2017 Coaching Carousel

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#1,051      
16-14 is worse than most other predictive models. I think it is safe to say the fanbase would be none too pleased to end there.

If Groce makes the tourney, even as a last 4 in, I think he stays regardless of outcome.

If we make the NIT I'd give him a 50/50 shot at staying (though I'd let him go because lets face it, this team has talent and experience, hard to imagine another coach doing less with this team)

If he misses the everything (i.e. 17 or less wins) I cant foresee him staying . Whitman's made his intentions clear and I doubt he'll save Groce for any reason--and I wouldn't want him too. If Whitman decides to keep him I think this thread is gonna explode, like most of the fan base. He seems in touch with this fact. Even if he doesn't have a Lovie-esque hire (almost 0 chance he does), its hard to imagine someone does worse than Groce here even if we lose JT and TF.

That being said I think they pull off a tourney bid. We have to avoid slumping. This team has showed offsensive ability that will keep them in the post season picture. Finding what works against each team, defending better, and getting our turnover numbers below double digits is a must. Hard tasks but all have been shown this year--to some extent.
 
#1,052      
I think the sit out year is a huge deterrent to legitimate NBA prospects. Very few of those caliber players transfer under any circumstances.

I interpret this to be referring to Tilmon. Tilmon is RSCI #25

Just at a glance at the class of 2014, #25 Shaqqan Aaron has transferred, #27 Kameron Chatman has transferred, #28 Isaac Copeland has transferred, and #22 Dwayne Morgan decided to transfer, took some visits, but ultimately decided to stay at UNLV.
 
#1,053      
I lol'd

For the record, I haven't given up on Groce just yet. But I am not liking what I'm seeing so far this season.

Signing Tom Crean's death warrant would change the tone.

As an Illini fan living in a sea of Hawkeyes who wants SO desperately to believe in the enormous potential of Illini athletics, I am so worthless in these discussions. I change my tune from game to game, almost entirely based on emotions. When the Illini got clobbered by Maryland, I found myself talking about how Groce was so far out of his league it wasn't even funny and how Illinois basketball could do so much better with a very talented AD in place (which I believe Whitman is, honestly) and that we needed to cut ties ASAP and start over. After they beat OSU, I found myself rationalizing how we really could make the Tournament and how the 2017 class could really, FINALLY usher in the era of successful Groce teams that we all believed were coming after his first year and first two recruiting go-arounds.

Honestly, I think deep down I can't bring myself to logically believe John Groce will ever get Illinois back to where it was from the early '80s all the way until the mid-2000s (yes, I use that long of a time frame because literally the only time we were consistently less than good - the '90s - was largely because of sanctions and even it produced a Big Ten title and a resurgence of the program as 2000 approached), and that should absolutely be the expectation. 2001-2006 or 1983-1989? Maybe not. But 2008-2016 has been nothing short of horrifically bad given where this program has been during the three-point era. With that said, I will keep supporting him as long as he is on our sidelines and not literally embarrassing us with every move ala Beckman. A win at Indiana would make ALL Illini fans feel great, including his biggest detractors, so let's just go do that! :thumb::shield:
 
#1,054      
If we make the NIT I'd give him a 50/50 shot at staying (though I'd let him go because lets face it, this team has talent and experience, hard to imagine another coach doing less with this team

Way too early for this call. Don't really want to go there but if you lose Groce, you're likely losing assistants, and you will definitely lose the best recruiting class we've had in some time.

If we had went to tourney once or twice the last few years, would you feel different? I thought we could have with Abrams. Its such a weird situation.
 
#1,055      

UofIChE06

Pittsburgh
I interpret this to be referring to Tilmon. Tilmon is RSCI #25

Just at a glance at the class of 2014, #25 Shaqqan Aaron has transferred, #27 Kameron Chatman has transferred, #28 Isaac Copeland has transferred, and #22 Dwayne Morgan decided to transfer, took some visits, but ultimately decided to stay at UNLV.

