Illini Basketball 2016-2017

[Newman]

Have you learned nothing about Tom Izzo?

It's funny, if our recruiting class in 2017 was anything like MSU's 2016 recruiting class, we would have some Illinois fans talking about us being NCAA title contenders in 2018.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

It's funny, if our recruiting class in 2017 was anything like MSU's 2016 recruiting class, we would have some Illinois fans talking about us being NCAA title contenders in 2018.

That becomes less funny every year, but you're absolutely right.

 

[Gillini]

Here is last year's Athlon predictions, and actual finish in the B1G.

Athlon 2015-16 predictions:

1. Maryland
2. Michigan State
3. Purdue
4. Indiana
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Ohio State
9. Northwestern
10. Illinois
11. Penn State
12 Minnesota
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Actual B1G 2015-16 Standings:

1. Indiana
2. Michigan State
3. Purdue
4. Maryland
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Ohio State
8. Michigan
9. Northwestern
10. Penn State
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Minnesota
14. Rutgers

Overall, they did pretty well. Hard to predict the exact order exactly, but they did well predicting all tiers, teams 1-4 correctly (top 4 teams), 5-8 correctly (next 4), and 9-14 (last six).

I hate to say it, but pretty much the entire media picked us between 8th and 11th last year and that was before all of our injuries. I see a lot of optimism here and I like that but I cannot see this team finishing better than 8th this year. I hope I am wrong because these bottom half finishes are destroying my favorite time of the year, CBB season.

 

[BananaShampoo]

IF Abrams stays healthy this season (and that's a big if), I just don't see us finishing any lower than 6th in the B1G this season. We're too deep at every other position besides PG for us to be worse than that and will have two probable superstars on our team (Malcolm and JCL) and a nice, deep front court.

 

[7yearillini]

And people here laugh at the fans of the SLU's and NU's of the world.

 

[Calvin]

I hate to say it, but pretty much the entire media picked us between 8th and 11th last year and that was before all of our injuries. I see a lot of optimism here and I like that but I cannot see this team finishing better than 8th this year. I hope I am wrong because these bottom half finishes are destroying my favorite time of the year, CBB season.

I hate to agree, but yeah, I feel similarly. I'll go a spot higher than that --I think we can make the dance and 7th. I think we'll have some nice pieces, but to get to that first tier, or close to it, I think we need a bit more of everything, and especially better PG play.

 

[RichBradIllini]

I'll take a stab at this. Had to add a couple of bold predictions, hopefully Illinois getting 6th isn't one of them.

1. Michigan State
2. Wisconsin
3. Purdue
4. Indiana
5. Maryland
6. Illinois
7. Michigan
8. Ohio State
9. Penn State
10. Northwestern
11. Iowa
12. Rutgers
13. Nebraska
14. Minny

I hate to say it but I put IU at #1 and then drop MSU to 3 or 4

 

[Epsilon]

I hate to agree, but yeah, I feel similarly. I'll go a spot higher than that --I think we can make the dance and 7th. I think we'll have some nice pieces, but to get to that first tier, or close to it, I think we need a bit more of everything, and especially better PG play.

I have to wonder to what extent these rankings take coaching into account. I think personnel-wise we'll be better on paper - a lot better if everyone stays healthy, but I wonder what these guys think of our coaching staff and ability to make good in-game adjustments and whatnot...

 

[Adnarel]

Groce & co. are capable of great game plans (see http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap?gameId=400839260), but have also laid a few eggs as well. I can understand a certain trepidation on the part of the talking heads. And fans, for that matter.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Not many are going to pick Illinois in the upper half of the league until they are given reason to do so. We've been absent from that section of the standings for a while now and we're not bringing in any type of program changing recruits this year. We do get a bunch of guys back from injury, but those kind of things are below the radar type events and none of them have proven to be all-B1G level guys. I do think the ceiling for this team is higher, in the 5-6 range, but it'll have to be a surprising season compared to the consensus expectations.

