In looking at the remaining 14 games, I break them into three distinct groups: First 4 = all winnable (3-1 would be great given the two tough road games); Middle 5 = all lose-able and our toughest stretch (2-3 would be satisfactory); Final 5 = all winnable (I'd settle for 3-2). 8-6 the rest of the way, combined with 12-5 so far leaves us at:
7 away games. 3 we must win at a min, 4 probable,6 possible.
I'm a little pessimistic like you. I can see us going 7 and 7 here on out. losing to Iowa and/or Mich and MSU at home and winning NW and one other on road. That leaves us at 19 and 12 and hopefully we can get 1 in BTN tournament and squeak in to NCAA tourney. I think we can go 8 and 6 or better if we play consistently tough like last 3 games.Which 4 road games do you think are probable? I know you are a stats guy and am curious.
I’m not as optimistic. After NW at home I just hope to win 6 of the last 13. That would put us at 18 wins not counting Lindenwood. At 18-12 would probably need to win one in the BTT to feel a little better.
We have played 5 of the top 6 B1G defenses, according to Trank. And Michigan is 9th. So our offense is doing ok given the circumstances.
Northwestern is not good defensively. I'll be happy with a win regardless, but it would be nice to put up 75+ for a change. And maybe give us some confidence.
I'm a little pessimistic like you. I can see us going 7 and 7 here on out. losing to Iowa and/or Mich and MSU at home and winning NW and one other on road. That leaves us at 19 and 12 and hopefully we can get 1 in BTN tournament and squeak in to NCAA tourney. I think we can go 8 and 6 or better if we play consistently tough like last 3 games.
I think we've turned the corner. We may have some misfiring cylinders, and around the corner is still a large hill.....but the end of the last two games have shown what this team is becoming. Relentless.
With the defense we've shown in the last three games, we have a very real chance to win every single game remaining. Of course we won't, but I genuinely feel after watching us throw up bricks...and still closing....we know how to win now.
Illini - 69
Kittens -48
Pretty much exactly how I see it as well.In looking at the remaining 14 games, I break them into three distinct groups: First 4 = all winnable (3-1 would be great given the two tough road games); Middle 5 = all lose-able and our toughest stretch (2-3 would be satisfactory); Final 5 = all winnable (I'd settle for 3-2). 8-6 the rest of the way, combined with 12-5 so far leaves us at:
20-11 Regular Season
12- 8 Conference
1-1 in the Big 10 tournament and we enter the Dance at 21-12 with some high quality wins. Gotta beat NW at home. Go Illini!!
I'm a little pessimistic like you. I can see us going 7 and 7 here on out. losing to Iowa and/or Mich and MSU at home and winning NW and one other on road. That leaves us at 19 and 12 and hopefully we can get 1 in BTN tournament and squeak in to NCAA tourney. I think we can go 8 and 6 or better if we play consistently tough like last 3 games.
The bummer is if we took care of business at Mizzou and against Miami....we would all probably be making notional travel plans to a tourney site. Because your 6 and 8 "collapse" would still probably get us in tourney if we had Mizzou/Miami victories under our belts now.Pretty much exactly how I see it as well.
18 wins if we totally collapse
20 wins if we play how we have the last couple weeks
22 wins if we really start clicking
Plus a B1G tournament win
6 seed in the big dance
7 home games. 6 are winnable. Could win all 7.
7 away games. 3 we must win at a min, 4 probable,6 possible. (based mostly on our D. I expect it to mature even more.)
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I also think we have turned the corner but with one huge asterisk. This team would not have lost to Miami or given up the lead at Maryland but at crunch time, the last 5-7 minutes, this team lately has been 1 junior, 3 sophomores and one freshman playing big minutes together. This is still a young team that has enjoyed limited success so far and is still learning how to win.I think we've turned the corner. We may have some misfiring cylinders, and around the corner is still a large hill.....but the end of the last two games have shown what this team is becoming. Relentless.
With the defense we've shown in the last three games, we have a very real chance to win every single game remaining. Of course we won't, but I genuinely feel after watching us throw up bricks...and still closing....we know how to win now.
Illini - 69
Kittens -48
Every game is big. Kill the Cats.