2017 Coaching Carousel

[Second and Chalmers]

Oh please, Fran did not make the NCAA tournament 4 years in a row. Now, conveniently, we substitute goals like making the tournament with Kenpom numbers. Huh?

What we want is an apples-to-apples, empirically rigorous measurement of team quality. And we have that in KenPom.

Your sole reliance on NCAA bids, especially when you've applied it to mid-majors in one-bid leagues, is the work of someone disinterested in studying this stuff seriously.

Yes, let's hire someone who will not make the NCAA tournament 4 years in a row

That's not arguing in good faith. I'm not going to respond to that.

You fascination with Fran McCaffery is mind boggling, especially as it relates to the Illini job and what Illinois needs right now. The last thing Illinois needs right now is another Fran McCaffery, absolutely terrible fit.

Huh? I'm not proposing Fran for the Illinois job which could never happen, even if I wanted it to. I honestly don't even understand what you're talking about.

 

[MadSeason]

Perhaps, but his ceiling versus where he's at at Cal right now really doesn't feel like as big a jump as some are suggesting. His '15 class (.9541 grade) is a damn good class, going much higher than that at a non-blue blood is quite the feat, and as S&C has suggested, should he not get there (as that's definitely not a given), what happens? Are we confident he can succeed at a high level here recruiting at a level similar to Groce? How much talent does he need to thrive, and how confident are we he can consistently land that level of talent?

The results following that .9541 class really weren't remarkable. As Jaylen Brown left early, he only had the full crop there for 2015-2016, and he went 23-11 with that group, T-3 in conference. That's the big question there and where we're seeing the philosophical differences on Cuonzo, in my opinion.

I suppose it depends on what level Illinois is capable of in recruiting. If you believe Illinois is capable of recruiting at an elite blue blood level, then Cuonzo conceivably could be the guy to do that and succeed here with average or better coaching.

If in the alternative you believe the Illinois job will not allow any candidate to recruit at a blue blood level, Cuonzo's ceiling is limited and we are probably looking at a moderate return.

It's unquestioned that in the past Illinois has recruited at a Blue Blood level.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Second and Chalmers, who we disagree with Fran, has specifically said (and please correct me if you did not, S&C) that he does not consider losing in the play-in game as "making the tournament."

I don't. I agree with the statement that Fran didn't make the tournament his first four years. He didn't make the field of 64, that is what counts.

But those four years were an outstanding rebuild of an absolutely moribund program (in a totally different position than where Illinois is now), and failure to recognize that indicates a fatal, systemic flaw in analysis of college basketball coaches.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

All I see are more risky choices. We will face another rebuild with no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless Whitman can get a proven winner, we are better off doing nothing.

As I genuinely do not understand this perspective, can you explain it to me? What exactly is the resume that is a 'proven winner' to you? Do you believe such a resume is actually hire-able for us right now, and there just are no such candidates on the market? I don't understand how you feel taking a risk is a worse choice than sticking with a guy we already know is worse than our last coach.

And seriously -- I'm asking for your thinking on this, this is not sarcasm or anything along that line. I just don't follow the trains of thought there personally and would like to hear it from someone who holds that belief.

 

[Obelix]

What we want is an apples-to-apples, empirically rigorous measurement of team quality. And we have that in KenPom.

Your sole reliance on NCAA bids, especially when you've applied it to mid-majors in one-bid leagues, is the work of someone disinterested in studying this stuff seriously.

Never said that that NCAA bids are the only parameter, just that you can't ignore the part of a coach's resume that indicates NCAA tournament success.

That's not arguing in good faith. I'm not going to respond to that.

Be honest, did you or did not say that you do not consider losing in the "play-in game" as making the tournament? That was your single reliance and criterion on Groce before the season, making the NCAA tournament (bid), independent of improvement, recruiting, NIT, etc. You specifically said that you do not consider losing in the play-in game as making the tournament.

Huh? I'm not proposing Fran for the Illinois job which could never happen, even if I wanted it to. I honestly don't even understand what you're talking about.

You brought up Fran as an example of successful coach in the discussion with the Illinois job, not as a specific coach that we should approach. As said in my response, it is not about hiring Fran (that will never happen if you wanted to), but accepting hiring a coach who will have Fran's record and achievements.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

accepting hiring a coach who will have Fran's record and achievements.

If we were in a position akin to where Todd Lickliter had Iowa circa 2010, I would gladly accept that.

If someone comes to Illinois and has a similar trajectory of improvement and success, we will be sweating about Kentucky or North Carolina stealing that coach by Year 4.

 

[IntenselyOrange]

Never said that that NCAA bids are the only parameter, just that you can't ignore the part of a coach's resume that indicates NCAA tournament success.



Be honest, did you or did not say that you do not consider losing in the "play-in game" as making the tournament? That was your single reliance and criterion on Groce before the season, making the NCAA tournament (bid), independent of improvement, recruiting, NIT, etc. You specifically said that you do not consider losing in the play-in game as making the tournament.



