Team stays healthy, we are dancing. The tolerance on the W/L side will favor us in the conference.
Illini Basketball 2016-2017
Theres a good chance this good happen. Two games stand out to me that I think we take loses in. @NW and either OSU or Mich at home. NW has a legitimate chance of being a tourney team. Just think we are gonna drop one to them, though I'd rather win at NW. Also, I can't see us beating both OSU and Mich at home without the Orange Krush being there. Though getting one I think is just as likely as losing both (which to me is sadly a positive). I agree we will drop a crappy game agianst somebody like PSU (like you've predicted) or maybe Nebraska.
I think right now, we are good for a lose or two in games we should win. That puts us at 9-9 in my book. That being said I think the most important aspect of our resume come March will be important games we need to win from here on out:
BYU (really rest of NC)
Marlyand (either @ or home)
OSU or Michigan
MSU/Purdue/Wisc (one win will do.)
Also I think our conference schedule lets us go into March with huge moment. I think if we can beat MSU and win games we should, that gives us at least a 7-1 record to end the regular season, hopefully win one or two in the tourney and its gonna be hard to leave us off. Thats a lot of wins late in the season which I believe I've heard is something the committee does take into account, and that will push us over the bubble (assuming our record is 20/21 wins, I think anymore we are locked in, any less we have no chance).
This team is going to have to start and end games. Recent collapses/getting off to rough starts, has haunted this program game to game. eliminate that and we can weather poor stretches in game. Consistency is something Groce's teams havent had. Need that too. Those two/three aspects are going to determine this teams schedule come March.
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Good point on us not being on the bubble. Didn't really think that all the way through.
12-6 being very optimistic is a fair point, but my question is where will all of our other losses come from. There are a few games in there that I can see being toss up games. We could lose to MSU, we could lose one of our games against NW, we could lose at home to Michigan, etc. As optimistic as 12-6 is, I don't see enough games that look like likely losses for a prediction like 7-11 or 8-10 to be a logical prediction. Also, I could see BYU as a tougher game, but like I said, if the staff doesn't have the team ready for that game, especially with NW playing a game before ours, then we have a serious problem. NW will be ready to go for that game. If they come out and win their game and then we lay an egg in ours, I'd say there is no coming back from that for the coaching staff.
I'm sure on other team's boards people aren't sold on Illinois and see a win when they play us.
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BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
I think you are a bit more optimistic than I am about some of those conference games. IF we can win out the non-con, I see us going more like 9-9 in conference, which would put us at 19 wins going into the BTT. I just don't think we'll have the consistency to win 12 B1G games. We'd HAVE to win one in the BTT, if not two, to be assured of getting into the tourney. If we could win 10 in the conference, which is doable considering the relative weakness of the B1G this year, I'd feel a whole lot better about things, though I'd still want a BTT win to be sure of getting in with a reasonable seed. Of course all of that falls to the wayside if we don't win out in the non-con.
IlliniInOK
- no longer in OK! Centralia, IL
My guess is we win out in the non-con, setting us up at 10-3 into the conference season. But then I would say we lose to IU, PU, Wisky, MSU, and OSU the only times we play them. I think we will beat Nebraska, Rutgers, and Minnesota in our only matchups with them. That puts us at 13-8 (though of course it won't happen in that order) before considering the double plays of the conference season.
I expect us to lose twice to Michigan and split the rest. I just think we've been too inconsistent so far this year. However, if we pull of a win in College Park, maybe we beat OSU and then Maryland at SFC. Maybe we beat NW, PSU or Iowa twice instead of dropping one. Maybe we pull out a miracle against MSU.
In the same vein, maybe NW, PSU, Maryland, or Iowa sweep us. Maybe we drop the Minnesota or Nebraska games. Maybe Corey Sanders scores 60 and Rutgers beats us in a 6-OT non-classic.
It just seems so unpredictable at this point.
I expect us to lose twice to Michigan and split the rest. I just think we've been too inconsistent so far this year. However, if we pull of a win in College Park, maybe we beat OSU and then Maryland at SFC. Maybe we beat NW, PSU or Iowa twice instead of dropping one. Maybe we pull out a miracle against MSU.
In the same vein, maybe NW, PSU, Maryland, or Iowa sweep us. Maybe we drop the Minnesota or Nebraska games. Maybe Corey Sanders scores 60 and Rutgers beats us in a 6-OT non-classic.
It just seems so unpredictable at this point.
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I've seen a couple 9-9 predictions with a win or two in the BTT. IMHO, there is virtually no way that gets us in the tourney with our conference schedule. Last year that would have been good for 9th with probably 7 teams from the B1G in the tourney.
At 9-9 we will not have any good wins or any good wins will be offset by bad losses. 10-8 will get us between 6th and 8th and firmly on the bubble, 11-7 5th or 6th and solidly in.
WVC will remind me that conference standings have no input into decision making by the committee. In an attempt to avoid that I am referencing conference standings purely as a reference point.