Shaqquan Aaron- forced out by Pitino very publicly and had surgery in sit out year anyway

Kameron Chatman - huge disappointment for UM and really has no NBA stock currently.

Isaac Copeland- pretty recent so the story really isn't out on him yet but he is in his third year and saw his time decrease sharply although injuries have been a part of that.
 
#1,056      
Way too early for this call. Don't really want to go there but if you lose Groce, you're likely losing assistants, and you will definitely lose the best recruiting class we've had in some time.

If we had went to tourney once or twice the last few years, would you feel different? I thought we could have with Abrams. Its such a weird situation.

Yeah, 2013/2014 teams had the chance to make it, and if either of them did, I dont think the sense of urgency I feel now would exist as heavily. But the fact is that he didn't and I think a performance indicator even more serious than missing/making the tourney that I'm starting to judge Groce on more and more is the fact he cant win with a team this talented and experienced. We have an average B1G PG in Abrams (maybe even above average), two top 40 soph's in JCL and Black, a first team all-B1G SF in Hill, and a more than serviceable two man platoon at the 5. Not even to mention a strech 4 who could be the 2nd/3rd best 3 pt shooter on the team and a deep bench. I can't imagine what more a team would need to at the bare minimum make a tourney appearance. Everyone but Abrams is technically Groce's guys, and they've all been here long enough to learn what he wants. We have on court leadership and scoring and heck even rebounding now. To me the weak link is the coach. So regardless of if he's made the tourney recently or not, he still should be judged by whats in the pantry now. And its full. Its up to the chef to make it work.
 
#1,057      
Shaqquan Aaron- forced out by Pitino very publicly and had surgery in sit out year anyway

Kameron Chatman - huge disappointment for UM and really has no NBA stock currently.

Isaac Copeland- pretty recent so the story really isn't out on him yet but he is in his third year and saw his time decrease sharply although injuries have been a part of that.

And it's impossible for any of these things to happen to Tilmon!

Since you mentioned Wiltjer I looked back at his class.

Wiltjer was #19. #22 Dorian Finney-Smith transferred. #28 Michael Gbinije transferred.

In 2012 #22 Devonte Pollard, #24 Tony Parker and #29 Danuel House transferred.

In 2013 #20 Austin Nichols transferred (and then got kicked off the second team and is transferring again), #25 Jermaine Lawrence transferred, #27 Keith Frazier transferred, #30 Kuran Iverson transferred.

You made the following statement

I think the sit out year is a huge deterrent to legitimate NBA prospects. Very few of those caliber players transfer under any circumstances.

To the extent that statement is directed at players in the talent range of Jeremiah Tilmon, that statement is undeniably incorrect.
 
#1,058      
As an Illini fan living in a sea of Hawkeyes who wants SO desperately to believe in the enormous potential of Illini athletics, I am so worthless in these discussions. I change my tune from game to game, almost entirely based on emotions.

Honestly, I think deep down I can't bring myself to logically believe John Groce will ever get Illinois back to where it was...

I think a lot of us are like this. I'm probably worse than you.

Theres still a chance he can. Though I dont think when he came in the chances were super high. Thomas' hiring of Beckman and Groce were similar in the since they were relatively unproven but had a good year. Difference is Groce is one of the most likeable coaches I've ever had on a time I root for. While Beckman was like a kid using an etch a sketch to draw up plays with gum stuck in his hair.

This game should give insight to the power of the seniors. IU is desperate. If we can have them play like that, we can control the game, which should mean we win. Cause them to foul and chuck up dumb shots. I dont think we win regardless but having a veteran team should keep this game within 10 by the end.

71-80 candy stripes. Here's to hoping im wrong.
 
#1,060      
Still have an opinion not shared by majority but still makes the most sense to me.

JG strengths are his recruiting, relationship to his players and good public presentation.

Weakness per this thread are X's and O's.

