Pregame: Illinois at Wisconsin, Wednesday, January 8th, 8:00pm CT, BTN

Status
Not open for further replies.
My prediction:

Wisky plays slow and takes away the transition we saw vs. Purdue, forcing us to play half court offense. We shoot 25-30% and lose by 10. It will feel like 20 though.
 
Looks like the same strategy as Michigan. Guard the 3 pt line and let the bigs take care of the cutters. They will try to draw our bigs outside to cover their bigs shooting 3 pointers. I would probably make them prove they can hurt us before I would open up the middle. They seem to be evenly balanced in both scoring and rebounding which probably means they are good at spreading the floor. Our guards quickness should be the difference. They won by 6 at home last year. This team is more than 6 points better than last year’s.
 
Will be at the game tonight. Hopeful, but not optimistic. For whatever reason, over the past 2+ years this team hasn't demonstrated that it is mentally tough, which is what it will take to win in Madison tonight.

Wisky vs. OSU, when it was winning time, Pretzl stepped up and hit a huge 3.
Wisky last year vs us, needed a big bucket in crunch time, Reuvers comes in with a huge putback.

Ayo hit a couple of big shots last year but overall, and, especially this year, we tend not to make plays like that. In fact, just the opposite (NM St, Maryland 2 years Miami, Maryland this year, a few others)

I think it's just confidence. We make a big play when it counts could turn our whole season around. Hope it happens. Go Illini!
 
Michigan
I think that’s a bubble team that probably makes it??? Win one more and we are good to go. I really don’t want to sweat it on selection Sunday.
That's my guess too. With the exceptions of NW and Nebraska (3 total games), the conference is pretty strong and our weakest remaining opponent is Purdue with a NET ranking of 51. We have 5 games with ranked opponents, so we will have to play well to get to 10-10.
 
As long as the team doesn't come out like they did against MSU, I'll be happy. I don't like seeing low effort. Execute and take good shots - I can't be upset if they don't go in on good decisions.
 
If we shoot like we did in the second half of the MSU game we lose. If we play def like we did against Pu we win. It should be a good game. I hope the refs stay out of it.
 
Looks like the same strategy as Michigan. Guard the 3 pt line and let the bigs take care of the cutters. They will try to draw our bigs outside to cover their bigs shooting 3 pointers. I would probably make them prove they can hurt us before I would open up the middle. They seem to be evenly balanced in both scoring and rebounding which probably means they are good at spreading the floor. Our guards quickness should be the difference. They won by 6 at home last year. This team is more than 6 points better than last year’s.
Agreed. But , mich was playing on the road...Reuvers will be shooting at home. Haven’t seen wisky play this year, not sure who the 4 is (mainly can they hit the three) but would Giorgi or kipper be a better matchup for Reuvers than Kofi?
 
Agreed. But , mich was playing on the road...Reuvers will be shooting at home. Haven’t seen wisky play this year, not sure who the 4 is (mainly can they hit the three) but would Giorgi or kipper be a better matchup for Reuvers than Kofi?
I think it's highly likely that they put Giorgi on Reuvers. He's a "stretch 5" and the last thing they want is Kofi guarding the arc, getting fouls when Ruevers drives, and being out of position for rebounds.
 
Likes: PlayAZ
Wisc. starts Ruevers 6"11 and Ford 6"8. Ruevers, is better from 3 than Ford (usually). They sub in Potter at 6"10.
 
Warren Nolan has us moving up from 68 to 54 in RPI with a win tonight. Up to 50 if Hampton and Nichols St both win due to SOS factors.

I realize NET is what matters but he doesn’t do NET projections since calculation isn’t public.

BTW, I’m pretty sure our 30 rank difference between NET and RPI is that NET factors scoring differential into the calculation.
 
I’m calling it now... Wiscky going to bait Ayo into 3s. He is averaging 0.82 pps from 3, and 1.27 pps excluding 3s.

Same with Damonte and Kipper. Wisky will be daring all three players to shoot the 3 ball.

I hope they play disciplined enough to not take those shots. Otherwise, a win might depend on one of Ayo, Kipper, or Damonte getting lucky/hot.