 

[FatGreg]

Good news, everyone: I just got back from the future. We're going to win the Big Ten this year. You heard it here first.

 

[TCTORNADO]

I have to wonder to what extent these rankings take coaching into account. I think personnel-wise we'll be better on paper - a lot better if everyone stays healthy, but I wonder what these guys think of our coaching staff and ability to make good in-game adjustments and whatnot...

Outside of this board, I think the overall perception of Groce's coaching ability is lower half of the B1G. That doesn't help when it comes to rankings.

 

[Adnarel]

Outside of this board, I think the overall perception of Groce's coaching ability is lower half of the B1G.

I humbly beg your pardon for splitting hairs like this, but I'm pretty sure that's the greater perception of Groce inside this board, too. =P

 

[Obelix]

Not many are going to pick Illinois in the upper half of the league until they are given reason to do so. We've been absent from that section of the standings for a while now and we're not bringing in any type of program changing recruits this year. We do get a bunch of guys back from injury, but those kind of things are below the radar type events and none of them have proven to be all-B1G level guys. I do think the ceiling for this team is higher, in the 5-6 range, but it'll have to be a surprising season compared to the consensus expectations.

That's exactly it. Furthermore, I would add that even those who are familiar with the returns/injuries see much uncertainty with the players returning from injury. It is not a binary decision (healthy/not healthy) but more an uncertain range of performance that can vary widely when these players return to action (e.g., Abrams, Thorne, TJL, Black, etc.).

 

[Combo]

I hate to say it, but pretty much the entire media picked us between 8th and 11th last year and that was before all of our injuries. I see a lot of optimism here and I like that but I cannot see this team finishing better than 8th this year. I hope I am wrong because these bottom half finishes are destroying my favorite time of the year, CBB season.

If we get decent play from one of the PGs (most likely Tracy) AND if we stay relatively healthy, I think 8th or better is doable. If healthy, we're pretty strong at the 2-5 positions. But you need competent PG play to make it function.

 

[alaskaillini]

Not many are going to pick Illinois in the upper half of the league until they are given reason to do so. We've been absent from that section of the standings for a while now and we're not bringing in any type of program changing recruits this year.

We were in the top half in 2014-15 - tied for 7th.

 

[geneseo]

Right, since you expanded the conversation from my original point about last year, of course there are many factors. But specific to last season, personnel was probably 99% of the reason, IMO. And to my point, it shows up in the defense rankings. For the first 3 seasons, Groce's teams were all in the top 50 of Kenpom's defense rankings. Then last year they are suddenly terrible. I don't think the system changed and DR% is a big factor in having a good defense.

I believe I was the one who started the discussion, the issue being whether or not the system is a contributing factor to rebounding performance. I think a longer term view is helpful. That's my opinion. If you want to explain why you think you have the authority to limit the original question and further, why looking at a shorter period of time versus a longer period of time is better when discussing a system, I'd be interested to hear your reasoning.

Ah, so this is just another Groce rant? OK. I will agree that overall his recruiting and ability to build a roster has been disappointing. I do think however that his problems have been much more of the offensive end of the court vs defense.

No, this isn't a Groce rant. I think this is where you started your rant.

I am wondering if Groce is making a tactical decision to emphasize field goal defense at the expense of rebounding. For example, it seems to me that Egwu spent more time defending perimeter shooters than most centers.

I think field goal defense is also critical to the success of the team. After all John Wooden named it as one of the three most important stats along with turnovers and rebounds.

If Groce is making that decision, I can respect that. It's his decision as head coach. I was wanting to discuss that... is he making that decision and is it a good one.

Well, we also don't have any evidence that he's been unsuccessful either. And we do know that most freshmen struggle with foul issues their first season, the majority of them outgrow it. Let's wait and see, shall we?

I'm not sure what you mean with "Well, we also don't have any evidence that he's been unsuccessful either." Seems to me all the evidence points to a problem. Last I heard Black was dealing with the law. I have no idea what your talking about.