You brought up Fran as an example of successful coach in the discussion with the Illinois job, not as a specific coach that we should approach. As said in my response, it is not about hiring Fran (that will never happen if you wanted to), but accepting hiring a coach who will have Fran's record and achievements.

I think that the value of Kenpom in this discussion is that it shows just how bad the program at Iowa was. Turning around a team that is in the 70s is very different than turning around a team that is in the 170s. One is respectable, the other is not.

Now, IMO Fran is garbage. But the hand he was dealt was far worse than what Groce was handed and far worse that what the new Illinois coach is handed next year.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

All I see are more risky choices. We will face another rebuild with no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless Whitman can get a proven winner, we are better off doing nothing.

Any hire has risk. Unless you're getting Izzo, Calipari, or someone at their level (which we're not).

Doing nothing is risky, too. Maybe more so.

 

[Obelix]

I don't. I agree with the statement that Fran didn't make the tournament his first four years. He didn't make the field of 64, that is what counts.

Thanks!

But those four years were an outstanding rebuild of an absolutely moribund program (in a totally different position than where Illinois is now), and failure to recognize that indicates a fatal, systemic flaw in analysis of college basketball coaches.

Groce faced a terrible situations as well. Groce also took over a program that was a huge B1G failure (for comparison Fran took over a program that had gone 4-14 and finished 9th in B1G and Groce took over a 6-12 program that had finished 9th in the B1G ans was losing Leonard in the NBA).

Furthermore, every coach will have to replace his senior class (1 class) when taking over (that was 2009 class for Groce), but when Groce took over he had to replace his 2010 class (washed out before Groce), an empty 2012 class, and a 2011 class that had many parts (Ibby, Shaw, Langford) that clearly did not belong. That is 3 1/2 classes, a daunting task.

Groce failed, no doubt, but calling Fran/Iowa an "outstanding rebuild" is the farthest thing from the truth. Iowa and Fran are still pretty mediocre. Even after 7 years, and despite Groce's failure, they are not currently much further ahead of Illinois as a program, if at all.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Groce faced a terrible situations as well.

Not even in the same solar system. Not close to close.

This is not just directed towards you, and this is about the whole post-Dee era, not just Groce's portion of it: Until you understand that the roster has never, ever been the problem, you aren't seeing it.

 

[Obelix]

Now, IMO Fran is garbage. But the hand he was dealt was far worse than what Groce was handed and far worse that what the new Illinois coach is handed next year.

The discussion is with respect to the new coach, this is not a discussion or an argument of Groce vs. Fran, or who has failed more. Groce has failed to the point of making a change, but Fran is far from a successful coaching story.

 

[Obelix]

This is not just directed towards you, and this is about the whole post-Dee era, not just Groce's portion of it: Until you understand that the roster has never, ever been the problem, you aren't seeing it.

Weber is a different story, rather than not start discussion on that again.

But Groce replacing 3 1/2 classes was a daunting task, there is no denying that. Groce has done himself no favors with his coaching but the assertion that roster has not been a problem and have a very talented team is simply a myth. Borderline at best.

Groce failed as recruiter, failed to recruit two of the most critical positions (PG/C) with B1G talent (independent of rankings), his positional balance was poor, and the current talent (independent of rankings) lacks difference making ability.

From a pure talent/ability perspective the current roster is borderline compared to the B1G teams we have played so far.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

From a pure talent/ability perspective the current roster is borderline compared to the B1G teams we have played so far.

We're just not going to agree on this.

Let's both hope I get proven correct by our next coach, shall we?

 

[Illinoy]

Does anyone think someone like a Chris Mack (Xavier) can be persuaded to move on. Yes he can last forever there and be in top 25 purgatory but will they ever be more than a sweet 16 power? Yes it is home for him but if you don't stick your pole in the water you never catch the big fish. Then there's Chris Holtmann at Butler who ironically went to to Taylor University.

 

[radiodj]

Weber is a different story, rather than not start discussion on that again.

But Groce replacing 3 1/2 classes was a daunting task, there is no denying that. Groce has done himself no favors with his coaching but the assertion that roster has not been a problem and have a very talented team is simply a myth. Borderline at best.

Groce failed as recruiter, failed to recruit two of the most critical positions (PG/C) with B1G talent (independent of rankings), his positional balance was poor, and the current talent (independent of rankings) lacks difference making ability.

From a pure talent/ability perspective the current roster is borderline compared to the B1G teams we have played so far.

Perhaps he shouldn't have run off that entire class then.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Perhaps he shouldn't have run off that entire class then.

One of them started for us yesterday, so obviously that didn't happen.

 

[dmac279]

First, just for accuracy, we have 5 senior scholarship players. Unless you believe we should be winning because Alex Austin is also on the team

Second, playing some freshmen does not mean they are winning or they are projected to be really good in the future. Iowa is not a good team, and maybe you see a bright future, but I see a mediocre team with a mediocre coach (Fran). I think they struggle mightily without Jok next year as well.

