2017 Coaching Carousel

[Deleted member 29907]

Coach swap with Dayton?? :thumb:






I tend to side with the perspective that our basketball history is a little overblown in terms of national perception (had no connection to UI before coming here for undergrad may moons ago, coming from VA), but I think you're quite off-base here.

(1) The Big Ten is easily a top 2 conference for hoops right now. The current down year in the conference does not dissuade that -- there is more history across the board here than there is in the B12 that reinforces that. ACC and the Big Ten are the top two conferences for hoops.

(2) Illinois may not be a end-goal job, but it's not a blue blood, so why would it be? Nobody is saying we are a basketball blue blood, but Illinois is largely considered a tier 2 job after the blue bloods. Heck, S&C referenced Big Ten Geeks (my favorite B10 hoops twitter account), and they had this to say:







I would agree with those assessments. There are a lot of really good gigs in the Big Ten, and Illinois is one of them. It's not currently a "land it, do well, stay forever" job, but it is a good gig.

(3) To piggyback off of (2), pointing at Stevens and Shaka as evidence we are not a destination job really depends on your definition of "destination job". I view that term as defining good/great jobs. Tier 1/Tier 2, using B10 Geeks' definition. If you're using it only to reference Tier 1, I would agree, we are not currently a final stop gig, and Shaka/Stevens had "hold out for a final stop gig" resumes. But, we certainly have the resources, recruiting base, and fanbase to support a coach getting ILL to that level.

Lastly,

(4) VTech is not a good basketball job. At all. Just because it's in the ACC doesn't really mean much, that gig is comparable to what he had in the Marquette Big East because there is no consistent talent (like, downstate IL has P5 talent 5x as often as anywhere south of DC in VA does) within 2.5 hours unless Oak Hill has a great year, the fanbase barely cares about hoops there, students and alumni alike, and there's not really any history there either. In terms of current state of the roster, it's lateral, but in upside when comparing resources, etc, ILL is a better job. That is not to say I think he will leave VTech, but I do, as someone who tends to lean a little cynical towards basketball here (I tend to take exception to defining us as a basketball school, for example -- JMO, don't take my head off for this one!), but I do believe ILL is a better job than VT and a majority of P5 schools quite easily.

Disagree on several accounts - VA Tech roster is much better than ours right now - much more aggressive and athletic. And they play aggressive D. (I watch all games of both teams). The fan base in Blacksburg is very strong - Football is the focus of course, they just have not had much of a team to love over the last many years - kind of like Illinois. But they will support their team. Sounded much louder than our fans did the last few games unfortunately.

Sometimes good coaches create good basketball jobs. VA Beach and Richmond are 'close enough' for talent. And there has been some very good talent in the region over the last 4+ years.

The downside to Va Tech is that there will always be Duke and UNC to play against. They will always draw talent. Illinois has, maybe MSU and Indiana by comparison.

 

[MadSeason]

Disagree on several accounts - VA Tech roster is much better than ours right now - much more aggressive and athletic. And they play aggressive D. (I watch all games of both teams). The fan base in Blacksburg is very strong - Football is the focus of course, they just have not had much of a team to love over the last many years - kind of like Illinois. But they will support their team. Sounded much louder than our fans did the last few games unfortunately.

Sometimes good coaches create good basketball jobs. VA Beach and Richmond are 'close enough' for talent. And there has been some very good talent in the region over the last 4+ years.

The downside to Va Tech is that there will always be Duke and UNC to play against. They will always draw talent. Illinois has, maybe MSU and Indiana by comparison.

You are looking at a brief snapshot in time. There are a lot of programs currently that have better talent and more interested fanbase. However, with the right coach Illinois has many advantages over Va. Tech. Not the least of which is in state talent and a gigantic basketball fanbase when we are anything resembling good

 

[Deleted member 29907]

You are looking at a brief snapshot in time. There are a lot of programs currently that have better talent and more interested fanbase. However, with the right coach Illinois has many advantages over Va. Tech. Not the least of which is in state talent and a gigantic basketball fanbase when we are anything resembling good

In state talent where? The talent in Chicago we don't get?

Where am i looking at a brief snapshot? My statement is they have not been good at basketball for a long time. Long is not brief. My point is - you can change that attitude pretty quickly with a good coach who likes where he is. Don't assume he doesn't like Tech. I personally don't know but would not assume it.

As another poster said - head to head if both jobs were open at the same time Illinois wins all other things being equal. Once landed however, he may like what he sees.

Also to say gigantic fanbase when we are good is not really a compliment of our fanbase.

 

[cjcastan]

In state talent where? The talent in Chicago we don't get?

I bet the state of Illinois outside of Chicago still produces more D1 talents than more than half of the country.