I have hope that Black straightens out. I got the impression that he took responsibility for his actions and is determined to improve his behavior. i am just reading newspaper accounts though. I also recognize that I tend to be a bit on the optimistic side when it comes to the Illini.

Pet peeve, but I hate the "I hope I'm wrong" disclaimer so many use when they criticize things. If you're taking a stance, take it. Own it. Don't be a wimp and try to play both sides.

Well, now you're in high gear on your rant. You made a stink over a pet peeve, a minor annoyance by definition. You can own that.

Calling me names? Geesh!

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Kool-Aid flows deep with this one.....Positive thoughts, hurt will not.

Thanks... thought I would pull the positive thoughts play on this one. Collectively if the entire board would pull in the same direction, I believe we can influence the outcome. The alternate universe I pick has a us performing well. That, plus I think TA could have swung 3-4 games last year for us. Still not a forth place finish, but still without our bigs. We may not be alone in 4th, but I think we can get there this year.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

I humbly beg your pardon for splitting hairs like this, but I'm pretty sure that's the greater perception of Groce inside this board, too. =P

I'm withholding judgement until he has a stable team and has had the time to get the recruits (which is happening). A good point guard in college is so critical to the play of the team, its a tough judgement until then. While I've been frustrated with his offense, sometimes I am not sure if they are just not running what they are supposed to, or its not an effective offense. Unfortunately, we've been so thin, its hard to bench someone not following the plan...

 

[TCTORNADO]

Happy Birthday--John Groce.:thumb:

 

[ejam21]

Have you learned nothing about Tom Izzo?

Well I tihnk the guy has a point...While izzo may end up having hte best team in march often....

He hasnt finished first in the b10 since 2012.....and i wouldn't bet that the year he loses such a great core of players is the year he breaks that streak.

 

[Calvin]

Outside of this board, I think the overall perception of Groce's coaching ability is lower half of the B1G. That doesn't help when it comes to rankings.

Yup. And personally, I can remember a lot of times I felt we under-performed, and not very many where we over-performed. There were some real stinkers in there where I thought Groce would struggle to get players prepared, only to see that forecast come true. I love teams that play with fire to the final horn, and I don't feel like I've seen much of that in the past 3 years. Watching Kruger or Izzo or some of the other teams that play with urgency makes me long for a team like that.

 

[Captain Bubbles]

I was on a radio show as a guest a couple weeks ago, talking about Illinois and Big Ten basketball. IF Illinois is healthy, they are a NCAA Tournament team.

I mentioned during the show, I think Wisconsin is the team to beat this year in the Big Ten. A team that did not lose anyone to graduation, and was knocking on the door of a Final Four appearance...they are going to be tough. Let's also not forget the player that red-shirted in Pretzl. I think he will be a thorn in opponents' sides.

 

[Deleted member 8632]

I was on a radio show as a guest a couple weeks ago, talking about Illinois and Big Ten basketball. IF Illinois is healthy, they are a NCAA Tournament team.

I mentioned during the show, I think Wisconsin is the team to beat this year in the Big Ten. A team that did not lose anyone to graduation, and was knocking on the door of a Final Four appearance...they are going to be tough. Let's also not forget the player that red-shirted in Pretzl. I think he will be a thorn in opponents' sides.

We should have a thorne in our opponents' sides as well

 

[LibertyIllini]

I was on a radio show as a guest a couple weeks ago, talking about Illinois and Big Ten basketball. IF Illinois is healthy, they are a NCAA Tournament team.

I mentioned during the show, I think Wisconsin is the team to beat this year in the Big Ten. A team that did not lose anyone to graduation, and was knocking on the door of a Final Four appearance...they are going to be tough. Let's also not forget the player that red-shirted in Pretzl. I think he will be a thorn in opponents' sides.

As of today, Pritzl struggles mightily on defense. Taking this straight from a horse's mouth in the great state of Wisconsin. Yes, Wisconsin will be very good. Yes, people are overlooking them. But, apparently Pritzl has much to learn on the defensive end.