2017 Coaching Carousel

[OrangeKrus28]

This post is not going to be popular opinion. I've gone back and forth and I've come back to thinking Groce gets one more year. My reasoning is roster balance. We are set to return only 7 scholarship players next year, and the 4(+?) recruits. General consensus on the board is we keep Pickett and DMW no matter what. Frazier and Tilmon are question marks. If Groce is fired and we lose both of them our roster stands to have 9 scholarship players. That's also not even counting potential transfers if Groce is let go, or just because guys want a change of scenery. While a new coach would hopefully be able to come in and grab a couple guys, he'd have a bunch of holes to fill and wouldn't even have a full complement of scholarship players, or he'd be in the place of taking fringe recruits like Tate who bust their !!! for our Illini but are limited.

However, if Groce is fired after next year, there would be more scholarship players. Guys from this year's sophomore class who might be likely to transfer if Groce is fired this year, would be going into their senior year and probably more inclined to stay than sit out a year. A guy like Tilmon might go pro, but if he needs another year it's in his best interest to stay and play one more year as opposed to transfer and sit. The new coach would have a fuller roster and would have a year to recruit to those 4-6 new openings from this current sophomore class, as opposed to having to fill them immediately upon his hire.

I know people have argued to keep Groce for the quality of his class. My argument is based on quantity. I think it's just asking too much for a guy coming in to have to fill that many spots when he could have a fuller roster and only have to fill a couple after next year. With the potential roster hits of Groce being fired after this year, I think it sets us back less if we wait till after next year, even if we have to go through another season of crap. Or maybe in that extra season Groce saves himself.

I'm sure there's a good counterargument out there, so I'm interested in what you guys have to say.

The counterarguement is this year. Look what Groce has done with a senior-heavy team. The team plays poor defense for extended stretches. The team has no identity. The team doesn't seem like they play together. The team is soft. There are no injuries up to this point and what do we have to show for it? A 13-9 record and no marquee victories on our resume. Yes, we have VCU, BYU, NC State in the non-conference. None are marquee wins but all these teams may be bubble teams. In conference, we've beaten 2 other bubble teams and one young team in Iowa. No marquee wins on this schedule. This is a microcosm of John Groce's tenure. Besides for beating #1 Indiana, he hasn't had many other upset wins against highly ranked teams.

So, what do you think happens next year? Maybe the freshman are talented but they are still freshman. So, if this team can't play defense, what makes you think next year's will? Next year's team won't have Malcolm Hill to bail them out. Their top returning players will be Leron Black, Michael Finke, and JCL, none of which have shown the ability to be leaders either vocally or by example. They all have their deficiencies(Leron fouls a lot, Finke is deficient on defense, and JCL is also deficient on defense along with being too 1-dimensional).

Next year will be the exact same thing. Mediocre play, poor defense, lack of consistency, and lack of proper coaching to fix these mistakes.

 

[The Pontiff]

Krystowiak, would be good choice with talent, not sure recruiting Chicago?



Lavin, Would be good with talent and recruiting, known name/record/recruiting and AAU world



Martin from SC...Known coach, but not sure his track record and traits equate to wins/recruits at Illinois



Martin from Cal...Recruiter, coach (meh), known within circles, should help in cities STL and Chicago as well as west coast now maybe?



Kruger 2.0, Great choice again, knows recruiting circles, coaches like hell, might be open to leaving Okie, doubt we could really get him though.



Keatts: Another up and comer, can the program and fans wait some more?



Miller, could be got, good coach, recruiting circles getting bigger and can always throw the name around if need be...



Drew: Best Candidate all things considered, bring Powell with him and retain Walker to keep recruits in hand

Don't get Bryce Drew as the best candidate over even most of the guys mentioned on this list.

First, I'm going to make the assumption that Illinois will spend what it takes to get the guy JW wants. I don't think they'll spend silly money, i.e., $5MM+/yr. But I don't think anyone coaching in college basketball today who isn't (a) at a blue blood, (b) at UL, UTx, Nova, UConn, Ariz, or (c) in the B1G would be unattainable or out of his price range.

With Bryce, I think he'll need to prove that he can do it at the P5 level before he becomes a first tier candidate for an Illinois-type job. His Valpo tenure was solid with four Horizon league championships but he was 0-2 in the NCAAs. And so far at Vandy, though granted it's early, the team is not performing better than how Stallings left it.