Believe it is much easier to cover his weakness with a good assistant than it is to find someone with his strengths in the other areas. Recruiting is not a one year project but building of relationships and starting over is not a one year project. In two years with a new coach, this thread would be repeated. IMO
 
#1,061      

whovous

Washington, DC
I think a lot of us are like this. I'm probably worse than you.

Yup, a whole lot of us. I want Groce to stay because I like him. That is the beginning and end of my argument. I will feel bad if he goes, but I cannot say the team will be worse off as a result.

Losing by less than ten this weekend would be a moral victory, for whatever moral victories count for in bracket matrices.
 
#1,062      
Still have an opinion not shared by majority but still makes the most sense to me.

JG strengths are his recruiting, relationship to his players and good public presentation.

Weakness per this thread are X's and O's.

Believe it is much easier to cover his weakness with a good assistant than it is to find someone with his strengths in the other areas. Recruiting is not a one year project but building of relationships and starting over is not a one year project. In two years with a new coach, this thread would be repeated. IMO

I'd argue finding assistants that are better recruiters than x's and o's guys is easier. I'd rather have a coaches coach and recruiting assistants then the other way around. I've though Groce should've fired an assistant or two for the past couple of years--scapegoats are always nice for coaches.
 
#1,064      
Still have an opinion not shared by majority but still makes the most sense to me.

JG strengths are his recruiting, relationship to his players and good public presentation.

Weakness per this thread are X's and O's.

Believe it is much easier to cover his weakness with a good assistant than it is to find someone with his strengths in the other areas. Recruiting is not a one year project but building of relationships and starting over is not a one year project. In two years with a new coach, this thread would be repeated. IMO

All of that would depend on which coach we hire.
 
#1,065      
If Groce makes the tourney, even as a last 4 in, I think he stays regardless of outcome.

This is going to sound odd, but if I were playing armchair AD, the reason I'd move on from Groce is because of how bad his teams are to watch. If we were winning ugly, I might feel differently, but I just don't feel like we come close to maximizing what we have. The mantra seems to be, well, we're not as good as we thought. I suppose that might be true, but for my 2 cents, I see talent that is poorly coached. YMMV.
 
#1,066      

UofIChE06

Pittsburgh
And it's impossible for any of these things to happen to Tilmon!

Since you mentioned Wiltjer I looked back at his class.

Wiltjer was #19. #22 Dorian Finney-Smith transferred. #28 Michael Gbinije transferred.

In 2012 #22 Devonte Pollard, #24 Tony Parker and #29 Danuel House transferred.

In 2013 #20 Austin Nichols transferred (and then got kicked off the second team and is transferring again), #25 Jermaine Lawrence transferred, #27 Keith Frazier transferred, #30 Kuran Iverson transferred.

You made the following statement



To the extent that statement is directed at players in the talent range of Jeremiah Tilmon, that statement is undeniably incorrect.

You have too much time on your hands.

House never had to have a sit year. Gbinije didn't get time for Duke because well they are Duke. Pollard has a truly insane story that forced him to JUCO not really by his own choice. Parker was a Bruin for 4 years although he is probably one of my least favorite HS players I have watched live. Guy was a complete baby thug on the court.

Also your last line is why almost no one on this board likes you
 
#1,067      
JG strengths are his recruiting, relationship to his players and good public presentation.

Weakness per this thread are X's and O's.

I would push back a little bit on this. When you say "X's and O's" as basically "ability to turn recruited talent into wins" I think you make it a bit too simplistic.

Groce is not Josh Pastner. We don't play AAU ball. We scout and gameplan for our opponents relatively well (not as well as Weber did - his greatest strength as a coach - but well). We play a real offense and generally look to exploit favorable matchups.

Where Groce's team usually fail in my eyes is in playing with confidence and trusting the system we're running in times of stress. Shot clock winding down, pressure in the backcourt, late game clutch situations, our guys continually abandon the plan. That's all about belief in what you're doing from a basketball perspective, and that's on the head coach to build that belief in the summer and during practice so that it's just muscle memory when the game gets intense. You could bring in the greatest greaseboard jockey to ever grace a sideline, if the kids can't execute it when it counts, it's not gonna matter.


