John Groce at Illinois

[mattcoldagelli]

I don't think Groce is the finished article as a coach. Just like players, coaches improve with experience, and Groce is still a young coach. Perhaps he was a bit too inflexible with his offensive approach in past seasons, expecting players to quickly adapt to his dribble-drive offense. But I think Groce has shown more of a willingness to adapt this season (he's had no choice), using the post extensively when Thorne was healthy, and now allowing our wing players to create with Nunn back in the lineup. I see signs of improvement from Groce.

This is the best argument in his favor. He seems relatively open to trying new things, or at least letting personnel dictate strategy decisions, even if the results aren't always pretty. One of Weber's biggest faults was digging in and treating any deviation from his preferred approach as a total failure.

But still, the fact is, the pro-Groce argument right now is mostly built on spec. He might have built up enough personal goodwill that people (myself included) are willing to overlook what has been a very underwhelming on-the-court product. I think most people WANT him to succeed here, which may not count for a ton, but it's something. It's more than what Weber had in his final year and a half.

 

[Tevo]

Another way to look at this: If we needed a coach right now and you heard we were hiring a guy from, say, the ACC who went 70-49 in 3.5 seasons, and was 24-32 in conference games, and had missed the tournament 3 years in a row, would you accept that? Oh, but the stories would say, he had a lot of injuries to deal with. Would that make it okay?

To put it more harshly: Why do we want a guy that nobody else in a major conference would hire?

Again, I like Groce as a person, but there isn't a lot of tangible evidence on the floor that he will be able to turn the team around and get them where we all think they should be. We may still be best served by waiting to see, but if we're still in the same position in January 2017 or 2018, nobody should be the least bit surprised.

 

[89illinigrad]

People tend to forget that it took Lou Henson, our Hall of Fame coach, 6 years to get us to our first NCAA tourney under him.

Granted, he inherited a team that was abysmal in the two seasons prior to his arrival.

Nonetheless, it took him some time to establish relationships within the state and get the Chicago pipeline going.

Too many people expect instant gratification, when it really takes some time to build relationships and get a recruiting pipeline started.

I think that next season will be the key one for Groce. With or without Abrams and/or Thorne, we should have enough talent to finish between 4th and 6th in the BIG. Getting Black back and healthy will be key and we can expect further improvement from JCL, Finke, AJ and DJW, especially on the defensive end.

If Abrams and Thorne are back, we have the potential to be even better.

 

[Jreed322]

I like Groce but year one he was 8-10 in the B1G and we were a bubble team. Only won 2 more conference games than the year before. Just saying that maybe the last two years have been so bad it's clouded our memory a little. I hope he sticks around but the bar definitely needs to be raised.

We were a 7 seed. That's not a "bubble team".

 

[Jreed322]

We WERE lucky to get Thorne. Now, is getting lucky every now and again part of how it goes in recruiting? Yeah. But people treating the Thorne injury as if it derailed some master plan sound ridiculous.

We weren't lucky to get Thorne at all. Transfers happen all the time now and we did what was necessary to beat out the rest of the competition. And who's using Thornes injury as derailing some master plan? Thornes injury is a major blow even if everyone else was healthy. Throw the rest of the mash unit on top and you see what happens.

 

[Jreed322]

Most indicators to the contrary this season. Defense is the most frustrating thing to me right now. We're all well aware that demands are being made of guys who should be further down the depth chart, but (and I will admit to not having been able to watch the tOSU game) I've not seen effort and hustle on the defensive end the majority of games this year.

Just to be clear, I'm not referring to our guys being a step slower or not having the height and length, I'm talking about guys not talking, not hustling, getting lost on switches, and not even trying for rebounding position. Maybe that was better on Sunday, I don't know, but the box score doesn't indicate significant progress--no blocked shots, we got out-rebounded 42-33, and had only 2 steals.

Right now we're last in the B1G in rebounding, 9th in steals, and last in blocked shots. Defense wins games in the B1G. Offense keeps you in it, and it looks like that was the case on Sunday, but Defense wins.

You can't use just this year as an argument for Groce not being able to teach team defense. His first three defensive teams were good or above average at least I believe. Also, don't you think losing Thorne and black has had an impact on the rebounding/blocked shots stats? (Hint: it has)

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

People tend to forget that it took Lou Henson, our Hall of Fame coach, 6 years to get us to our first NCAA tourney under him.

Granted, he inherited a team that was abysmal in the two seasons prior to his arrival.

Nonetheless, it took him some time to establish relationships within the state and get the Chicago pipeline going.

With all due respect, people "forget" that because it was 40 years ago and a completely different era in many, many ways. And IMO you're underselling how bad of a situation Henson inherited. I'm not sure he would have been given as much patience in today's world.

 

[illinitiger]

With all due respect, people "forget" that because it was 40 years ago and a completely different era in many, many ways. And IMO you're underselling how bad of a situation Henson inherited. I'm not sure he would have been given as much patience in today's world.

Are you implying this era of fans is less patient?