As for the rest of the list, I tend to agree.

Lavin would be interesting - he seemed to rejuvenate SJU before the parting of ways and is still relatively young and I think now cancer-free. But I don't think in my first tier.

Kruger, while a great coach, feels too much like a redo and I think Illinois would have to overpay.

Archie would be in that first tier, along with Altman, Marshall, Cronin, Buzz and Bennett, and not necessarily in that order. Krystowiak, CMartin and Keatts would be in that second tier, though I'll admit I'm intrigued with Keatts. As thoroughly discussed already, his experience on paper seems lacking for taking such a big leap, but you wonder if he has this "it" factor that would trump the experience gap and make him a preferred second tier guy.

 

[Old Number 51]

Well......... After giving JG and the boys several games (years) to prove me wrong, I've come to a conclusion. In my opinion we have the worst coaching staff in the Big Ten.

Not sure if this is the right thread, but has anyone seen another team in country who has played this unorganized or uninspired? I watch quite a bit and I've not seen anything like this train wreck that Illinois basketball has become.

If JG is still coaching after this year I will lose all faith in JW too

 

[dmac279]

The counterarguement is this year. Look what Groce has done with a senior-heavy team. The team plays poor defense for extended stretches. The team has no identity. The team doesn't seem like they play together. The team is soft. There are no injuries up to this point and what do we have to show for it? A 13-9 record and no marquee victories on our resume. Yes, we have VCU, BYU, NC State in the non-conference. None are marquee wins but all these teams may be bubble teams. In conference, we've beaten 2 other bubble teams and one young team in Iowa. No marquee wins on this schedule. This is a microcosm of John Groce's tenure. Besides for beating #1 Indiana, he hasn't had many other upset wins against highly ranked teams.

So, what do you think happens next year? Maybe the freshman are talented but they are still freshman. So, if this team can't play defense, what makes you think next year's will? Next year's team won't have Malcolm Hill to bail them out. Their top returning players will be Leron Black, Michael Finke, and JCL, none of which have shown the ability to be leaders either vocally or by example. They all have their deficiencies(Leron fouls a lot, Finke is deficient on defense, and JCL is also deficient on defense along with being too 1-dimensional).

Next year will be the exact same thing. Mediocre play, poor defense, lack of consistency, and lack of proper coaching to fix these mistakes.

This is probably the worst veteran team I've ever seen. They're just not ready to compete and that's all I ask

 

[hermie1985]

I do trust that Whitman will weigh all things because he is basically trading a pretty darn good incoming class for a coach. He will work the back channels and decide. The right coach might even hold a recruit or two.

It was pretty obvious that Mike Thomas was limited to Ohio. Whitman can know pretty fast if the bigger names will take his call.

 

[ChrisNMattoon]

The fact its even a debate whether or not he comes back is laughable. Grace has been terrible since Year 1. He was a bad hire then and has proved it over and over. Put your big boy pants on, quit worrying about Frazier and Tilmon and go hire a freaking coach who can win. Some of you will make same excuse next year, "But, his players were only Freshman....and they're getting better....we got to keep him for another year..... blah blah blah.."

 

[gibb52]

I have had this same thought too. I think if I am JW I pull JG aside now and tell him that he will be back next year if and only if he agrees to replace his staff. I think he need s to keep Walker but the rest need to go. If I am JW I would want the final say in who he wants to add as they need to have significant Xs and Os background. I have no problem in keeping Groce as I think his positives out weigh the negatives as the leader of the program.

I have to believe he is depending on his assistants to teach and prepare his player considering the amount of time he is recruiting. I see nothing positive from keeping Ford and Parham. JG's failure is in trusting and placing all of his faith in his assistant coaches. Like with Zook I don't know that this would work but if I am JW I would certainly make sure I like one of the new assistants enough to let him be the D McClain to hold the team together when JG is fired the following year.

This mess is so screwed up none of us has a clue of how to fix the problem. We all just want to see our team win and not play like scared children on TV.

What positives does Groce bring to the program? He's a nice guy? That's it as far as I can see. Mediocre recruiter. Sub par game prep, sub par bench coach.

He gets the balance of the season. Unless we are solidly in by the end of the B1G schedule it should be over.

The consternation on here about 1 recruiting class baffles me. We don't have John Wall, Jabari Parker and Blake Griffin coming in here. If someone decommits then so be it. Get a better coach and we'll be better off in 2-3 yrs. Keep JG and we will remain a 2nd division B1G program. He's done nothing to deserve next year. Nothing.