Believe it is much easier to cover his weakness with a good assistant than it is to find someone with his strengths in the other areas.

An assistant who is going to bring in different fundamental basketball ideas is only as good as the level of trust the head coach has in that person. Groce has steadfastly refused to make any staff changes, shockingly in my view, and it's clear that he doesn't have any desire to hand over some of his responsibility to an outside voice. Forcing that upon him would be ineffective at best. It's not like football where you can take away playcalling duties from someone, and even that is a bad idea.

Even if we rebound and Groce keeps his job, I would hope there might be a new voice brought in going forward. But I'm not holding my breath. Single-mindedness is part of the John Groce package, for better and worse.


Recruiting is not a one year project but building of relationships and starting over is not a one year project.

The idea that recruiting is hindered in the first year of a new coaching administration does not hold up to scrutiny. Just off the top of my head, Cuonzo Martin at Cal, Mark Gottfried at NC State, Dave Rice at UNLV and Steve Lavin at St. Johns all brought monster, game-changing recruiting classes to non-blue blood schools in their first year at the helm.

This became a piece of folk wisdom around here as an excuse for Groce finishing as a bridesmaid for so many big recruits. It was a way to relieve the cognitive dissonance of JFG the elite recruiter versus the actual results. It isn't true.
 
#1,069      

Ransom Stoddard

Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Yeah, proving people wrong seldom makes one popular. Hopefully I make out better than Socrates :eek:

No, it's more an issue of providing evidence why someone is wrong, rather than just emphatically declaring that they are.

To the extent that statement is directed at players in the talent range of Jeremiah Tilmon, that statement is undeniably incorrect.

Why is that statement undeniably incorrect?
 
#1,070      
Not sure this is the correct thread to discuss this or not.

I have noticed in past few years something different about Matta's coaching style than many other head coaches. Last night during a timeout in the last minute of the game one of Matta's assistant coaches (Chris Jent) was drawing up the play and talking to the players while Matta stood beside him(like assistants usually do). I have seen this in previous years with Matta and his assisants. Just last year it was a different assistant (Jeff Boals) who has since moved on to become HC at Stony Brook.

Most other head coaches will huddle up with there assistants to discuss the plan then the head coach will present it to the players.

I am not saying this is good or bad...just an observation!
 
#1,071      
Still have an opinion not shared by majority but still makes the most sense to me.

JG strengths are his recruiting, relationship to his players and good public presentation.

Weakness per this thread are X's and O's.

Believe it is much easier to cover his weakness with a good assistant than it is to find someone with his strengths in the other areas. Recruiting is not a one year project but building of relationships and starting over is not a one year project. In two years with a new coach, this thread would be repeated. IMO

I like the way you think on this one. To me that's the easy way to solve the problem. Groce has a lot of things going for him, imo it's not X's and O's.
 
#1,072      
Why is that statement undeniably incorrect?

The statement again, emphasis mine:

I think the sit out year is a huge deterrent to legitimate NBA prospects. Very few of those caliber players transfer under any circumstances.

To which I responded:

Tilmon is RSCI #25

the class of 2014, #25 Shaqqan Aaron has transferred, #27 Kameron Chatman has transferred, #28 Isaac Copeland has transferred

Wiltjer was #19. #22 Dorian Finney-Smith transferred. #28 Michael Gbinije transferred.

In 2012 #22 Devonte Pollard, #24 Tony Parker and #29 Danuel House transferred.

In 2013 #20 Austin Nichols transferred (and then got kicked off the second team and is transferring again), #25 Jermaine Lawrence transferred, #27 Keith Frazier transferred, #30 Kuran Iverson transferred.


LOTS of that caliber of player has transferred. He said Wiltjer was the only one he could think of. I named 12 more in five minutes on Google.

