2017 Coaching Carousel

[Tevo]

People need to snap out of it a bit on this recruiting class. It's good, but it's not like we have the Fab Five coming in. Hardly breaking news, but our Chronic Bridesmaid Syndrome in basketball recruiting convinces people that not only will they all instantly disappear, but that we'all also never get recruits of this caliber again. That's baseless.

Keeping Groce for the sake of this class is total insanity.

And didn't at least one of our recruits make a point of saying he was committing to the University, as opposed to a coach? All of those guys would at least wait to see who we hire (which they'd sort of have to do, before we release anyone from LOIs), and really have incentive to give the new guy a chance, to avoid life upheaval and having to sit out.

 

[ChiefIllini]

And didn't at least one of our recruits make a point of saying he was committing to the University, as opposed to a coach? All of those guys would at least wait to see who we hire (which they'd sort of have to do, before we release anyone from LOIs), and really have incentive to give the new guy a chance, to avoid life upheaval and having to sit out.

I think the odds are in favor of losing at least one player if we hire someone new, whether it be a guy already on the roster (which probably happens even if Groce stays) or we release a recruit from his LOI. Just kinda how new coaches are. Theres obviously still a decent chance we retain everyone, but it would make sense that at least one guy on the roster would be upset about canning JG and want to leave.

Also, if a player is released from his LOI, he has to sit out a year? And on a similar note, a player must sit out if they transfer, even if there is a coaching change correct?

 

[Illinoy]

I think the odds are in favor of losing at least one player if we hire someone new, whether it be a guy already on the roster (which probably happens even if Groce stays) or we release a recruit from his LOI. Just kinda how new coaches are. Theres obviously still a decent chance we retain everyone, but it would make sense that at least one guy on the roster would be upset about canning JG and want to leave.

Also, if a player is released from his LOI, he has to sit out a year? And on a similar note, a player must sit out if they transfer, even if there is a coaching change correct?

No they're eligible immediately. You never have to sit out unless you enroll early or something of that nature like Kipper Nichols.

 

[Obelix]

...to avoid life upheaval and having to sit out.

Never really happens, if they request out of their NLI, UI will release them as they should.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Also, if a player is released from his LOI, he has to sit out a year?

No, that's what the release is for. Without it, they would have to sit a year.

And on a similar note, a player must sit out if they transfer, even if there is a coaching change correct?

Unless there are some unusual extenuating circumstances, yes.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

And didn't at least one of our recruits make a point of saying he was committing to the University, as opposed to a coach? All of those guys would at least wait to see who we hire (which they'd sort of have to do, before we release anyone from LOIs), and really have incentive to give the new guy a chance, to avoid life upheaval and having to sit out.

I would basically guarantee Pickett and DaMonte stay.

Frazier is tricky because he's from so far away, but think about it this way: at which point is he more likely to abandon Illinois, when he's committed and excited to be going there and beginning his college experience, or after the natural life and basketball struggles as a freshman, 1000 miles from home capped off by his coach getting fired? That's one of many reasons the "magic trap" plan is too clever by half.

Who the heck knows with Tilmon. The question of whether he even qualifies remains open, I hate to remind you.

As a general matter, and this is admittedly based on anecdotal evidence, recruiting classes seem to hold up better when a coach gets fired as opposed to leaving for a better job. Which makes a certain amount of sense in a vacuum, as the program situation becomes "better" as opposed to worse. Plus, the coach usually doesn't set up shop somewhere where he can bring along his recruits in a firing scenario.

 

[Obelix]

I would basically guarantee...

I think most people start to wonder if there is anything that you can't guarantee at this point.

 

[Vermilion Slim]

As it seems like Cuonzo, Archie, Gregg, and Ben are the consistent top 4 for a lot of people, I thought I'd start doing some comparisons just to have the data out their as the season moves forward. (Still hoping we go on a run and this is all irrelevant.)

First up, I looked at the RPI and Ken Pom for the 4 coaches over the last 5 years. This is certainly not the best indicator as conf. strength and other factors play a big role (and Cuonzo changed jobs), but still one piece of the puzzle to look at.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I think most people start to wonder if there is anything that you can't guarantee at this point.

A general comfort with uncertainty is good. There are no guarantees. But recognizing the relative likelihoods of different events is key to analyzing things.

 

[FiveStar]

As it seems like Cuonzo, Archie, Gregg, and Ben are the consistent top 4 for a lot of people, I thought I'd start doing some comparisons just to have the data out their as the season moves forward. (Still hoping we go on a run and this is all irrelevant.)