 

[TEYPAY]

NOTE -- even if we keep Groce for the recruits... if he is gone after the next year... who says they won't transfer? I don't think you can keep someone just for recruits if their X and O's aren't up to snuff. You might get a one or two year decent year (10 seed)... but what happens if he doesn't get those type of recruits EVERY year....

 

[PlayAZ]

Buzz Williams and certainly Bennett may be possibilities along with Marshall.....first 2 are more legit $$$ guys I think, Marshall still seems like more $$$ to me to leave where he is...also the assistant at Gonzaga might be good also although doubtful due to lack of HC experience...

He is and has been the number 1 recruiter in Europe for them....recruit Europe with the university level of education and admission standards...then if Chicago is light got a lot of talent either way....certainly has been working for Gonzaga anyway?

 

[MrOizo]

The fact its even a debate whether or not he comes back is laughable. Grace has been terrible since Year 1. He was a bad hire then and has proved it over and over. Put your big boy pants on, quit worrying about Frazier and Tilmon and go hire a freaking coach who can win. Some of you will make same excuse next year, "But, his players were only Freshman....and they're getting better....we got to keep him for another year..... blah blah blah.."

Totally agree. How much more would you enjoy watching Illinois next year if we had a guy like Keats developing our guys and you could see cohesion, signs of a healthy locker room, growth over the course of the year, and a couple players make a tremendous jump.

Notice, no mention of Frazier or Tilmon who may bolt. Tilmon would know doubt, I still hold out hope for Frazier. Opportunity would still be enormous for both.

Not to put to much on the next coach, but we can go out there and get a leader. Let's do it, I would be so into Illinois b-ball if that happens.

 

[Wittsdream]

2-7-13!

THAT date, the high point of the Groce era, IMO, is the ONLY reason he is still in Champaign.

Want more numbers?

2-7
2-7
4-5
2-7
3-6

Those are his starts in B1G play through the first half of the conference slate during his tenure.

A record of 13-32! And only 1 of those teams rebounded from such a horrid start to even reach the .500 mark by the end of conference play.

This current team would likely need to go 7-2 the rest of the way to sniff the NCAA tournament. Short of accomplishing that feat, and playing a little devil's advocate, the B1G does not have a dominant TOP FOUR this season, so I can envision the upcoming conference tournament being one of the rare times that one of the lower seeds might actually win it.

With his job on the line, and observing the low morale on the sidelines, does a single person in that organization - from Whitman on down to the team manager - really believe any of those scenarios is a potential outcome at this point? I don't think so.

Conference coaches have his teams scouted like an NSA database, so predictable is his strategizing on both ends of the floor.

Just because you're a GOOD guy doesn't mean you're the RIGHT guy!

 

[ole 99]

I have had this same thought too. I think if I am JW I pull JG aside now and tell him that he will be back next year if and only if he agrees to replace his staff. I think he need s to keep Walker but the rest need to go. If I am JW I would want the final say in who he wants to add as they need to have significant Xs and Os background. I have no problem in keeping Groce as I think his positives out weigh the negatives as the leader of the program.

I have to believe he is depending on his assistants to teach and prepare his player considering the amount of time he is recruiting. I see nothing positive from keeping Ford and Parham. JG's failure is in trusting and placing all of his faith in his assistant coaches. Like with Zook I don't know that this would work but if I am JW I would certainly make sure I like one of the new assistants enough to let him be the D McClain to hold the team together when JG is fired the following year.

This mess is so screwed up none of us has a clue of how to fix the problem. We all just want to see our team win and not play like scared children on TV.

You start fixing this mess by getting a new basketball coach at the end of the season. If you have force a guy to replace his assistants, as you advocate, he's already failed. Under no objective analysis does JG deserve to be back next year.

 

[GortTheRobot]

You start fixing this mess by getting a new basketball coach at the end of the season. If you have force a guy to replace his assistants, as you advocate, he's already failed. Under no objective analysis does JG deserve to be back next year.

Agree. I will also go a step further, although I'm repeating myself: Even if we manage to get in he should still go. Squeaking in will only prolong our firm position as a bubble team each and every year. I have no faith in his ability to do anything with a new recruiting class. I know I'm very pessimistic right now, but I din't get there by choice.

