I would hope he would WANT to make some changes. Scapegoating any of the current assistants is probably unfair and would feel unfairer still to someone in Groce's position, but the promise of new blood and new ideas should appeal to any coach with a flexible-enough mind to be a long-term success.
John Groce at Illinois
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I would hope he would WANT to make some changes. Scapegoating any of the current assistants is probably unfair and would feel unfairer still to someone in Groce's position, but the promise of new blood and new ideas should appeal to any coach with a flexible-enough mind to be a long-term success.
This makes me wonder what the turnover rate is like for assistants at the blue blood schools. I know there are some wizards that read this thread. Does anybody know that sort of thing off-hand?
Blue blood schools lose assistants to head coaching jobs relatively regularly.
What else would she say? We just hired a new AD but someone else is going to make the call?
You're missing the point. The point is that the team lost games it probably wouldn't have had gill not been injured. Much like the current team wouldn't have five conference wins and 13 overall with a healthy roster.
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I probably should have used a hypothetical. What if that team had lost Gill or Bardo for the year before the season started. And one of Hamilton or Battle had ended up playing 100 minutes on a gimpy leg and then been shut down and the other played 8 games and then was lost for the year. And say Ervin Small had gotten blind drunk before the season and taken a bat to Lou's ride or something and been tossed off the team. And Henson had to play the season with Nick, Gill or Bardo, Smith, Kaufmann and Liberty (who I realize were both freshmen), Bowman etc. Might have done okay now with that team but back when players stayed 3 or 4 years on every team, they wouldn't have been very good.
Or just take any team from the past or present and take away the starting point guard before the season started, have the two bigs play hardly at all, have your 2nd best starter miss 8 games, the best incoming freshman not be able to practice and be in doubt right up to the start of the season. No team is going to look very good, regardless of the quality of those players, they're all essential parts of the team. No coach is going to look very good trying to scramble around playing freshmen who aren't ready for major minutes yet, back ups and walk-ons. Maybe Kentucky last year or UCLA back in the day, but not many others.
I agree with your point that injuries matter and I should have made that clear. I disagreed with using the 1988-89 Illini as an example supporting that position and further, I thought you selected stats that gave the wrong impression of what happened.
Obviously, the current team, even healthy, would be no match for the 1988-89 Illini even without Gill. I might even go so far as to say that I'd rather have Gill than Abrams, Black and Thorne put together.
Jmo.
Just for fun, let's say the hypothetical situation is that your returning senior center, Jens K. decides to forego his senior year and instead start his career as an engineer, iirc. And lets say Bardo, your point guard, gets hurt and you have to replace him with a junior, Larry Smith who according to wikipedia was
"a unanimous All-State pick while playing for Alton High School. He was named Co-News-Gazette Player of the Year with University of Illinois great Nick Anderson. Smith was also named MVP in the Illinois Basketball Coaches Association All-Star game. Smith was also named a Street and Smith All-American at the conclusion of his senior year at Alton."
Kind of nice to have backups like Hamilton and Smith instead of scrambling for a fifth year transfers at the last second. Haven't even got to Liberty, Kaufman and Small.
I think 1988-89 Illini would be better used as an example of how to prepare for the unexpected.
Sure it could be a good example of being prepared but again the overall point is that even the 88-89 team would have likely been greatly affected by all those injuries (or scenarios you played out) to the point of most likely not having nearly the season they did. You have to look at it in terms of relation to expectations for the given teams being discussed.
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Kind of nice to have Jimmy Collins as your lead recruiter.
And I do remember thinking during the off season that we were screwed when Jens announced he wasn't coming back.
Reason I used that team is it was the best Illini team I've seen in my 50+ years of being a fan, but an injury even threw them off for a bit. Probably not the best one to use in this context.
Not sure where we will be as a team next year, but I do recall hearing one of the announcers in the last two games - not sure if it was Morris or Crispin - say they fully believe Illinois is a top 25 team next year if they are healthy. I tend to say the same thing, and I would say that with or without Thorne. We lose only Lewis off this team and are better with Abrams replacing him. We add Lucas, who I think will be better backup than Tate. Hill and Nunn are the studs and back as seniors. Finke has a year under his belt. Morgan has shown he is decent in the middle. DJ Williams has come on. JCL is a budding superstar, Jordan should be fine. Plus we add Kipper to the mix. And, if Black is here. Will be contend for the National or even Big Ten title, don't think so, but I do believe we will be a solid team with so many seniors. You happen to add Thorne in there and this team gets very deep and could be better than what people want to believe.
With the exception of perhaps a few outliers, I think we all agree that injuries affect a team and have hurt us this year.
I support Groce coming back because it's the right decision now, but I'm still very skeptical of his coaching ability. Tons of evidence about his coaching ability has been posted in this thread and the evidence is not just from this year. For more evidence see the 2nd half of Wisky, 2nd half of IU, and 1st half of Minny.
I like Groce and really, really want him to succeed. The decision next year should be easy and five years is giving him a fair shot.
BTW, I fear he's making another huge recruiting mistake despite his progress on the 2017 class. If Tilmon falls through there is no fallback as far as I can see. He needs to find a 3 star guy with some size that he can develop. He should be recruiting this guy in addition to Tilmon since Tilmon is a 2 year guy anyway. Every big guy mentioned thus far - aside from Tilmon - is a high major recruit leaning to better programs.
On the one hand, yes, that's the one I was remembering! On the other hand, I just used the phrase "not too distant past" to describe an event from 36 years ago. Trippy yes, but not groovy.
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89illinigrad
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Theo John?
89illinigrad
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I agree, plus you also have to consider what the other BIG teams are losing: Indiana loses all world PG Yogi; Iowa loses 4 of 5 starters, including Uthoff; MSU loses their top 3 scorers, including Valentine; Purdue loses Hammonds and Davis; Michigan loses LaVert; etc...
Overall, I think Iowa and MSU will take a step back while they reload, while tOSU, Maryland and Wisconsin will move up, as they don't lose much (unless there are early exits for the NBA). I could see Illinois battling it out for 4-6th place in the BIG.
Yep and sorry I didn't make it clear that I agreed with your basic premise.
That team was loaded and withstood losing a pretty good 7' center and a player with a future 15 yr NBA career for twelve Big Ten games finishing second in a very tough Big Ten and making the final four. We have a long way to go.
Osu and Wisconsin are already in the top 5 (I think, I can't remember off hand where OSU is) so I'm not sure how much higher they can go haha.
I'm also not sure how much Iowa is reloading.
Lose 4/5 starters. Return Jok. Bringing in an ok 2016 class but could be a pretty rough year in Iowa City. Looking at their roster now, their tallest player next year (unless they bring in a 5th year) is only 6'9.
Sleepy Floyd
Kicking it with Fat Lever
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Everyone should listen to Brad Stevens on the vertical podcast you'll hear a lot of similarities in messaging to Groce.
considering the fact that they talked almost every day when Brad was at Butler ....that is not surprising. Good friends and similar backgrounds. Similar reliance on analytics and really similar approach to recruiting and player treatment. Thanks for the heads up ....looking forward
There are big time rumors of both Stone and Trimble moving up, as in up to the NBA. If both declare and leave, Maryland will fall back a little. Don't hear the same thing for Hayes at Wisky.
Hayes' game seems to have slipped a little if anything.
BTW, Damonte's commitment sealed the deal for JG's return next year, IMO. I thought he'd be back next year regardless, but landing HRF's son was the coup de gras. The needle is beginning to point up again. If LB and/or MT (doubting the latter) returns next year, good times are coming, barring another spate of injuries, of course.
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