 

[89illinigrad]

With all due respect, people "forget" that because it was 40 years ago and a completely different era in many, many ways. And IMO you're underselling how bad of a situation Henson inherited. I'm not sure he would have been given as much patience in today's world.

That's one of the points I was trying to make that people today have very little patience. If we don't see results in 3 years or so, people start talking about firing the coach and finding someone "better".

Also, I think people are understating how bad of a situation Groce inherited as well.

Bottom line, I don't think that any new AD is going to fire Groce after this season, especially since we don't even know if the new AD will be in place before the season ends.

Thus, as I said before, next year is Groce's make or break year and if the season is as good as I think it can be, we are more likely to see Groce signed to an extension.

 

[themudflap]

Really?, you had high expectations for year 1 then. Lost Leonard from a team that didn't make the tournament, Egwu at center was a huge question mark, Abrams the only pg, Paul was largely untapped potential, DJ, Griffey, McLaurin nice role players... and we were a play or a bad call from taking down a 2 seed to make the sweet 16.

Your right TA shouldn't have been on this team, but if he wasn't you have one more scholarship to go out and find another pg or big...so you can't dismiss him either. Thorne was a great pick up, if he had stayed healthy, but if we hadn't gotten him again we likely would have gotten someone with that scholarship.

Missing the tournament 3 years in a row is a disaster and Groce needs to turn that around, but this is the direction Webber had us headed after 2009 class graduated, with 2010 class not lasting, 2011 class with too much dead weight, and no 2012 class. Groce hasn't turned the ship around on the court and at some point excuses need to end, but we also have had what looks like some extremely bad luck this year with injuries, recruiting wise at pg, transfers who haven't panned out...I still think he can get us there, but it is and will get harder to recruit without some on court success.

I do not consider making the NCAA's with a veteran team high expectations. People forget that that team made the NCAA's the year before Weber's last season with BP and DJ as guards. There was no reason to not expect a team led by two senior guards, still had a big guy in the middle who gave you defense and rebounding, and plenty of other pieces to make the tourney. Which they did.

For those mad about my comment on TA and Thorne. JG had open scholies to fill regardless of their situation and missed. He has taken to many transfers when he should have been taking guys that could have come in and developed. Instead, he went for the quick fixes, home runs, and it did not work. Many were banking on TA this year. Now its next year. Hopefully, he plays next year and TJL brings something as well as we need it. All of this is on JG. Like it or not. By the way, he was my pick for coach when we were looking. The results of the last three years are why I have my doubts. I have a hard time believing he survives this year. He needs to do better recruiting the home state and I do not mean just grabbing the top guys. If this season tanks, we will be lucky to be picked middle of the pack. Why would we be picked higher?

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Thus, as I said before, next year is Groce's make or break year and if the season is as good as I think it can be, we are more likely to see Groce signed to an extension.

I agree, I actually think this year was "make or break" and the combination of the injuries and a new AD will likely push things back a year. I don't know about an extension, that may depend on the quality of the 2017 class he gets.

 

[Bailey]

For those up in arms about our lack of pursuit on the offensive glass, here's a great link from today. Purveyors of "old school" basketball should hide under the covers.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14505051/transition-defense-left-offensive-rebounds-cutting-room-floor

Popovich was among the first in a wave of coaches to order four or even all five players to run back on defense the moment a shot went up. Retreating prevents fast-break points and forces opposing offenses to work against both a set defense and the dwindling shot clock. That is the first step in quieting explosive opponents, and any tactic that ran counter to it -- such as having too many guys crash the offensive glass -- would be used only in tiny doses. It is almost orthodoxy in most of the NBA today: Offensive rebounding doesn't matter, especially because it threatens the integrity of your defense.

It's particularly relevant in our Thorne-less lineup. If you like Finke shooting threes (yes, please), we have to abandon the pursuit of offensive boards. Can't have both.

 

[illinitiger]

For those up in arms about our lack of pursuit on the offensive glass, here's a great link from today. Purveyors of "old school" basketball should hide under the covers.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/1...se-left-offensive-rebounds-cutting-room-floor



It's particularly relevant in our Thorne-less lineup. If you like Finke shooting threes (yes, please), we have to abandon the pursuit of offensive boards. Can't have both.

The corollary to this is we should be running on those teams crashing the offensive boards (when we get the DRB of course).

 

[Bailey]

The corollary to this is we should be running on those teams crashing the offensive boards (when we get the DRB of course).

I've noticed an uptick in pace this year. We've seen a lot of Kendrick taking the reigns in the open floor. I don't have the metrics, but it seems as though he almost always gets a bucket or a foul.

 

[sigint]

To me, everything seems pretty simple. If you want to ignore all context, of course Groce is going to look terrible. It was probably all but guaranteed when Thorne went down that we'd be missing the tournament for 3 straight years, which is not a good look for anybody.

However, when you look at the context of the situation, you can find reasons that Groce should get another year. For one, this team fully healthy would be a lock for the tournament, and in that scenario there would be zero coaching controversy. Secondly, the main reasons we have struggled the previous seasons have been the roster Weber left over and Groce's poor roster building. On the first point, the overall talent level of the roster has improved from where Weber left it, IMO. And, on the second point, Groce has added two guys who fill some of our deficiencies in the 16 class: a PG and an athletic wing to help our defense. Obviously, he still needs to continue developing Finke's defense or pick up another C to fill that hole, but the effort to improve roster building is clearly there.

