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Old Nov 27, 2017, 04:21 PM   #1
TownieMatt
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I've changed things around a little bit for a deeper dive into advanced player stats. Note that these are for players that have played more than 30 minutes on the season. Here's how the players grade-out heading into the meater part of the non-conference schedule.


Takeaways:
- Despite the emphasis on newcomers going into the season, this team has been lead by a group of returning "veterans" thus far.
- Aaron Jordan has been off the charts in terms of efficiency so far. He's bound to regress, but he has a chance to establish himself as a go-to guy for this team.
- Te'Jon Lucas and Mark Alstork haven't hit their strides yet. I expect both to improve, but I do have concerns about Te'Jon's playing style in this offense. I see a higher ceiling for Alstork once he finds his role offensively.

Last edited by Dan; Nov 27, 2017 at 04:31 PM.
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Old Nov 27, 2017, 04:26 PM   #2
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very cool! I love graphs, I just think they tell the story more easily.
It is staggering to have (basically) no one between 20% and 40% from three.
No one on the team in the normal range.
Definitely expect some changes going forward, after making that observation.

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Old Nov 27, 2017, 04:29 PM   #3
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Are we the smartest, coolest fan board in the country, or what?
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Old Nov 27, 2017, 04:31 PM   #4
JFGsCoffeeMug
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TownieMatt View Post
Digging up this old thread to update the dashboard for the new season. I've changed things around a little bit for a deeper dive into advanced player stats. Note that these are for players that have played more than 30 minutes on the season. Here's how the players grade-out heading into the meater part of the non-conference schedule.


Takeaways:
- Despite the emphasis on newcomers going into the season, this team has been lead by a group of returning "veterans" thus far.
- Aaron Jordan has been off the charts in terms of efficiency so far. He's bound to regress, but he has a chance to establish himself as a go-to guy for this team.
- Te'Jon Lucas and Mark Alstork haven't hit their strides yet. I expect both to improve, but I do have concerns about Te'Jon's playing style in this offense. I see a higher ceiling for Alstork once he finds his role offensively.
Dashboard looks great! Thanks for the efforts, Matt.

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Old Nov 27, 2017, 04:41 PM   #5
TownieMatt
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Originally Posted by jmilt7 View Post
Are we the smartest, coolest fan board in the country, or what?
If nerdy stats are cool...

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Old Nov 27, 2017, 04:46 PM   #6
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This is AWESOME! I love this crap
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Old Nov 27, 2017, 05:15 PM   #7
BananaShampoo
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Love. It.

Only request is to make sure the player's names are correct on there:

De'Monte = Da'Monte

Fraizer = Frazier

I thought it interesting that Mark Smith wasn't higher in more categories, but it seems his efficiency has been lacking and so far his nice point totals have been the result of more touches/volume. Unless that last game where he was just really off knocked his stats down that much.

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Old Nov 27, 2017, 08:06 PM   #8
TheLegendaryOne24
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Originally Posted by BananaShampoo View Post
Love. It.

Only request is to make sure the player's names are correct on there:

De'Monte = Da'Monte

Fraizer = Frazier

I thought it interesting that Mark Smith wasn't higher in more categories, but it seems his efficiency has been lacking and so far his nice point totals have been the result of more touches/volume. Unless that last game where he was just really off knocked his stats down that much.
Smith numbers are low but realistically he doesn't get a ton of touches...
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Old Nov 27, 2017, 08:22 PM   #9
TownieMatt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BananaShampoo View Post
Love. It.

Only request is to make sure the player's names are correct on there:

De'Monte = Da'Monte

Fraizer = Frazier

I thought it interesting that Mark Smith wasn't higher in more categories, but it seems his efficiency has been lacking and so far his nice point totals have been the result of more touches/volume. Unless that last game where he was just really off knocked his stats down that much.
Pulled straight from Basketball Reference. Didn't think they'd screw that up...