More importantly, as stated multiple times, Fran did not make NCAA in four straight years, not even with a multiple injuries excuse. if someone said that missing the tournament 4 years in a row before Fran got marginally better did not matter, it would be hard not to make a similar case for Groce.

Third, I'll be very honest. As bad Groce has been, IF there were only two possible options in this world:

Option A: Not fire Groce this year (does not mean that you can't make a firing decision later)
Option B: Fire Groce this year, but substitute him with someone like Fran, who will not smell NCAA in four years, but will get a little better (Fran/Iowa level) in year 5-6 but then not make the tournament again in year 7.

There is no way you choose option B. Come on, would you think it would be acceptable to hire someone like Fran and give him a pass if he misses the tournament in the next 4 years? Of course not.

Fortunately, Illinois has a lot more options than option B, but Fran is neither an example of successful coach nor what Illinois needs right now. JMO.

Your right they're bad, they have same problem we have slow and unathletic. Should be good game Wed.. nothing I would like more is to see Groce succeed. I think we'll do better then Fran or a least should if not I'd keep Groce

 

[PostersLastStand]

I am thinking style of play would determine who I would consider. What style holds up best in conference play, then tournament play (NCAA). What style makes blue bloods WANT to come here? Then what style lends itself to consistent NCAA appearances and deep runs in the NCAAs. And what style do I want to watch. I don't see anyone mentioned that fits, up tempo, pressing, lock down defense and to impose that style on the other team.

 

[Kajagoogoo]

Stephen Silas w/his Dad, Paul as an assistant. Whitman WILL think out of the box.

What happened to the Larry Brown connection? That was your previous hint.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I am thinking style of play would determine who I would consider. What style holds up best in conference play, then tournament play (NCAA). What style makes blue bloods WANT to come here? Then what style lends itself to consistent NCAA appearances and deep runs in the NCAAs. And what style do I want to watch. I don't see anyone mentioned that fits, up tempo, pressing, lock down defense and to impose that style on the other team.

Regarding the bolded, there's no evidence to support you have to do all or even any of those things to be a good team in conference play, NCAAT, recruiting, etc. And there are coaches in this pool who are up-tempo with a pressing style! Look into Kevin Keatts.

To discuss the style point more, let's look into the tempo part. You mentioned NCAAT, so looking at last year's Final Four pool: Villanova was 267th in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40) last year and won. Other final four squads -- Syracuse 322nd in tempo, UNC 94th, OU 93rd. Clearly different styles work. Going back to 2015, adj tempo #s in the final four: 112, 347, 268, 271.

To extend further on tempo, of the candidates we have discussed here, here are the coaches who have season(s) with adjusted tempo in top 100:

Steve Forbes (2/2 seasons)
Kevin Keatts (3/3)
Eric Musselman (2/2)
Buzz Williams (1/3)
Will Wade (1/2)
Chris Mack (2/8)
Greg McDermott (2/7)

What matters is efficiency (i.e. points per possession) on both ends, and that comes down to scheme and execution. There is no right answer for basketball, you have to recruit to a system and execute it well. That's not to say up-tempo does not work -- looking at the teams this year going up-tempo will show you that, but the opposite is true as well.

 

[TCTORNADO]

What happened to the Larry Brown connection? That was your previous hint.

Good to see you're paying attention. Charlotte Bobcats, actually Silas replaced Brown as HC. Silas still lives in Charlotte area.

 

[Obelix]

I am thinking style of play would determine who I would consider. What style holds up best in conference play, then tournament play (NCAA). What style makes blue bloods WANT to come here? Then what style lends itself to consistent NCAA appearances and deep runs in the NCAAs. And what style do I want to watch. I don't see anyone mentioned that fits, up tempo, pressing, lock down defense and to impose that style on the other team.

I think deep down you want recruiting, not necessarily style of play. Style of play is one of many parameters that may help recruiting, but unless you are very strong recruiter who can close the deal, you will not get the horses no matter the style of play.

 

[Obelix]

Does anyone think someone like a Chris Mack (Xavier) can be persuaded to move on. Yes he can last forever there and be in top 25 purgatory but will they ever be more than a sweet 16 power? Yes it is home for him but if you don't stick your pole in the water you never catch the big fish. Then there's Chris Holtmann at Butler who ironically went to to Taylor University.

Big NO to Holtmann, but Chris Mack is someone I would definitely approach, in my top 3. Can he be persuaded? Not sure, but definitely below the group of coaches that I do not believe there is any chance they will move to Illinois.

 

[Captain Bubbles]

I do not see Chris Mack leaving Xavier. I do not see Chris Holtmann leaving Butler. I think both coaches are satisfied where they are at.

 

[Kajagoogoo]

Good to see you're paying attention. Charlotte Bobcats, actually Silas replaced Brown as HC. Silas still lives in Charlotte area.

What makes you think Whitman would look at Silas? And what makes him an intriguing candidate?