Weberball
December 27, 2008 4:33 PM
I don't know how many of you have felt that this year's team bears some resemblance to the '05 team, but I've certainly felt that at least our style of play has been very similar this season.
So, for those who are into tempo-free stats, here's an interesting comparison:
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Illinois&y=2009
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Illinois&y=2005
(If you don't know what the stats mean, there are links to explanations on the page.)
The similarities are pretty uncanny. A textbook Weber team plays at a tempo somewhat below the national average, gets assists on ~70% of made baskets, is moderately good at offensive rebounding, and shoots a very high percentage from the field while hardly ever getting to the line. Defensively, Weber's best teams succeed by doing everything pretty well but nothing exceptionally well: rebounding, forcing turnovers, preventing good shots, and preventing free throws.
But the comparison to the '05 team also points out a couple of flaws that this year's team ought to focus on: defensive rebounding and turnovers. The '05 team was 60th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage; this year's edition is 193rd. And the '05 team was 2nd in the nation by turning the ball over on only 16.6% of offensive possessions; this year's squad is 145th with turnovers on 20.3% of possessions.
Fix those two flaws to Weberball standards, and my back-of-the-envelope estimate is that we'd be on the borderline of the top 10 nationally on both sides of the ball. So I'll be keeping my eyes on those two numbers during the upcoming games. If we can limit our turnovers and get defensive boards consistently, we could well take home a share of the conference title. Fail to do those things well, and I doubt we'll improve enough during the conference season to compete for the title.
Illest (Forums)
Filed under: Illini Basketball
So, for those who are into tempo-free stats, here's an interesting comparison:
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Illinois&y=2009
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Illinois&y=2005
(If you don't know what the stats mean, there are links to explanations on the page.)
The similarities are pretty uncanny. A textbook Weber team plays at a tempo somewhat below the national average, gets assists on ~70% of made baskets, is moderately good at offensive rebounding, and shoots a very high percentage from the field while hardly ever getting to the line. Defensively, Weber's best teams succeed by doing everything pretty well but nothing exceptionally well: rebounding, forcing turnovers, preventing good shots, and preventing free throws.
But the comparison to the '05 team also points out a couple of flaws that this year's team ought to focus on: defensive rebounding and turnovers. The '05 team was 60th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage; this year's edition is 193rd. And the '05 team was 2nd in the nation by turning the ball over on only 16.6% of offensive possessions; this year's squad is 145th with turnovers on 20.3% of possessions.
Fix those two flaws to Weberball standards, and my back-of-the-envelope estimate is that we'd be on the borderline of the top 10 nationally on both sides of the ball. So I'll be keeping my eyes on those two numbers during the upcoming games. If we can limit our turnovers and get defensive boards consistently, we could well take home a share of the conference title. Fail to do those things well, and I doubt we'll improve enough during the conference season to compete for the title.
Illest (Forums)
