ChiCityHoops34
- DeKalb IL
Easily.
Chicago Cubs 2016 Season
- Status
Easily.
Like not right now.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
Fowler has a mutual option for next year. If he keeps his season up, he won't be accepting the option and someone will give him a multiyear deal.
If Trout dies in a car accident tomorrow, he is a no-doubt about it first ballot hall of famer. If he sharply declines into mediocrity for several years and then fades out of baseball, maybe you're right. Perception is funny that way.
False. He hasn't been in the game long enough to merit HoF status. If he keeps going as he is, he will be a no-doubter.
There, thankfully, isn't a comparable case to a player like Trout losing his life or otherwise his ability to play baseball suddenly at a young age. But if it happened, he would be remembered as the greatest player of his era and get in easily. He would be a legendary figure, like a Gale Sayers perhaps.
For the record, there are several Hall of Famers with a lower career WAR than Trout's current total (Hack Wilson, Bill Mazeroski and Pie Traynor, to name a few), and Baseball-Reference has a stat called "MVP shares" using MVP voting to calculate the players with the most career "shares" of the MVP vote. The only non HoFers ahead of Trout are Miguel Cabrera who is easily in, ARod, Pete Rose, and Dave Parker who Trout will comfortably pass if he finishes this season the way he's started it.
It's true, Trout only has four full MLB seasons. But they are the most accomplished first four seasons in MLB history, with no one else even close to close. He's the player of this decade, already.
So he's played 4 seasons and he's already a peer of Williams and Ruth?
No, he's a peer of Mazeroski and Wilson.
The Hall of Fame bar is nowhere even close to the handful of greatest players of all time.
Trout has a chance to get among the Mays' and Mantle's and Aaron's, but that's not for several years yet.
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have something to say about that.
I think we've seen Trout's ceiling, and we haven't seen the other twos ceiling yet.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
That's not really how it works, although thankfully, as S&C pointed out, we haven't had any cases that would fully put that to the test.
5-0 vs. the Pirates this season. Lester looking for the sweep tomorrow!
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Addie Joss was elected after playing 9 years before he died. Of course, he played in the '00s and was elected in the '70s...
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
I shudder to give the BBWAA the benefit of the doubt, but are you saying they'd hold the line if Mike Trout suffered some catastrophic injury or died tomorrow?
I don't know about first ballot right now. There aren't really any comparables to form any basis to predict what the Hall would do.
What we do know is that the list of players who have started their career like Trout is short. The list of players who have started their career like Trout and then didn't go on to be an upper tier Hall of Famer is minuscule.
Vada Pinson started like gangbusters and a leg injury robbed him of his prime years. Cesar Cedeno went into immediate decline upon turning 30, but he was a different kind of player - more value from his defense and speed, with his decline mirroring a lot of middle infielders like Jim Fregosi and Garry Templeton.
People my age might suggest Darryl Strawberry or Eric Davis, but neither of those guys were anywhere near as good as Trout is at age 24.
Point is, while he might not be a HoFer yet, there has not been a more sure bet at the age of 24 in a few generations. The dude IS Mickey Mantle.
What we do know is that the list of players who have started their career like Trout is short. The list of players who have started their career like Trout and then didn't go on to be an upper tier Hall of Famer is minuscule.
Vada Pinson started like gangbusters and a leg injury robbed him of his prime years. Cesar Cedeno went into immediate decline upon turning 30, but he was a different kind of player - more value from his defense and speed, with his decline mirroring a lot of middle infielders like Jim Fregosi and Garry Templeton.
People my age might suggest Darryl Strawberry or Eric Davis, but neither of those guys were anywhere near as good as Trout is at age 24.
Point is, while he might not be a HoFer yet, there has not been a more sure bet at the age of 24 in a few generations. The dude IS Mickey Mantle.
So I've shown you the rules of 10 years MLB level and you think a guy who has played 4 years is going to get in?
Serious Late
- Peoria via Denver via Ann Arbor via Albuquerque vi
I keep thinking of Griffey as a comparison for the sake of this conversation. Unparalleled talent during the first half of his career, injuries stole much of the second half of his career. At the end of the day, he is the all time leading vote getter (% wise) for the HOF.
I don't know what it would take to make Trout fall from where he is now to not making the Hall of Fame, but the odds are incredibly minuscule. The Hall has also clearly shown a willingness to consider prime years vs. longevity of performance and Trout has done it enough years already to easily be in that conversation. If Mike Trout said today, enough is enough, would he make the Hall? I think so, but an argument could be made against it based on the fact that he purely quit as opposed to some tragic accident. If his career ended right now for reasons not in his control, book it, HOF for sure, they would make an exception for him no doubt about it.
Since Trout is not about to quit for no reason and walk away, I sure don't think it is hyperbole to call him a Hall of Famer right now.
Also, remember in a hypothetical trade for Trout, you're talking about his 25-28 years. This wouldn't be getting a 30 year old who will be great for the first couple years and then decline quickly after that. This would be near guaranteed Hall-worthy performance for four years.
So, even if Trout does end up being one of those guys like Pinson or Griffey or Andruw Jones, who goes into steep decline once he hits 30 or 31 (I don't think he will), for the purposes of his current contract, that's irrelevant.
So, even if Trout does end up being one of those guys like Pinson or Griffey or Andruw Jones, who goes into steep decline once he hits 30 or 31 (I don't think he will), for the purposes of his current contract, that's irrelevant.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
There's not a lot of ambiguity in what I posted. If something happened tomorrow that kept Mike Trout from ever playing again, do you think he'd get into the HOF, or that that the BBWAA would make an exception to the rule?
To follow up on Serious Late's post, sure this is an extreme hypothetical, but only slightly less extreme than the hypothetical dumpster fire Trout would have to be for the next six years to totally negate his first four, which is implied in the "nuh-uh, hasn't been long enough" argument.
I've been clear as a bell this entire discussion. Trout has only played 4 years. As outstanding as Trout is, it would be a disservice to the HoF guys with long, excellent careers to place a player in the Hall based upon future calculations of what would have likely happened.
I know if I were the Angels' GM, I would make damn sure I didn't go down in history as the guy who traded Mike Trout.
If he were in the last year of his contract and he and his agent were making it clear that he wasn't going to re-sign? Sure. I'd look for a deadline deal.
But right now, as dire as the Angels' situation may look right now, you've got four years to put a team around him. Look what Theo and co did in 4 years and they didn't have a player anywhere near Trout's caliber to start with.
If he were in the last year of his contract and he and his agent were making it clear that he wasn't going to re-sign? Sure. I'd look for a deadline deal.
But right now, as dire as the Angels' situation may look right now, you've got four years to put a team around him. Look what Theo and co did in 4 years and they didn't have a player anywhere near Trout's caliber to start with.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
Joe Nathan. I'll hang up and listen.
Eh. Why not? If he's got any magic left in that arm he'd be well worth it. He won't pitch in the Majors until he show that he's healthy.
He was and All-Star and posted a 3.2 WAR as recently as 2013. On the other hand, he's only 14 months younger than me.
- Status