 

[PlayAZ]

Agreed: Groce should be gone (hell do it now) March comes into play for contracts/buyouts for some as well I believe....

New NAME coach, new NAME PROVEN coach, teach, win, recruit...new coach will be given at least a 5 year contract due to NAME....they will have too...so he will win with Groce highest rated class of recruits. That said, Groce would not win with his highest ranked class, we are sure of this right?

Hell get progressive and hire Becky Hammons to coach the team. She has the chops and has the pedigree. Think we all can agree Popovich can coach right, seems to have players respect and want to play for him....gotta rub off right....lol, okay maybe a stretch but damn...

 

[ILHoff]

Totally agree. How much more would you enjoy watching Illinois next year if we had a guy like Keats developing our guys and you could see cohesion, signs of a healthy locker room, growth over the course of the year, and a couple players make a tremendous jump.

Notice, no mention of Frazier or Tilmon who may bolt. Tilmon would know doubt, I still hold out hope for Frazier. Opportunity would still be enormous for both.

Not to put to much on the next coach, but we can go out there and get a leader. Let's do it, I would be so into Illinois b-ball if that happens.

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm confused with the Keatts bandwagon. He's only been a head coach for 2 and a half years. He has zero tournament wins and zero wins against any high major programs. I think UNC-W has played ONE high major program this year and got blown out by Clemson. His tenure at Louisville was during the stripper scandal and for a guy that was heavily involved in their recruiting efforts, it would be obtuse to think he didn't know what was going on over a 3 year period. He's had a great turnaround at UNC-W, but I don't see his style of play translating to the Big Ten (that was actually one of my main concerns with going after Shaka). I just feel like there are other candidates with much better resumes. And those of you that love Keatts please realize this is not an attack on your opinions as I feel Keatts may eventually blow up. I just feel that he's a very risky hire.

 

[jmilt7]

My biggest fear is that our AD does nothing, and gives Groce another year. I honestly don't think I could take another year. I just want a relevant/competing team.

I honestly don't think he will be given another year, but, I too am afraid this may happen. Stranger things…. So on the one hand, I want the team to win all its games but on the other that would mean Groce has a better chance to stay. Which I don't want. So I am torn. I hate myself.

 

[CAHALL15]

I have had this same thought too. I think if I am JW I pull JG aside now and tell him that he will be back next year if and only if he agrees to replace his staff. I think he need s to keep Walker but the rest need to go. If I am JW I would want the final say in who he wants to add as they need to have significant Xs and Os background. I have no problem in keeping Groce as I think his positives out weigh the negatives as the leader of the program.

I have to believe he is depending on his assistants to teach and prepare his player considering the amount of time he is recruiting. I see nothing positive from keeping Ford and Parham. JG's failure is in trusting and placing all of his faith in his assistant coaches. Like with Zook I don't know that this would work but if I am JW I would certainly make sure I like one of the new assistants enough to let him be the D McClain to hold the team together when JG is fired the following year.

This mess is so screwed up none of us has a clue of how to fix the problem. We all just want to see our team win and not play like scared children on TV.

What positives would allow him to stay? I guess he's somewhat of a nice guy even though he's not totally fair with local media when asked simple questions. A nice guy also isn't a reason to keep someone as a head coach, either.

Why keep Groce around if you know you're going to fire him the following year? Additionally, no one can blame the assistant coaches for losses, that's on Groce. They are doing what he's instructed them to do. Nobody praises the assistant coaches when we win so the same should hold true for losses. Groce hired those guys so it was up to him to replace them if he saw deficiencies which he has not.

This is a mess and the only way this thing gets fixed is starting over with a clean slate. Keeping Groce around for more mediocrity does nothing positive. I hope the recruits stay, but if some leave with Groce, that's fine because none of them are program changers that are going to lead to immediate results.

 

[Trakis]

What positives would allow him to stay? I guess he's somewhat of a nice guy even though he's not totally fair with local media when asked simple questions. A nice guy also isn't a reason to keep someone as a head coach, either.

Why keep Groce around if you know you're going to fire him the following year? Additionally, no one can blame the assistant coaches for losses, that's on Groce. They are doing what he's instructed them to do. Nobody praises the assistant coaches when we win so the same should hold true for losses. Groce hired those guys so it was up to him to replace them if he saw deficiencies which he has not.