 

[The Pontiff]

The reason we ended up with Groce has a lot more to do with Mike Thomas than the opportunity at Illinois. Groce is the least qualified coach we've hired in the last 50 years - maybe ever. His best team finished third in the MAC even though he had the best talent. His ceiling at Illinois is similar - contending for a 4th to 7th place finish. The better talent he's bringing in is still nowhere near the talent we had on our best teams in the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. It's not even close.

Whitman will make a good decision and I'm pretty confident he can land a coach that can get the program back on track. I doubt though that he can land a "sure thing" coach and that's why this decision is going to be so hard.

Spot on - I don't think you can underestimate the negative effect of Mike Thomas during that hire. And there's really no such thing as a "sure thing", but rather a degree of confidence, which of course is subjective. At the end of the day, if the program goals that JW set for Groce to achieve this year aren't met, then for his own credibility with his stakeholders (admin, donors, employees, etc.), he'll need to move Groce on and make the most confident hire he can.

 

[FiveStar]

I bet the state of Illinois outside of Chicago still produces more D1 talents than more than half of the country.

Pains me to say this but Texas by itself produces more talent than Illinois, including Chicago. That could probably be broken down to just the dfw metroplex and Houston and still be a true statement.

 

[Serious Late]

It could just be shell shock, but the comparisons of Thomas to Whitman are approaching the territory of talk around Weber to Groce. Whitman has made a nice hire. Groce had a nice first season. Neither has proven to be the solution to Illinois' sports program issues.

I certainly hope Whitman becomes a legend based on his successes at Illinois. Getting his first B-BALL hire right will go a long way toward that.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

 

[UIUC1867]

A one time occurrence doesn't make it the norm. Can you name the 2nd?

I never implied that it was the norm and no, I won't and can't answer your question.

I changed my mind. I forgot about Gene Bartow (Illinois to UCLA).

Apologies about my lack of knowledge. Perhaps I should take my lack of talents to HQ so as to no longer offend anyone. :wave:

 

[Second and Chalmers]

If Groce got fired, I doubt he could better right of the bat. Most likely path is an assistant at a good school, where he could work his resume back up.

That may be what he chooses to do, but an ex-P5 head coach with even a modicum of success is a pretty appealing opportunity for a mid-major. His resume is not in tatters at all, it's just no longer what a major school like Illinois is looking for. I mentioned the AAC and Jeff Lebo at East Carolina and Johnny Dawkins at UCF spring to mind as comparisons.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Disagree on several accounts - VA Tech roster is much better than ours right now - much more aggressive and athletic. And they play aggressive D. (I watch all games of both teams).

Much better is a stretch, but Buzz has brought good talent there and they are a better team than us at the moment.

The fan base in Blacksburg is very strong - Football is the focus of course, they just have not had much of a team to love over the last many years - kind of like Illinois. But they will support their team. Sounded much louder than our fans did the last few games unfortunately.

I personally find musty old gyms like Cassell Coliseum really charming and cool, so it's not with malice that I state the plain facts: Virginia Tech plays to half-empty crowds in a dump.

In an 10,000 seat gym, Va Tech averaged 6,600 fans last year, and 5,700 the year before.

Illinois in a disastrous year which was functionally over in November, with the lower capacity Springfield games mixed in, averaged 12,700.

And the bolded statement is just so laughable. Illinois is staring into an unheard-of abyss with the possibility of missing the tournament four times in a row. Virginia Tech has made the tourney once since 1996 (no commentary on who they may or may not have beaten there :frustrated. It's almost too much to process that we haven't been to the second weekend since 2005. Virginia Tech has been to the Sweet Sixteen once, ever, in 1967.

Virginia Tech is a strong contender for the least tradition-rich Power Five school not named Northwestern.

No one cares about Virginia Tech basketball. That's not a nice thing to say, but there's no more accurate way to state why that program is not, in a vacuum, an appealing destination for coaches. There's nothing WRONG with the program, it's a big public school, big alumni base, you can get kids into school, the Mid-Atlantic region has plenty of talent, you could renovate or replace the arena, etc. But no one cares. That's a big impediment.

Sometimes good coaches create good basketball jobs.

No doubt. But Virginia Tech is a 20 year project whereas Illinois is a 3 year project.

In state talent where? The talent in Chicago we don't get?

The strength of the Illinois job is not the punchers chance at a Derrick Rose, it's the ability to wander into the recruitments of a Brandon Paul or a Nnanna Egwu with an advantage. Plus the talent available in Central IL where there really is home school loyalty.

Illinois' position as one of the top basketball talent producing states isn't just at the top, it's the depth of high-major prospects.


Because all of this stuff is so much in the eye of the beholder and there is so much randomness and circumstance that goes into the coaching carousel, I hate to delve into the "WHICH JOB IS BETTER" stuff, most of all because it instantly devolves into "YOUR FANS DO NOT DESERVE TO EVER BE HAPPY". It's a silly conversation.

