Pregame: Illinois vs Northwestern, Saturday, January 18th, 4:00pm CT, BTN

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#81
I really hope the Purdue win was a turning point for this crew. We need to handle Northwestern on Saturday, keep our confidence up and then go into the next week (at Minnesota and at #19 Michigan) with the swag of a ranked team who has won four straight and just see what happens ... there is literally no reason we can't win every game, in a vacuum, left on our schedule. Obviously, we are very unlikely to win out ... but I hope a newfound confidence has taken hold in our team and we can truly "ascend." This league is anyone's, quite frankly. We have one of the few road wins, and we have looked very tough at home. I'm keeping my expectations in check, but man ... I'm a believer in these guys!
 
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#82
Scottsdale, AZ
My apologies as I do not know where to put this question. But I signed up for the BTN online package to watch a couple of this years early games that were only televised via this online source. I failed to cancel it when it became irrelevant for watching the ILLINI games. Can anyone please help? Again , my apologies for posting here. #24 Baby , been a Long Time! Been a fan since Levi Cobb!
 
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#84
Any game that starts with an @
I'd say we should EXPECT - hypothetically, at least - to win at Northwestern. Past that, I predict we will steal one of the following:

at Purdue
at #19 Michigan
at Iowa
at Rutgers
at Penn State

Winning one of those would be great, winning two would be amazing and more than that could literally put us in contention for first place, haha.
 
#85
I really hope the Purdue win was a turning point for this crew. We need to handle Northwestern on Saturday, keep our confidence up and then go into the next week (at Minnesota and at #19 Michigan) with the swag of a ranked team who has won four straight and just see what happens ... there is literally no reason we can't win every game, in a vacuum, left on our schedule. Obviously, we are very unlikely to win out ... but I hope a newfound confidence has taken hold in our team and we can truly "ascend." This league is anyone's, quite frankly. We have one of the few road wins, and we have looked very tough at home. I'm keeping my expectations in check, but man ... I'm a believer in these guys!
Would like to see a blowout in this Sat game. Need to build an intimidation factor for away games. Smile every time I hear opposing coaches talk about the problem dealing with our size. Great to be the bullier instead of the buliee. Would be a real statement for Ayo to leave as BIG champion. Why not us?
 
#86
I think you all are crazy. This team is playing. There are too many (4) players who will not let this team lose. Only going to be three more losses this year.
23-8?
Hmm...
It’s not impossible, but very unlikely with matches against Maryland, MSU, UM, Iowa, OSU and a tough group of bottom tier teams.
I’d be pretty hyped if they finish out at 23 wins for the season.
 
#87
I really need to get my standings projector running again, as this is the perfect season for it. I would love to know how likely the 10-team pileup really is — I'm sure it's the most probable scenario, but how probable is it, really? 10% chance? 50%? So far I haven't seen anyone publishing that kind of distributional outcome analysis.
That would be amazing. Please do!
 
#89
I'd say we should EXPECT - hypothetically, at least - to win at Northwestern. Past that, I predict we will steal one of the following:

at Purdue
at #19 Michigan
at Iowa
at Rutgers
at Penn State

Winning one of those would be great, winning two would be amazing and more than that could literally put us in contention for first place, haha.
I'm really hoping that the players are not reading the boards. While it's fine for all of us to speculate about W/L for the rest of the season I don't want our players to look past the next game and I think they have matured to the point where they won't either. It's great to anticipate punching our ticket to the dance especially since this is a far more realistic possibility than we've had in the past few years but there are many games left between now and March Madness. I think there are some opportunities to pick up some unanticipated wins and solidify our position. There are also chances to falter and lose a game we expect to win. Both are likely to happen. I just hope we take each game one at a time, spend the extra time to scout teams and come prepared to each game. I think we can win enough games to make a case for a spot on selection Sunday. The last few games have given me reason to believe this will happen. Go Illini!
 
#90
Look at the remaining schedule and tell me where we will get the losses.
I can relatively easily see 1 or 2 losses at home and at least 2 on Road. If we beat Michigan and Purdue on the road and MSU at home, I'll start making plans for 2d weekend travel in the tourney.
 