First up, I looked at the RPI and Ken Pom for the 4 coaches over the last 5 years. This is certainly not the best indicator as conf. strength and other factors play a big role (and Cuonzo changed jobs), but still one piece of the puzzle to look at.

I think some good indicators of coaching ability are: conference record (would indicate required adjustments to be successful vs teams familiar with your play), tourneys made and W/L (obvious), and finally roster makeup in terms of where players are from. Maybe one of them recruits Illinois exceptionally well and it would be interesting to see. I'm not saying you have do it, cause I sure wouldn't. But if you're so inclined...

 

[Tevo]

I think the odds are in favor of losing at least one player if we hire someone new, whether it be a guy already on the roster (which probably happens even if Groce stays) or we release a recruit from his LOI. Just kinda how new coaches are. Theres obviously still a decent chance we retain everyone, but it would make sense that at least one guy on the roster would be upset about canning JG and want to leave.

Also, if a player is released from his LOI, he has to sit out a year? And on a similar note, a player must sit out if they transfer, even if there is a coaching change correct?

Good point, I wasn't thinking clearly on that. Unless they enrolled, they're free to play right away.

 

[BananaShampoo]

And didn't at least one of our recruits make a point of saying he was committing to the University, as opposed to a coach? All of those guys would at least wait to see who we hire (which they'd sort of have to do, before we release anyone from LOIs), and really have incentive to give the new guy a chance, to avoid life upheaval and having to sit out.

It was Damonte who said that, and I believe him. I agree that he and Pickett are most likely to stay committed even with a new coach. I think Tilmon would be gone unless Walker were retained, and I'm not sure how likely that is with a new coach (although Wayne McClain was so who knows?). Frazier I think would look elsewhere, although we were his best offer from a b-ball perspective so if a new coach pitched him to stay and built a good relationship we might be able to keep him on board. I think that since he's exploded, though, that other schools might try to poach him.

So I'm guess a ballpark likelihood of staying with a new coach as:

Damonte - 90%
Pickett - 80%
Frazier - 50%
Tilmon - 20% (80% if Walker stays)

There's also a good chance a new coach brings in one or two of his own recruits who he's built relationships with.

 

[Vermilion Slim]

I think some good indicators of coaching ability are: conference record (would indicate required adjustments to be successful vs teams familiar with your play), tourneys made and W/L (obvious), and finally roster makeup in terms of where players are from. Maybe one of them recruits Illinois exceptionally well and it would be interesting to see. I'm not saying you have do it, cause I sure wouldn't. But if you're so inclined...

Ask and you shall receive:

Here is each coach's conference ranking, tournament success, and then the number of players on their current roster from Illinois and from their home state.

 

[BananaShampoo]

I think some good indicators of coaching ability are: conference record (would indicate required adjustments to be successful vs teams familiar with your play), tourneys made and W/L (obvious), and finally roster makeup in terms of where players are from. Maybe one of them recruits Illinois exceptionally well and it would be interesting to see. I'm not saying you have do it, cause I sure wouldn't. But if you're so inclined...

I agree with those, and I would also add:

- Recruiting rankings compared to conference average (or average recruiting ranking within conference)
- Conference tourney finish
- Pre-season ranking or expected conference finish versus actual final season ranking or conference finish (let's you know if they outperformed or underperformed versus expectations)

 

[Old Number 51]

To me the home run is Archie Miller. Witman seems like he can do some good negotiating so I feel like that could happen.

Say we do get Miller.... Does our awesome 2017 class stay committed??

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

I think Tilmon would be gone unless Walker were retained, and I'm not sure how likely that is with a new coach (although Wayne McClain was so who knows?).

McClain's boss wasn't fired, so that made it possible for him to stay. Lovie did retain some assistants from Cubit's staff, but that was a pretty unusual situation to say the least.

 

[BananaShampoo]

Ask and you shall receive:

Here is each coach's conference ranking, tournament success, and then the number of players on their current roster from Illinois and from their home state.

Marshall clearly stands out among all the others. Sadly our chance of getting him is small, unless JW just backs up a dump truck full of money. Even then I don't know that he'd come here. He and his wife seem pretty happy in Wichita.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Say we do get Miller.... Does our awesome 2017 class stay committed??