But seeing Illinois even compared to Virginia Tech I felt I had to wade in. The reason Virginia Tech has Buzz Williams is because he was on shaky ground at Marquette and they paid him an ungodly sum of money. The reason he probably won't leave is because he's on stable ground at Virginia Tech and they paid him an ungodly sum of money.

 

[Obelix]

That may be what he chooses to do, but an ex-P5 head coach with even a modicum of success is a pretty appealing opportunity for a mid-major. His resume is not in tatters at all, it's just no longer what a major school like Illinois is looking for. I mentioned the AAC and Jeff Lebo at East Carolina and Johnny Dawkins at UCF spring to mind as comparisons.

Yes, but Groce is a midwest guy and when you look at the AAC, he is not going to get Tulsa or Cincinnati. Now, as far as East Carolina, I am not sure how much better that job is from the ones mentioned. Never say never, but I can't see Groce getting a "much better" job than Bowling Green right off the bat, I see Groce more on a similar path to David Leitao (after getting fired at Virginia) or even Jeff Capel (returning to OSU). All these scenarios are premature, however.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Never say never, but I can't see Groce getting a "much better" job than Bowling Green right off the bat

Maybe "much better" is overstating it, but since you bring up that example, seems pretty obvious to me that there's a MAC job for Groce whenever he wants it. Or OVC or the Summit or whatever, one of the lesser mid-major leagues with a midwest presence.

So if he chooses to go be an assistant somewhere, that's because he chose to do so, not because that's all he could get. OSU would probably pay him more than Bowling Green too, that's a factor.

Also, why wouldn't Tulsa hire him? Obviously that's one job for which there will be many candidates, but they hired Frank Haith, in large part because they were sick of other schools poaching their coaches, a tradition that predates Self. Groce would have the same appeal, with a fairly Haith-like resume, and without the NCAA stink.

 

[Obelix]

Maybe "much better" is overstating it, but since you bring up that example, seems pretty obvious to me that there's a MAC job for Groce whenever he wants it. Or OVC or the Summit or whatever, one of the lesser mid-major leagues with a midwest presence.

So if he chooses to go be an assistant somewhere, that's because he chose to do so, not because that's all he could get. OSU would probably pay him more than Bowling Green too, that's a factor.

Also, why wouldn't Tulsa hire him? Obviously that's one job for which there will be many candidates, but they hired Frank Haith, in large part because they were sick of other schools poaching their coaches, a tradition that predates Self. Groce would have the same appeal, with a fairly Haith-like resume, and without the NCAA stink.

I do not disagree, just can't see it as very likely. Schools have surprised me with their choices in the past. But Cincinnati is a much better job IMO for Groce IF he gets fired, and I can't see Tulsa making a coaching change. Haith did have NCAA problems but when he got the job, his resume was better than Groce in the last few years. JMO.

 

[IlliniBacker]

I'm not trying to anger anyone so this is my last thought. Five years ago Smart and Stevens turned down $2.5 milllion a year to leave VCU and Butler and those weren't power 5 conference schools. Is Illinois any more appealing after Groce? So why would someone leave the ACC?

Two things.

First, VCU and Butler became VCU and Butler because of Smart and Stevens, not because they were VCU and Butler. Given time, they will go back to being historically VCU and Butler as bball programs. (and maybe Smart should have stayed there due to fit) As far as ACC vs. Big 10 - It's kind of silly to argue VaTech's ceiling is higher than UI's just because they are ACC.

Second... What you are lacking is a historical big picture view of Illinois as an institution.

It's no secret that historically (post slush fund) as a university Illinois was more or less just happy to field a team. Meaning - there was no institutional commitment to WINNING at Illinois. The coaching communities (fball & bball) are well aware of it. This, on top of State of Illinois issues plus the university leadership being a total mess really made it tough to attract a top tier coach - particularly during the last bball coaching transition.

The difference now, is that with Whitman's hiring and his subsequent hiring of Lovie Smith it seems that Illinois as a university has put a stake in the ground and said that winning is a priority. (demonstrated by the resources, support, and authority given to Whitman to make the moves he has on the football side)

With increased institutional support, individual donor support also improves. (Who wants to give their $$ to a middling athletic program?)

So... we shall see what happens with basketball. Hopefully, Whitman continues the football approach on the basketball side. He's still going to need to do a great sales job to get the right coach here.

But... if he does, UI could be a perennial Top 15, Top 10 program. It's not a stretch.

 

[Obelix]

First, VCU and Butler became VCU and Butler because of Smart and Stevens, not because they were VCU and Butler.

VCU's ascend started much earlier, Capel, Grant, etc. I think Stevens getting Butler to consecutive national title games was the biggest coaching achievement in NCAA tournament history.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Given time, they will go back to being historically VCU and Butler as bball programs.

