2017 Coaching Carousel

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#1,026      

LurkLongandProsper

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LurkLongandProsper
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Here's a clue, :D = humor. And is name calling "doing anything for the discussion or the topic at hand"? I think not.
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"Trolling" is a verb, not name calling.

No, he claimed data supported his point, which was when I asked to see it. I didn't see any claims of data from "the other guy".
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He said:

Second and Chalmers said:
The data doesn't really bear that out generally (transfers are becoming more and more common every year), and the specific scenario you're proposing make it even more dubious in this case.
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in response to the other guy's claim. He doesn't claim it supports his own case.

His data was limited in size and scope, which is why I asked him (using humor!) for more. This was also explained further in the conversation, which apparently you missed.
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He stated in your post you replied to with "humor" (a smiley face doesn't really directly equate to humor...) that it was a small sample size. Additionally, in context, you (and a few other posters) tend to assume he's acting as a know-it-all in all contexts, for whatever reason, so pardon me for missing your humor

Second and Chalmers said:
For the record, I'd love to see some more comprehensive data on recruits asking out of their LOI's after coaching changes. I did a bit of googling but I couldn't find anything.

It does definitely happen from time to time.
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All 3 events definitely happen (transferring after enrolling and a coaching change, asking out of LOIs after a coaching change, and decomitting after a coaching change), I just don't think you'll find data to prove any sort of legitimate correlation/causation relationship when there are a large amount of factors that go into those decisions. The point you succinctly made earlier is that we can't just confidently say what our current players/commits will do in the case of a coaching change after 2017 or after 2018
 
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#1,029      

Second and Chalmers

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Second and Chalmers
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Yeah, can't imagine why.
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#1,031      

FiveStar

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FiveStar
Second and Chalmers said:
I lol'd

For the record, I haven't given up on Groce just yet. But I am not liking what I'm seeing so far this season.

Signing Tom Crean's death warrant would change the tone.
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Let's play a game. Illinois has John Groce, or replaces him with Tom Crean, as head coach next year.

Who gets the nod? Anyone can play.
 
#1,033      

LurkLongandProsper

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LurkLongandProsper
So... back to my last discussion point I tried to start, anyone know any assistant coaches at major college programs not named Jeff Capel worth looking at?
 
#1,034      

Second and Chalmers

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Second and Chalmers
LurkLongandProsper said:
So... back to my last discussion point I tried to start, anyone know any assistant coaches at major college programs not named Jeff Capel worth looking at?
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Eh, it's pretty slim pickings. Jerrance. Mike Hopkins at Syracuse gets a lot of buzz but he's the head coach in waiting there. I don't think we should be too eager to give someone their first head coaching job.
 
#1,035      

LurkLongandProsper

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LurkLongandProsper
Second and Chalmers said:
Eh, it's pretty slim pickings. Jerrance. Mike Hopkins at Syracuse gets a lot of buzz but he's the head coach in waiting there. I don't think we should be too eager to give someone their first head coaching job.
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Just probing for potential candidates, I know quite a few people didn't like Mike Thomas' "Head Coach elsewhere first" rule, so I thought it may be worth discussing/looking into. Obviously there aren't tons of Jeff Capels out there, but I'd definitely be open to guys with his sort of resume, and am not entirely afraid of going for a career assistant providing the resume is right.
 
#1,037      

BananaShampoo

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Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
BananaShampoo
Second and Chalmers said:
Eh, it's pretty slim pickings. Jerrance. Mike Hopkins at Syracuse gets a lot of buzz but he's the head coach in waiting there. I don't think we should be too eager to give someone their first head coaching job.
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Agree. We should definitely aim higher this time if and when a change is going to be made. I have confidence that JW will.
 
#1,038      

LurkLongandProsper

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LurkLongandProsper
FiveStar said:
Let's play a game. Illinois has John Groce, or replaces him with Tom Crean, as head coach next year.

Who gets the nod? Anyone can play.
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For all the basketball x's and o's? Crean, no doubt. Groce is obviously less slimey, but Crean is a better coach (not really close in my opinion, but I'm sure others will disagree). Recruiting is a wash. Groce wins for 'face of the program' points though.
 
#1,040      

jrichisamazing

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jrichisamazing
LurkLongandProsper said:
For all the basketball x's and o's? Crean, no doubt. Groce is obviously less slimey, but Crean is a better coach (not really close in my opinion, but I'm sure others will disagree). Recruiting is a wash. Groce wins for 'face of the program' points though.
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I'm not sure who is better at X's and O's, but I think it's closer than you make it seem. It's hard to tell because Crean has had more talent for sure. I do think Crean is pretty good at getting his teams to play the style he wants which is fast-paced, open, up and down basketball. Personally, I think this style of play is really tough to consistently win with unless you are pulling in loads of 5 stars every year. They turn the ball over a lot, don't play defense, and can struggle when teams get them in a half-court game.
 
#1,043      

MadSeason

MadSeason
MadSeason
JimmyTheLayup said:
Does Jerrance have any actual buzz outside of Illinois message boards?


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Probably not but basketball is not like Football where it is easy to identify the rising stars based on the performance of their units. In hoops outside of maybe Duke the only people who know about the Assistants are the fans of the schools they have coached at. I don't think Josh Pastner, Buzz Williams, Chris Mack etc were household names to anyone outside their respective programs until they ascended to head coach.
 
#1,044      

UofIChE06

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Pittsburgh
UofIChE06
Second and Chalmers said:
For the record, I'd love to see some more comprehensive data on recruits asking out of their LOI's after coaching changes. I did a bit of googling but I couldn't find anything.