And his response was to nitpick the circumstances of each individual transfer, which is non-responsive to the issue.

I don't mean to be a jerk. I don't think I'm smarter than everyone because I can do a Google search. Nor do I think others are dumb because they don't waste their work hours digging through the internet about college basketball players. I just feel like our arguments ought to based on factual predicates that hold up to scrutiny. And if people stubbornly cling to ideas that fall apart in the face of the evidence, the whole point of a discussion board like this is to point that out, right? Isn't that why this is fun?

And I understand how it's a bad, arrogant look for me to say so, but it's still true: a lot of the received wisdom on this board about how to estimate and anticipate the future of recruits is just not very accurate. And the accuracy of those assumptions is very, very important to people's perceptions of what we do about John Groce going forward, which is the purpose of this thread.
 
#1,073      
I would push back a little bit on this. When you say "X's and O's" as basically "ability to turn recruited talent into wins" I think you make it a bit too simplistic.

Groce is not Josh Pastner. We don't play AAU ball. We scout and gameplan for our opponents relatively well (not as well as Weber did - his greatest strength as a coach - but well). We play a real offense and generally look to exploit favorable matchups.

Where Groce's team usually fail in my eyes is in playing with confidence and trusting the system we're running in times of stress. Shot clock winding down, pressure in the backcourt, late game clutch situations, our guys continually abandon the plan. That's all about belief in what you're doing from a basketball perspective, and that's on the head coach to build that belief in the summer and during practice so that it's just muscle memory when the game gets intense. You could bring in the greatest greaseboard jockey to ever grace a sideline, if the kids can't execute it when it counts, it's not gonna matter.




An assistant who is going to bring in different fundamental basketball ideas is only as good as the level of trust the head coach has in that person. Groce has steadfastly refused to make any staff changes, shockingly in my view, and it's clear that he doesn't have any desire to hand over some of his responsibility to an outside voice. Forcing that upon him would be ineffective at best. It's not like football where you can take away playcalling duties from someone, and even that is a bad idea.

Even if we rebound and Groce keeps his job, I would hope there might be a new voice brought in going forward. But I'm not holding my breath. Single-mindedness is part of the John Groce package, for better and worse.




The idea that recruiting is hindered in the first year of a new coaching administration does not hold up to scrutiny. Just off the top of my head, Cuonzo Martin at Cal, Mark Gottfried at NC State, Dave Rice at UNLV and Steve Lavin at St. Johns all brought monster, game-changing recruiting classes to non-blue blood schools in their first year at the helm.

This became a piece of folk wisdom around here as an excuse for Groce finishing as a bridesmaid for so many big recruits. It was a way to relieve the cognitive dissonance of JFG the elite recruiter versus the actual results. It isn't true.
All good points. A lot of the in game problems to me, are because of the lack of quickness and we're not very athletic, we have big time problems with those kind no of teams
 
#1,074      

UofIChE06

Pittsburgh
I don't mean to be a jerk. I don't think I'm smarter than everyone because I can do a Google search.

Could have fooled me and a number of people that have been here a long time. I personally am going to do what I should have quite some time ago. Enjoy yourself railing on people on a message board proving you know the most about Illini basketball. I won't have the "pleasure" of seeing it anymore
 
#1,075      

Foggy Notion

San Francisco
The idea that recruiting is hindered in the first year of a new coaching administration does not hold up to scrutiny. Just off the top of my head, Cuonzo Martin at Cal, Mark Gottfried at NC State, Dave Rice at UNLV and Steve Lavin at St. Johns all brought monster, game-changing recruiting classes to non-blue blood schools in their first year at the helm.
.

And how did that work out for those coaches? Half of Lavin's "monster" class didn't end up playing for him. Rice is gone at UNLV. We beat Gottfried's team full of his great recruits (and many on this board thought they stunk). It's too early to tell with Martin at Cal, but his results are mediocre so far.
 
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