50/50 chance I'd say. Like others have pointed out Demonte and Javon are pretty much locks. The other two are really hard to get a good read on what they'd do. I'd bet we'd have more than a 50% shot at keeping JT. Coach loyalty was what he always said was a huge selling point, but he seems like a good, genuine kid, so maybe he's signing of his LOI signaled a commitment purely to the university, as opposed to the coaching staff.

 

[FiveStar]

Ask and you shall receive:

Here is each coach's conference ranking, tournament success, and then the number of players on their current roster from Illinois and from their home state.

You are the man!

 

[Vermilion Slim]

I agree with those, and I would also add:

- Recruiting rankings compared to conference average (or average recruiting ranking within conference)
- Conference tourney finish
- Pre-season ranking or expected conference finish versus actual final season ranking or conference finish (let's you know if they outperformed or underperformed versus expectations)

I was able to take care of two of these. The attached table has their pre-season prediction, post-season rank, and the difference between the two for each of the past 5 years. I also totaled their conf. tournament W-L record for the same period of time. (The recruiting stuff will take longer and may not be something I do).

Hopefully all this becomes more and more unneeded as we go on a winning streak and Groce secures his long-term future at Illinois.

 

[BananaShampoo]

I was able to take care of two of these. The attached table has their pre-season prediction, post-season rank, and the difference between the two for each of the past 5 years. I also totaled their conf. tournament W-L record for the same period of time. (The recruiting stuff will take longer and may not be something I do).

Hopefully all this becomes more and more unneeded as we go on a winning streak and Groce secures his long-term future at Illinois.

Sweet. You da man! :thumb:

 

[Vermilion Slim]

I agree with those, and I would also add:

- Recruiting rankings compared to conference average (or average recruiting ranking within conference)
- Conference tourney finish
- Pre-season ranking or expected conference finish versus actual final season ranking or conference finish (let's you know if they outperformed or underperformed versus expectations)

Wasn't as tough to find recruiting data as I thought. The attached table summarizes national recruiting rank and conference recruiting rank for the 4 coaches. (I used 247sports database and I have no idea how that stacks up against other recruiting sources)

 

[ChiefIllini]

Wasn't as tough to find recruiting data as I thought. The attached table summarizes national recruiting rank and conference recruiting rank for the 4 coaches. (I used 247sports database and I have no idea how that stacks up against other recruiting sources)

Great info, you've really hit the inner data lover in me with these posts! Appreciate it!

A little counterpoint though, basketball recruiting is a little unique for those schools that dont lose kids after fresh/soph year. Take for example our 2013, 2014, and 2015 classes. Our inter conference rankings were 3-8-2. But our 2014 class wasn't 'bad'... meaning we got a top 50ish recruit in leron and finke (who was ranked poorly but still, leron was a high recruit). Rankings on 247 tend to favor larger classes, and if you get one or two good recruitts a team with 4 or 5 mediorce ones could outscore you.

I'd like to see total combined rankings each year of all players on the team. Meaning the lower your combined ranking is, the better ranked your team is. Then this would be compared nationally and interconference. I know thats a lot of work and I doubt anyone has that kinda of time on their hand but I think that would give a better representation of skill level on a team compared to others in the conference.

 

[Vermilion Slim]

Great info, you've really hit the inner data lover in me with these posts! Appreciate it!

A little counterpoint though, basketball recruiting is a little unique for those schools that dont lose kids after fresh/soph year. Take for example our 2013, 2014, and 2015 classes. Our inter conference rankings were 3-8-2. But our 2014 class wasn't 'bad'... meaning we got a top 50ish recruit in leron and finke (who was ranked poorly but still, leron was a high recruit). Rankings on 247 tend to favor larger classes, and if you get one or two good recruitts a team with 4 or 5 mediorce ones could outscore you.

I'd like to see total combined rankings each year of all players on the team. Meaning the lower your combined ranking is, the better ranked your team is. Then this would be compared nationally and interconference. I know thats a lot of work and I doubt anyone has that kinda of time on their hand but I think that would give a better representation of skill level on a team compared to others in the conference.

I've attempted to do that (again using the 247 player rankings) by taking the average of the recruit ranking for each team in each year and then also the average of all recruits for the five year period.

The biggest problem with this (as noted in the attached table) is that there are a lot of players at smaller schools who just aren't ranked or who come from the prep or 2-year college route. That being said, it still provides another data point that, when combined with the overall rankings, starts to paint a general picture.

 

[OrangeSoda]

Threads like this make me embarrassed to be an Illini fan...


we are only EIGHT games into the season. Lord almighty.