At 9-9 we will not have any good wins or any good wins will be offset by bad losses. 10-8 will get us between 6th and 8th and firmly on the bubble, 11-7 5th or 6th and solidly in.
WVC will remind me that conference standings have no input into decision making by the committee. In an attempt to avoid that I am referencing conference standings purely as a reference point.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
The big ten tournament could be huge too because at 9-9, we would likely play another Big ten bubble team, for example, Northwestern? Michigan? Those types of games late in the season tend to be play in games. For example, even though it wasn't in the BTT, Purdue two seasons ago. I think we will have a game like that down the stretch where it is a virtual play in game for both teams.
At 9-9 I don't think the big ten tournament will matter unless we get to the final game. That would probably give us 2 good wins, which might be enough if it is a relatively weak bubble.
I don't think winning out the non-conference is a given. Central Michigan is a tough mid major opponent, much like Winthrop. Hopefully the team will be more prepared this time. BYU has been pretty inconsistent but their offense is strong. It's certainly a game we could lose if our offense has an off night and can't keep up. The Missouri game scares me, because a loss would be horrible and it's always close when we play them. I think we should be favored in each of those 3 games, but I'd say there's a decent chance we drop one.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
Definitely not a given. Heck IUPUI isn't a given if they come out for nap time and let Combs pull a Keon Johnson on them.
illini80
- Forgottonia
I don't think 10-8 should be an unrealistic expectation in B10 play, but from what we have seen, there is no reason for any confidence in a prediction like that either. "Unbiased" sources have had us predicted significantly lower than that so maybe they are seeing what we often overlook.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
I think besides the top tier big ten teams, everyone has some holes that they are worried about. The middle of the Big 10 is truly a toss up. I like our experience, which is huge in conference play. Our offense is too stagnant right now, but when JCL starts hitting shots, it will look better I think. Defensively, we have made improvements, but we need to be consistent. The lack of a true shot blocker worries me. Hopefully Kipper helps with rebounding and some more athleticism, because we are probably the least athletic team in the big 10, especially when Tate is on the floor over Lucas.
Captain Bubbles
- Fairfield, IL
Reminder: In 12 days, Kipper Nichols will play his first Illini game.
Well see about the play part.
Joel Goodson
- ties will be resolved
Just wanted to point out that Leron seems to have put his tendency for profligate fouling behind him. Thank goodness.
His progression has been very good. Am thinking the redshirt year, while a bummer in a lot of ways, helped WRT maturity and comfort level. Man, that 15-18' is nearly automatic now. I'd rather not have him launching treys, but he's earned the right, I suppose.
His progression has been very good. Am thinking the redshirt year, while a bummer in a lot of ways, helped WRT maturity and comfort level. Man, that 15-18' is nearly automatic now. I'd rather not have him launching treys, but he's earned the right, I suppose.
I'm hoping JG doesn't use Nichols like he is using TJL and DJW.
He dangles them in front of us just long enough to get us excited, then yanks them away.
It's almost Christmas Charlie Brown!
)WiscIllini
- Madison, WI
I'm hoping JG doesn't use Nichols like he is using TJL and DJW.
He dangles them in front of us just long enough to get us excited, then yanks them away.
It's almost Christmas Charlie Brown!
As much as I want Lucas to play more, it's hard to complain about Tate playing over him in the last game when we won pretty easily and Jaylon looked better than Te'jon.
ILL in IA
- Iowa City
Just got my tickets for when the Orange and Blue make it out to Iowa City. Thought I would pass this funny note along. Iowa no longer allows for large group ticket purchases. Most I could get at 1 time was 8. It came with the note that if my card was detected purchasing another set of tickets over the 8 I already had, they would pull all tickets from me. From what I have been told this is the orange krush rule. Iowa has been embarrassed to many times by the take over.
I don't like him taking those shots, but if he does that add that as a weapon, he will be a tough match-up. That being said, I hate it less than Malcolm's 20 ft shots just inside the 3pt line.
Joel Goodson
- ties will be resolved
While I'm on the subject of progression, how bout JCL? Not settling for being one dimensional. Granted, just one game, but more of the same please. The way he's covered, he ought to be able to get past his man whenever he wants. Once the opps adjust, he'll have a lot more room to shoot. He also appears to be learning what to do with it when close to the basket, as opposed to getting stuffed more often than not. A work in progress, to be sure, yet encouraging.
Yes, it's all starting to come together. . .
Best player- Malcolm Hill
Most Valuable- Leron Black
Leron has slapped some grit into these boys. He's a fighter. We need this.
Best player- Malcolm Hill
Most Valuable- Leron Black
Leron has slapped some grit into these boys. He's a fighter. We need this.
Did he start last game? If so, I suspect his practicing has also picked up. Once his threes start dropping this offense will be hard to defend.
Yes. Lineup was Thorne, Black, Hill, JCL, Abrams.