That's overstating it. Both of those programs leveraged their success into bigger, more lucrative conferences and the infrastructural upgrades to match. Those programs aren't going back to what they were in the Horizon League and CAA, respectively.

Butler made the bigger jump and probably has the better underlying bone structure as a program (and was also a longtime mid-major power before Stevens), so I'd bet on their staying power punching over their weight longer than VCU, but both programs did well for themselves.

Contrast those two with, say, George Mason, who were content to experience their 15 minutes of fame and stay what they were. (Nothing wrong with that)

 

[FiveStar]

That's overstating it. Both of those programs leveraged their success into bigger, more lucrative conferences and the infrastructural upgrades to match. Those programs aren't going back to what they were in the Horizon League and CAA, respectively.

Butler made the bigger jump and probably has the better underlying bone structure as a program (and was also a longtime mid-major power before Stevens), so I'd bet on their staying power punching over their weight longer than VCU, but both programs did well for themselves.

Contrast those two with, say, George Mason, who were content to experience their 15 minutes of fame and stay what they were. (Nothing wrong with that)

There's also enough talent in Indiana and the immediate surrounding areas to keep Butler at their current level. ND, IU and PU also all recruit nationally. The years they do more of that the more local talent there is for Butler to grab.

 

[IlliniBacker]

That's overstating it. Both of those programs leveraged their success into bigger, more lucrative conferences and the infrastructural upgrades to match. Those programs aren't going back to what they were in the Horizon League and CAA, respectively.

Perhaps a bit of hyperbole on my part. Didn't mean to imply that they weren't or couldn't be quality programs... just that it's likely that they go back to being the team that overachieves and plays spoiler.

My main point was that Stevens was the secret sauce at Butler. Don't expect to see them back in the NC game soon.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Perhaps a bit of hyperbole on my part. Didn't mean to imply that they weren't or couldn't be quality programs... just that it's likely that they go back to being the team that overachieves and plays spoiler.

My main point was that Stevens was the secret sauce at Butler. Don't expect to see them back in the NC game soon.

I guess the real question is, can Butler hang in the Big East? Which is kind of wrapped up with another question, can the Big East hang with the Power Five?

Both interesting questions. But say this for Butler, ten years ago, they just weren't the same level of program as a Providence or a St. Johns, even if they were probably a better basketball team at the time.

Now there is no real difference, PLUS Butler is still a better basketball team. They have caught up.

In ten more years, maybe we'll be wondering if some of the lesser Big East schools have the resources to catch up with Butler.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Fun fact as long as we're on Butler: Chris Holtmann and John Groce once shared a backcourt for NAIA Taylor University, which was ranked #1 in NAIA while the two of them were there.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Fun fact as long as we're on Butler: Chris Holtmann and John Groce once shared a backcourt for NAIA Taylor University, which was ranked #1 in NAIA while the two of them were there.

John and Chris

 

[jerome]

Long time lurker, first tenuous post:

I really like John Groce's personality. But I'm not going to continue to squint, trying not to see what is readily apparent: He's not fit for this job.

It's not purely the W/L results, though those have been alarming and unacceptable. (People will always counter that Coach K had a horrible record his first few years, etc.)

It's the obvious lack of successful, coherent on-floor schemes, on both ends of the floor. For years.

And yet we keep hearing about what "the next few games will tell us", or, "We'll know after we see what he does with a real PG," or "Next year will reveal a lot."

We shouldn't have to keep learning the same thing, over and over. We're just refusing to see.

We just want to make it work. But it's like other forms of denial - like when a woman refuses to see her handsome boyfriend's obvious fatal flaws, and marries him anyway. Or when I go to buy a car, and conveniently dismiss the rattling noise because I love the car's look and stereo.

I'm afraid we'll lose the incoming class, JT and TF in particular, but this can't continue. We're well past small sample size concerns. The jury is not still out. The verdict is in.

It's too bad, because we all sure wanted it to work.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

And yet we keep hearing about what "the next few games will tell us", or, "We'll know after we see what he does with a real PG," or "Next year will reveal a lot."

It's a great first post, but as someone who said all of these things, I would just add, these games ARE telling us, we ARE finding out what he does with real PG(s), and this year IS revealing a lot.

 

[bigruss22]

It's a great first post, but as someone who said all of these things, I would just add, these games ARE telling us, we ARE finding out what he does with real PG(s), and this year IS revealing a lot.

Yea I don't think it's so much a question of "do we know enough", it'll be more a question of "is it good enough" to keep Groce.

 

[dmac279]

It's a great first post, but as someone who said all of these things, I would just add, these games ARE telling us, we ARE finding out what he does with real PG(s), and this year IS revealing a lot.

IMO the next few games look very bleak. When we get our azz kicked by NW and Iowa it's going to get real ugly here. If we don't shoot 50% or better we're in trouble, no D