As for Smith, I think his lack of rebounding and poor outside shooting % are most of the reason. His impressive drives through contact only count for 2pt to the stat guy.
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Old Nov 27, 2017, 08:28 PM   #10
I Bomb
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Jordan's doing so well, I wonder if the staff expands his role or doesn't mess with a good thing...
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Old Nov 27, 2017, 09:27 PM   #11
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I suspect AJ will stay where he is for now. He commits a fair number of fouls and might be in constant risk of fouling out as a starter. I think BU will prefer to have him available for "situations".
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Old Nov 28, 2017, 02:29 AM   #12
ILLHangOut
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Originally Posted by TownieMatt View Post
His impressive drives through contact only count for 2pt to the stat guy.
That's an interesting thought... His drives do cause the other team to foul. Per 40 minutes he averages 8 FTAs, which means the other team has committed at least 4 to 8 fouls defending him.

A PF is more than just a scoring opportunity. PFs compound contributing to the bonus, and by putting opposing players on the bench.

PER penalizes players for their PFs, but does not award them for fouls drawn beyond the result of the free throws.

It would be interesting to see if that value could be quantized. I don't think I've seen that done anywhere. PER already uses the factor (LeagueFTA / LeaguePF), so the inverse could be used to project fouls drawn.
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Old Nov 28, 2017, 02:59 AM   #13
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Old Nov 28, 2017, 03:50 AM   #14
ILLHangOut
So far this season we have:
League FTA = 44,407
League PF = 39,710
League Minutes = 84,180

Which calculates a baseline for the NCAA of:
0.90 PF per FTA
0.47 PF per game minute
0.09 PF per player minute

This conveniently calculates to an average of 19 PF per team per 40 minute game for the NCAA.This is convenient because each additional foul accumulated greater than this rate is projected in the double bonus, and counts as 2 FTAs for either himself or another player on his team.

Mark Smith this season draws a projected 0.17 PFs per minute played; twice the NCAA baseline. This implies then that every 13 minutes he plays he is drawing 1 additional foul beyond the baseline which contributes 2 FTs to his team at some point in the game.

PER uses the factor below for FTs:
+ (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG)))

I think we can adapt this for the double bonus contribution by replacing player FT with:
(FT + TeamFT% * 2* ((FTA * LgPF / LgFTA) - (MP * LgPF / LgMin / 5)))

For Mark Smith this adds 0.1 to his UNSTANDARDIZED PER. Since PER is standardized on 15 being average, and I'm too tired to calculate his whole PER to deduce the standardization factor, I guess it doesn't have much meaning.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
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Old Nov 28, 2017, 05:51 AM   #15
illinitiger
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Originally Posted by ILLHangOut View Post
So far this season we have:
League FTA = 44,407
League PF = 39,710
League Minutes = 84,180

Which calculates a baseline for the NCAA of:
0.90 PF per FTA
0.47 PF per game minute
0.09 PF per player minute

This conveniently calculates to an average of 19 PF per team per 40 minute game for the NCAA.This is convenient because each additional foul accumulated greater than this rate is projected in the double bonus, and counts as 2 FTAs for either himself or another player on his team.

Mark Smith this season draws a projected 0.17 PFs per minute played; twice the NCAA baseline. This implies then that every 13 minutes he plays he is drawing 1 additional foul beyond the baseline which contributes 2 FTs to his team at some point in the game.

PER uses the factor below for FTs:
+ (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG)))

I think we can adapt this for the double bonus contribution by replacing player FT with:
(FT + TeamFT% * 2* ((FTA * LgPF / LgFTA) - (MP * LgPF / LgMin / 5)))

For Mark Smith this adds 0.1 to his UNSTANDARDIZED PER. Since PER is standardized on 15 being average, and I'm too tired to calculate his whole PER to deduce the standardization factor, I guess it doesn't have much meaning.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
You sir get my vote for stat geek of the day!

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Old Nov 28, 2017, 09:49 AM   #16
TownieMatt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ILLHangOut View Post
So far this season we have:
League FTA = 44,407
League PF = 39,710
League Minutes = 84,180

Which calculates a baseline for the NCAA of:
0.90 PF per FTA
0.47 PF per game minute
0.09 PF per player minute

This conveniently calculates to an average of 19 PF per team per 40 minute game for the NCAA.This is convenient because each additional foul accumulated greater than this rate is projected in the double bonus, and counts as 2 FTAs for either himself or another player on his team.