This is a mess and the only way this thing gets fixed is starting over with a clean slate. Keeping Groce around for more mediocrity does nothing positive. I hope the recruits stay, but if some leave with Groce, that's fine because none of them are program changers that are going to lead to immediate results.

The only positives to take away are his 2017 class he's put together. But that's the only one I can think of.

 

[jmilt7]

Have we discussed a midseason firing? Why not do it, why not put Groce out of his misery.

http://writingillini.com/2017/01/29/illinois-basketball-illini-plans-future-head-coach/

 

[gibb52]

I think he personally is a good face for the program and honest. I also think he is an excellent evaluator and recruiter. However you still have to win and put players in the NBA to gain the respect needed to get those types of players. The fact that we have been close says that. The draw back is the on court dvelopement and in game coaching along with prep. That is what I am referring to. He needs a staff that can support and fill the gap that he can't. Basically from my viewpoint we have 4 coaches who can recruit but no one who can teach a lick.

I want JG gone to but I am offering a stop gap solution. Trust me you do not want to see the mess we will have if we fire Grove land staff, then lose all of these recruits. It will be ugly for another 5 years and maybe worse. Just sad.

No it will not. The idea that the right guy, or even the mostly right guy will need 5 yrs to turn this around is simply incorrect.

The right guy will struggle in year 1, but signs of progress will show. By year 2 we can be back in the Tourney and by year 3 be nationally relevant again.

 

[3 point girl]

Article in the Dallas Morning News today about Larry Brown wanting to coach again. He has been visiting Kansas & now on his way to Maryland to hang out. I know he brings a lot of question marks but he is the big name type of hire that would keep the recruits we have & bring in other highly rated players. Get a young coach to be the coach in waiting like he did with Tim ans sign him for 3 years.

 

[IlliniOllie]

My biggest fear is that our AD does nothing, and gives Groce another year. I honestly don't think I could take another year. I just want a relevant/competing team.

I'll worry about this too - right up until the firing is official - but it's getting harder and harder to imagine a scenario where this happens. Aside from everything else, can you imagine the I-Fund renewals and season ticket renewals this spring and summer if they announce that Groce is being retained? It'll be a bloodbath. They might be playing in front of crowds next year like it's the 1970s all over again.

I just don't see how a guy that embraced #WeWillWin would keep Groce around after the previous 5 years' body of work.

 

[MrOizo]

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm confused with the Keatts bandwagon. He's only been a head coach for 2 and a half years. He has zero tournament wins and zero wins against any high major programs. I think UNC-W has played ONE high major program this year and got blown out by Clemson. His tenure at Louisville was during the stripper scandal and for a guy that was heavily involved in their recruiting efforts, it would be obtuse to think he didn't know what was going on over a 3 year period. He's had a great turnaround at UNC-W, but I don't see his style of play translating to the Big Ten (that was actually one of my main concerns with going after Shaka). I just feel like there are other candidates with much better resumes. And those of you that love Keatts please realize this is not an attack on your opinions as I feel Keatts may eventually blow up. I just feel that he's a very risky hire.

Speaking for myself, JW will need to assess and make the calls with support from whomever he trusts. You could be right, I was just picking a name out of a hat and Keatts could be unqualified for sure. I'm not getting into coaching candidates too much, personally.

 

[gibb52]

Larry Brown as head coach, Great! Sign me up!

Kelvin Sampson and Dave Bliss as assistants? Even better!

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

I have had this same thought too. I think if I am JW I pull JG aside now and tell him that he will be back next year if and only if he agrees to replace his staff. I think he need s to keep Walker but the rest need to go. If I am JW I would want the final say in who he wants to add as they need to have significant Xs and Os background. I have no problem in keeping Groce as I think his positives out weigh the negatives as the leader of the program.

I have to believe he is depending on his assistants to teach and prepare his player considering the amount of time he is recruiting. I see nothing positive from keeping Ford and Parham. JG's failure is in trusting and placing all of his faith in his assistant coaches. Like with Zook I don't know that this would work but if I am JW I would certainly make sure I like one of the new assistants enough to let him be the D McClain to hold the team together when JG is fired the following year.

This mess is so screwed up none of us has a clue of how to fix the problem. We all just want to see our team win and not play like scared children on TV.

It's really not that hard to figure out, honestly.

The coach is bad. He's been bad for five years. You get a new one who is better and the kids will stay. If they don't, you get new kids. He wasn't going to do anything with the ones coming anyway.