It does definitely happen from time to time.
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That is exactly why I didn't pull any because I am not paid to sit around all data and do data cleansing to find the applicable data. Like I said before the subset of recruits with actual options when given an out on the LOI is small. It would take a substantial amount of research to determine how likely they are to leave versus a key contributor from the roster which would be equally difficult to data cleanse. Just using the Groce transition you obviously wouldn't count someone like Ibby but you would want to count someone like Henry that the staff clearly wanted to keep. We know about that situation, the Hill re-commitment, the Charlie V situation, and the '05 class being talked out of transferring by Weber because we are fans of UI. Getting that information for a wide range of coaching changes would be nearly impossible. Therefore I relied on simple logic in that a person with external options and no penalty for making a change in school (ie a sit out year) is more likely to make a change than someone that is already on the roster and facing a significant deterrent should they leave.
 
#1,047      

Second and Chalmers

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Second and Chalmers
UofIChE06 said:
Like I said before the subset of recruits with actual options when given an out on the LOI is small.
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I get your point, but like, that subset includes Kipper Nichols, who isn't some five star with Kansas nipping at his heels.


Therefore I relied on simple logic in that a person with external options and no penalty for making a change in school (ie a sit out year) is more likely to make a change than someone that is already on the roster and facing a significant deterrent should they leave.
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And again, NCAA rules are designed to make that true, and it does make logical sense, but I think the argument about players becoming more attached to a coach after a year than before they've ever played for them also carries some weight, and the evidence is overwhelming that the sit-out year isn't the deterrent it used to be.

Gun to my head? Here is my guess. If we fire Groce this offseason, Frazier sticks, and Tilmon turns on whether we retain Jamall Walker or not (and my bet is that we don't).

But if we miss the tournament and sign Groce to a pretextual recruit-poaching Cubit extension, I sincerely believe our roster will get devastated. Whether it will involve Tilmon and Frazier specifically I don't know, but I think the idea that we can wink-wink, nudge-nudge our way to trapping the appealing-looking 2019 roster to hand to a new coach in March 2018 is deeply, deeply flawed. It would be a very ugly year between here and there.

And my further bet is that Josh Whitman, who in his actions and statements around the Cubit-to-Lovie handoff made very clear the importance he places on giving his players credible, empowered, stable leadership, isn't going to give much consideration to that sort of sleight-of-hand. He's a guy who understands how much less fun it is to be in the weight room at 6AM as opposed to blowing up the coaching carousel thread on the internet.
 
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#1,048      

JoseyWales83

JoseyWales83
JoseyWales83
jrichisamazing said:
I'm not sure who is better at X's and O's, but I think it's closer than you make it seem. It's hard to tell because Crean has had more talent for sure. I do think Crean is pretty good at getting his teams to play the style he wants which is fast-paced, open, up and down basketball. Personally, I think this style of play is really tough to consistently win with unless you are pulling in loads of 5 stars every year. They turn the ball over a lot, don't play defense, and can struggle when teams get them in a half-court game.
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That will be the key to this game is to try to slow down the pace. I'm guessing we will have less offensive rebounds send we will try to send people back to avoid run outs.
 
#1,050      

UofIChE06

U
Pittsburgh
UofIChE06
Second and Chalmers said:
And again, NCAA rules are designed to make that true, and it does make logical sense, but I think the argument about players becoming more attached to a coach after a year than before they've ever played for them also carries some weight, and the evidence is overwhelming that the sit-out year isn't the deterrent it used to be.

Gun to my head? Here is my guess. If we fire Groce this offseason, Frazier sticks, and Tilmon turns on whether we retain Jamall Walker or not (and my bet is that we don't).

But if we miss the tournament and sign Groce to a pretextual recruit-poaching Cubit extension, I sincerely believe our roster will get devastated. Whether it will involve Tilmon and Frazier specifically I don't know, but I think the idea that we can wink-wink, nudge-nudge our way to trapping the appealing-looking 2019 roster to hand to a new coach in March 2018 is deeply, deeply flawed. It would be a very ugly year between here and there.

And my further bet is that Josh Whitman, who in his actions and statements around the Cubit-to-Lovie handoff made very clear the importance he places on giving his players credible, empowered, stable leadership, isn't going to give much consideration to that sort of sleight-of-hand. He's a guy who understands how much less fun it is to be in the weight room at 6AM as opposed to blowing up the coaching carousel thread on the internet.
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I think the sit out year is a huge deterrent to legitimate NBA prospects. Very few of those caliber players transfer under any circumstances. Wiltjer is the only one that comes to mind quickly. Everyone else, which is the vast majority of collegiate players, absolutely will transfer and sit out if they think it is in their best interest. Delaying an uncertain future that at best is playing overseas in a foreign country is much easier than delaying your entry into the NBA.

As far as what I think would happen if Groce is gone following the season... like you said previously I don't think it matters much. If it is clear cut that he needs to go Whitman needs to do it regardless of the repercussions. That said I think Tilmon and possibly Frazier would be gone. Tilmon because he will have unlimited opportunities for a more stable future and Frazier because of distance. Damonte and Pickett would stay almost certainly.

Finally I'm not sure they need to either fire or extend Groce following this season. He has two years left I believe and the '18 class isn't exactly crucial to the point that any single recruit can say they will only commit to Groce versus committing to the school. If the decision still isn't obvious after next season (which I highly doubt it would be to most) you move on with someone else. But what it comes down to is performance. I think it will be pretty apparent even after this season if Groce will be sticking around. Obviously you can't really fire a coach that makes the tourney because of media backlash and I don't think you can argue to keep him if they don't make it as it would be a fairly historic run of below expectation play.
 
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