Mark Smith this season draws a projected 0.17 PFs per minute played; twice the NCAA baseline. This implies then that every 13 minutes he plays he is drawing 1 additional foul beyond the baseline which contributes 2 FTs to his team at some point in the game.

PER uses the factor below for FTs:
+ (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG)))

I think we can adapt this for the double bonus contribution by replacing player FT with:
(FT + TeamFT% * 2* ((FTA * LgPF / LgFTA) - (MP * LgPF / LgMin / 5)))

For Mark Smith this adds 0.1 to his UNSTANDARDIZED PER. Since PER is standardized on 15 being average, and I'm too tired to calculate his whole PER to deduce the standardization factor, I guess it doesn't have much meaning.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
A+

And you showed your work, which my algebra teachers always loved. So the takeaway is that his ability to get to the foul line wouldn't boost his PER all that much. Of course it does boost his scoring output, so it helps in that sense.

Mark's ability to score thus far this season without shooting the ball well has been impressive. Once he starts hitting shots from the outside, teams will be forced to close out on him and he'll get more easy buckets at the rim.

Mark Smith has the potential to be a really efficient player.
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Old Dec 4, 2017, 10:08 AM   #17
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UPDATED: 12.4.17

Added a matrix of individual player stats. All stats are per 40 minutes (stat glossary).

Aaron Jordan is still a monster.


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Old Dec 4, 2017, 10:35 AM   #18
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Thanks, Matt.

O/D WS/40 shows Mark Smith is contributing the least defensively of our main rotation, and his offense doesn't quite make up for that yet. But as those dots start moving to the right, his minutes will surely increase.

Kudos to KN for dominating the rebounding chart. Keep up the good work.

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Old Dec 4, 2017, 11:02 AM   #19
TownieMatt
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Thanks, Matt.

O/D WS/40 shows Mark Smith is contributing the least defensively of our main rotation, and his offense doesn't quite make up for that yet. But as those dots start moving to the right, his minutes will surely increase.

Kudos to KN for dominating the rebounding chart. Keep up the good work.
Yea, advanced stats back up BU's decision to limit Smith's minutes. He just isn't providing enough defensively or on the glass to justify a big role. I think we all see the potential there, but he's still figuring out his role. It can be a tough adjustment going from having the ball in your hands all the time in HS to playing off the ball in the B1G.

Kipper is a beast on the glass. I think we're going to continue to see a frontcourt of Leron and Kipper in crunch-time.
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Old Dec 4, 2017, 11:07 AM   #20
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Old Dec 4, 2017, 11:45 AM   #21
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This is great stuff. I'm really glad you are posting it from time to time.
Question: How is it that Kipper doesn't have a blue defense dot? Is it directly under the orange offense dot?

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Old Dec 4, 2017, 11:48 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by FeelYourPaign View Post
This is great stuff. I'm really glad you are posting it from time to time.
Question: How is it that Kipper doesn't have a blue defense dot? Is it directly under the orange offense dot?
Nice catch! Yup, the two points are equal, so it's just showing his OWS/40.
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Old Dec 4, 2017, 12:38 PM   #23
kory111
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Look at the 3pt %.
All the freshman under 16%. Ouch. But when they hit their stride and that goes up to 30% we are going to win a lot of games if the rest of the team stays anywhere near what they are shooting.
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Old Dec 4, 2017, 01:00 PM   #24
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Look at the 3pt %.
All the freshman under 16%. Ouch. But when they hit their stride and that goes up to 30% we are going to win a lot of games if the rest of the team stays anywhere near what they are shooting.
Mark and Trent need to curtail their selection and their conversion rates will go up. They take some deep, unnecessary 3s.
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Old Dec 4, 2017, 02:25 PM   #25
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When will Aaron Jordan and Kipper Nichols be in the starting rotation????? They have been major contributors the whole season and the team does better when they are on the floor. Its time for Alstork to take a back seat. He is mid major talent and is playing like it.
RE: Alstork

Did you even watch last night's game? He's one of the best, if not the best defender on the team and knocked down clutch 3s and free throws near the end of the game. Everyone is still getting a feel for this offense and how they contribute.

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