The problem with Ayo is that he can make a few 3s, but him shooting a 3 is statistically the worst thing he can do when be has the ball besides a turnover, or passing to Damonte or Kipper with them shooting it.
 
New York
I’m calling it now... Wiscky going to bait Ayo into 3s. He is averaging 0.82 pps from 3, and 1.27 pps excluding 3s.

Same with Damonte and Kipper. Wisky will be daring all three players to shoot the 3 ball.

I hope they play disciplined enough to not take those shots. Otherwise, a win might depend on one of Ayo, Kipper, or Damonte getting lucky/hot.

The problem with Ayo is that he can make a few 3s, but him shooting a 3 is statistically the worst thing he can do when be has the ball besides a turnover, or passing to Damonte or Kipper with them shooting it.
Our best sources of offense: 1. Transition. 2. Kofi or Giorgi down low against single defender. 3. Trent or Griffin shooting 3s. 4. Ayo mid range pull up.

Our ability to create looks in those ways is often limited, and when they are we stagnate and resort to having shaky shooters take 3s (ayo, Damonte, Giorgi, kip, Feliz). Agree with you that we can’t rely too heavily on that.

Our best case is to try to get out in transition and score at the bucket every time and when we get stifled, try to feed it into Giorgi or Kofi to pressure the interior. Then if a three opens up for Trent or griffin, give them the ball. Underwood needs to be teaching two things right now- (1) passing in and out of the post and (2) creating good looks for griffin and Trent through movement, screening etc.
 
Don't see Wisky throwing bricks all night like Purdue. Offense has hit shots at likely a higher % than year avg. and turnovers have to be single digits. Wisky gets back on defense as good as any so running and playing in a hurry is not going to work. I don't see our guys winning as they simply cannot match the Badgers in half court play and do not have much patience resulting in too many fumbles, charges, and wild shots as the shot clock winds down. Would a ever love to see better screens and cuts to provide better shots late in clock....but sure do not expect to see it. Kipper and Georgi need to be patient and efficient and get up good shots without turnovers....but again that would be unexpected. Wisky will likely put the slow torture on defense and build a lead all the way to the buzzer as the Illini build the turnovers to 16+ and their bigs take advantage of Kofi's defensive inexperience with jump hooks and short bank shots.

Confidence and patience are Wisky's strength and our weakness and our style makes those assets stronger. Now, I hope the Illini prove me wrong and show they are patient, take care of the ball, play under control, put up good shots, rebound with a vengeance, play all out defense. and show they know how to play the game like a confident B1G team!
That's bull, get the ball to Kofi, they have no one to come close to matching him inside. The guards have to feed the post, because they play off of Giorgi. Drive the ball and feed the post on O, keep up the rebounding and D and we win. We're the better team.
 
Iowa got in last year with 10 conf. wins, but they had non-conference wins over Oregon and Iowa St. But the conference wasn't as strong last year, and they were terrible down the stretch (2-8 in last 10). I think given the quality of conference this year, Illini can get in with 11 wins. Take care of home court and beat NW on the road and I think they're in -- especially because that would mean wins over MD and MSU to go along with the Michigan victory already in the bank. Getting another one on the road would be nice though in case lose one at home.
 
I would think KB and GB will both draw some attention in the post. Sure feed the post, but WISC knows this too. Il gonna have to hit some shots and go to basket.
 
I would think KB and GB will both draw some attention in the post. Sure feed the post, but WISC knows this too. Il gonna have to hit some shots and go to basket.
I'm thinking Wisc is either going to have to cheat a wing inside to try and deny the ball or be ready to help on Kofi or Kofi going to get a chance for a big game and to shoot some free throws. So there should be chances at some open shots where the help defender vacates and for Kofi to feed slashers to the basket when he doubled. The other strategy that I suspect they may try is using Potter to defend him until fouls are a problem.
But give Wisc their due, these guys are closer to Social Security than probably any team in the country. Because of multiple Redshirts, their rotation is basically 5 Seniors+ (a fifth year), 4 juniors and a freshman. That's a lost of experience to play against.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.