The questions after all of that are these: is the bad injury luck this year worth excusing, and is Groce's adjustment in roster building too little too late to dig out of the hole he has dug himself? For me, it is worth one more year to find out. This is all assuming that this team continues to develop and does not implode and quit on the season.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Just don't see it that way. If this season tanks, which appears likely, and the following season tanks, there will be no great 2017 class. You cannot keep a guy that missed the tourney four years in a row with hopes the 2017 class turns it around. In most circles, he would be gone after this season. The AD situation may save him another year. He better hope TJL can come in and play well.

What about this year appears as a likely tank? Please show me another B1G team that can lose 3 starters (and their top two PGs) and still be a threat for the tourney. May e one out there - but its a stretch.

Unless this team quits and votes no confidence - I don't see him going anywhere after this season. We're forced into playing two freshman (1 RS) and over the last two games a walk-on with minutes...

 

[Deleted member 29907]

For those up in arms about our lack of pursuit on the offensive glass, here's a great link from today. Purveyors of "old school" basketball should hide under the covers.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/1...se-left-offensive-rebounds-cutting-room-floor



It's particularly relevant in our Thorne-less lineup. If you like Finke shooting threes (yes, please), we have to abandon the pursuit of offensive boards. Can't have both.

Correct - a few years back we could afford to have JEkey crash the boards and the provided some results. They key was NE could run the floor and get back - and had a particular knack for not rebounding.

 

[Cubby Blue]

The corollary to this is we should be running on those teams crashing the offensive boards (when we get the DRB of course).

While I preface this by saying "I am not a JT hater", the lack of a point guard presence does kind of hurt you in this area. I also think JT has been hurting since the finger injury. Kendrick has looked to run and has picked up our pace it would just help out if he wasn't the only one going 78 rpm.

 

[Epsilon]

For those up in arms about our lack of pursuit on the offensive glass, here's a great link from today. Purveyors of "old school" basketball should hide under the covers.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14505051/transition-defense-left-offensive-rebounds-cutting-room-floor



It's particularly relevant in our Thorne-less lineup. If you like Finke shooting threes (yes, please), we have to abandon the pursuit of offensive boards. Can't have both.

Okay, found the quote. The thing is, we are 294th in offensive rebounding (as of prior to the UM game). If everyone in the league is getting back quicker, then why are we that much worse at it?

Here is where I picked up that stat...

http://www.umhoops.com/2015/12/30/game-14-michigan-at-illinois-preview/

BTW, this article has some really interesting analysis on our game.

 

[84Illini]

Also, now we're going to start calling Groce lucky for getting Thorne? I'm guessing they'll be some caveat as to why Groce lucked into him coming here instead of UK or KU too?

Thorne wanted to play his last season of eligibility. He came to Illinois because he could walk directly from his position as a starter on a mediocre mid-major into a position as a starter at Illinois. There is absolutely no way he was going to start at Kentucky or Kansas.

He did not choose Illinois because our coaching or potential for success were greater than UK or KU.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

This is the best argument in his favor. He seems relatively open to trying new things, or at least letting personnel dictate strategy decisions, even if the results aren't always pretty. One of Weber's biggest faults was digging in and treating any deviation from his preferred approach as a total failure.

But still, the fact is, the pro-Groce argument right now is mostly built on spec. He might have built up enough personal goodwill that people (myself included) are willing to overlook what has been a very underwhelming on-the-court product. I think most people WANT him to succeed here, which may not count for a ton, but it's something. It's more than what Weber had in his final year and a half.

Just curious of posters' thoughts - where do we think the team would be if Thorne, Black and TA were on the court?

 

[FeelYourPaign]

Just curious of poster's thoughts - where do we think the team would be if Thorne, Black and TA were on the court?

I think we would be about an 11 win team, in the dance as an 8/9 seed. No analysis, just gut

 

[Bailey]

Okay, found the quote. The thing is, we are 294th in offensive rebounding (as of prior to the UM game). If everyone in the league is getting back quicker, then why are we that much worse at it?

Here is where I picked up that stat...

http://www.umhoops.com/2015/12/30/game-14-michigan-at-illinois-preview/

BTW, this article has some really interesting analysis on our game.

I don't think anybody has claimed this is a method universally adopted on the college level.

I'd like to see our metrics in terms of transition defense. You'd think they'd be very good.

 

[Epsilon]

Just curious of posters' thoughts - where do we think the team would be if Thorne, Black and TA were on the court?

I think we'd be a competent team, maybe ranked about 30-35ish. Tournament bound but not a deep run. Jmho.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Just curious of posters' thoughts - where do we think the team would be if Thorne, Black and TA were on the court?

If we had those three plus Nunn and Tate healthy all year, I'd put us at 12-3 right now. Probably finish up at 22-23 wins for the season and a 6 seed or so in the dance.