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#95
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
So, after cursing out my 2016 self for lots of shoddy work, I managed to get things running again. I won't swear this is error free, but eh, it's sports ;)

Based on KP rankings and 10k simulations, I'm coming up with something a bit different than bboiler. MSU with only a 53% chance at the top seed, probably because KP likes Maryland quite a bit. These are in order of average finish. I'm very fond of the 1-in-3 shot at a double bye!
1578979010261.png


Tiebreakers aren't having a huge effect at this stage, except to hurt MSU's championship hopes slightly, give us a slight boost towards the 3 seed for some reason, and (mainly) kick Nebraska towards the basement as they've lost to Northwestern once already.
1578978711732.png


Finally, a new question for this year — what would the projected standings look like if every team were equally talented? So far we're about 25% of the way through the season. How much of the above projection is based on the strength of the team, and how much is due to the results to date?

Here's what the predictions would look like if every game left were a coin toss. MSU is still the favorite, but no longer an odds-on favorite for the 1 seed versus the field.
1578979121882.png


And here's the change versus the actual forecast (ordered by the actual forecast). OSU is the stand-out here. Neglecting team strength, their start would leave them with a >50% chance of a bottom-4 finish. But, because KP thinks they're the 7th best team in the country, those odds are closer to 10%. For Illinois, relative team strength roughly halves our chances of a B1G title (5% vs. 12%), but also roughly halves our chance of a disastrous no-bye finish (8% vs. 13%).

1578979193729.png


Last note — at this point there appears to be a roughly 1-in-400 chance of a coin toss being used for a B1G tourney seeding tiebreaker.
 
#96
I really just started to appreciate the IMMENSE opportunity we've given ourselves to get a good seed for the BTT ... that could be absolutely essential to getting the kind of NCAAT seed that could set us up for a potential run in March to really get this program going.
 
#97
South Carolina
So, after cursing out my 2016 self for lots of shoddy work, I managed to get things running again. I won't swear this is error free, but eh, it's sports ;)

Based on KP rankings and 10k simulations, I'm coming up with something a bit different than bboiler. MSU with only a 53% chance at the top seed, probably because KP likes Maryland quite a bit. These are in order of average finish. I'm very fond of the 1-in-3 shot at a double bye!
View attachment 5470

Tiebreakers aren't having a huge effect at this stage, except to hurt MSU's championship hopes slightly, give us a slight boost towards the 3 seed for some reason, and (mainly) kick Nebraska towards the basement as they've lost to Northwestern once already.
View attachment 5469

Finally, a new question for this year — what would the projected standings look like if every team were equally talented? So far we're about 25% of the way through the season. How much of the above projection is based on the strength of the team, and how much is due to the results to date?

Here's what the predictions would look like if every game left were a coin toss. MSU is still the favorite, but no longer an odds-on favorite for the 1 seed versus the field.
View attachment 5471

And here's the change versus the actual forecast (ordered by the actual forecast). OSU is the stand-out here. Neglecting team strength, their start would leave them with a >50% chance of a bottom-4 finish. But, because KP thinks they're the 7th best team in the country, those odds are closer to 10%. For Illinois, relative team strength roughly halves our chances of a B1G title (5% vs. 12%), but also roughly halves our chance of a disastrous no-bye finish (8% vs. 13%).

View attachment 5472

Last note — at this point there appears to be a roughly 1-in-400 chance of a coin toss being used for a B1G tourney seeding tiebreaker.
Exceptional work. I love this thing!! Let's keep it updated throughout the season.
 
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Look at the remaining schedule and tell me where we will get the losses.
I would say losses at Purdue, MSU, Iowa, Rutgers would be at least 4....then PSU and OSU on the road we will be very lucky to get 1 of those...so there's 5....then beating MSU at home and Iowa at home I would say getting one of those .......so I'm saying 6 more losses quite possibly 7 would be more realistic ....I hope you're right....but 1 win away from the SFC....2 counting Grand Canyon hasn't got my hopes up yet to say well only lose 4 more games this year with 7 remaining road games and some tough home games as well.....can we do that.....sure.....likely.....gotta be smoking something
 
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