignore. It's much better when these prognosticators look ahead to future opponents and venues rather than relying solely on results to date.

As an example, Sagarin is still a believer in Ohio State. They're presently ranked 38, their recent is 71 and projected is 12.
As of that sagarin post (1/21/20), Illinois would be the 9th in B10 ( :) )
 
#65
Winged Warrior
Welp....scUM gonna be fired up Sat.! Better not let up.
 
#67
Bonnaroo Land
scUM's lost 4 out of the last 5. I like our chances.
 
#69
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
I'll also add that your typical chart with odds of potential finish in the standings is outstanding --- extremely easy to comprehend. I like that it shows probabilities for all 14 teams.

Keep the updates coming!
I appreciate that! I've got things set up to run the analysis every night — next on the list is generating those charts automatically. Hope to continue making the updates more regular as the year goes along (Illinois winning is a great motivator :D)
 
#70
I'll make my prediction after their game against Penn St tomorrow. I think that could make a big difference. I DO NOT want to see us play a desperate Michigan team on a 3 game losing skid. They've lost 3 out of the last 4 and I hope they take out all that frustration by blowing the doors off Penn St instead of us.
Not a good feeling about this one. Have a feeling Michigan will make everything they throw up on Saturday. They can't afford to lose back to back home games. Hope I'm wrong.

That being said, it would be pretty fitting that the least experienced coach in the conference gets put through the wringer this year. In a conference full of great coaches, that's like an initiation. Welcome to the B1G!
 
#73
I appreciate that! I've got things set up to run the analysis every night — next on the list is generating those charts automatically. Hope to continue making the updates more regular as the year goes along (Illinois winning is a great motivator :D)
We appreciate you! JMO but I think it would make since to start a "B1G scenarios" thread you can update whenever you get the time. I'm interested to know if your stats can tell us what record will most likely give us a double bye. I'm blindly guessing that 12-6 would get the job done, and 11-9 would leave it up to tiebreakers.
 
#75
Michigan just lost at home to Penn State and Garza is going off for Iowa right now, leading Rutgers
 
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