2017 Coaching Carousel

[Golfer63]

I love how some on this board want Cuanzo Martin... His team is just as much on the bubble as we are. I am hoping that this team continues to fight and get wins as the season comes to a close.

Everybody is high on his recruiting abilities and the fact that he is from the St. Louis area, which people think will give him a huge upper hand in recruiting both St. Louis and Chicago. He is also African American, which I'm sure will appease the Irvins.

His underachievement at Cal is certainly not being ignored and is a concern, but many believe he has a much higher ceiling at a program like Illinois. The other concern is that Mizzou will probably try to snag him up, which will be a huge concern, because they will suddenly become a major player again with St. Louis recruits. As much as we like to trash Mizzou and call them our little brother and point to the fact that they have never been to the Final Four, you can't deny that there is a ton of potential with their program, which has been evident in years past.

 

[Renegade19]

No. See: every other post about body of work vs. recency bias.

If you look at it objectively there are way to many variables that were not controllable to rate the entire body of work. Some of the data indicates that Groce failed miserably in certain aspects of his job. Some of it indicates he was the recipient of some real unusual happenings. IF his boss thinks that he's learned from the mistakes in the areas that he can control and improved, he'll be retained. My .02 worth.

 

[BirdDog9048]

Everybody is high on his recruiting abilities and the fact that he is from {insert place near Illinois}, which people think will give him a huge upper hand in recruiting both {insert same place} and Chicago.

Aren't we currently discussing firing a coach with that description?

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

Aren't we currently discussing firing a coach with that description?

A worse coach who proved the recruiting to only be half true, yes. That said, I'm not sold on Cuonzo either.

 

[champaignchris]

If John Groce is a mutual fund, and that fund has underperformed the benchmark every year for five straight years, you sell that fund. If you look at one quarter, and see it doing well, you don't then forget about the five previous years -- you sell the fund. Even if, in the two weeks right before you sit down to re-balance your portfolio, the fund suddenly goes up a few bucks per share, you STILL SELL THE FUND.

Don't use a recency bias to think that THIS TIME things are different, or that he's suddenly figured things out. He's coaching the same players in the exact same way he has for five years. We've seen the results over the long haul. Don't let a rare winning streak convince you that anything has changed. If it takes until his first recruiting class reaches the end of their senior season to have them finally play hard, he has failed at his job. SELL, SELL, SELL!

I question the conclusion that he underperformed in '13 or '14 considering the talent the previous coach left him, or in '16 considering all the injuries. Yes '15 and '17 (so far) have been major disappointments.

It's more like a stock that performed as expected for two years, drastically underperformed the next year, had its factory hit by a tornado the next, and then underperformed for the first three quarters of year five before appearing to recover a bit in the fourth.

It's still probably a "sell" barring a crazy rally on the last closing bell of the quarter, but it's less cut and dry than you're making it out to be.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

I question the conclusion that he underperformed in '13 or '14 considering the talent the previous coach left him, or in '16 considering all the injuries. Yes '15 and '17 (so far) have been major disappointments.

It's more like a stock that performed as expected for two years, drastically underperformed the next year, had its factory hit by a tornado the next, and then underperformed for the first three quarters of year five before appearing to recover a bit in the fourth.

It's still probably a "sell" barring a crazy rally on the last closing bell of the quarter, but it's less cut and dry than you're making it out to be.

This is revisionist history. Everyone sounded pretty much the same as this year: x player is coming in, y player is going to growing into his spot, and we're going to make the tournament! There were a few small question marks, but the lack of expectations you're suggesting is simply not true.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I believe that hug says it all. If you are preparing to fire someone, especially a guy you like personally, you try to distance yourself. I can't see how others can see it any other way, unless they are interjecting their own personal desires. Not saying that it can't go the other way in the next two weeks but at this point, I feel Groce is safe.

 

[Golfer63]

Aren't we currently discussing firing a coach with that description?

With Martin, they are pointing to the fact that he has had decent success at P5 schools who are perceived to have less potential than Illinois. (Multiple tourney appearances including a S16 at Tennessee. Tourney appearance plus landing multiple 5 stars at Cal)

Not saying he is the guy we should hire, but this is why people are intrigued by him.

 

[CAHALL15]

If John Groce is a mutual fund, and that fund has underperformed the benchmark every year for five straight years, you sell that fund. If you look at one quarter, and see it doing well, you don't then forget about the five previous years -- you sell the fund. Even if, in the two weeks right before you sit down to re-balance your portfolio, the fund suddenly goes up a few bucks per share, you STILL SELL THE FUND.

Don't use a recency bias to think that THIS TIME things are different, or that he's suddenly figured things out. He's coaching the same players in the exact same way he has for five years. We've seen the results over the long haul. Don't let a rare winning streak convince you that anything has changed. If it takes until his first recruiting class reaches the end of their senior season to have them finally play hard, he has failed at his job. SELL, SELL, SELL!

This. Even if Illinois wins out, Groce's conference record at Illinois is still 38-52. I'm done with him.

 

[ILL in IA]

Agreed, but if this little streak morphs into the NCAA after a run at the BTT, we'll get a chance to see this next class under Groce. JW clearly is rooting for Groce to right the ship, according to that hug.


oops..."their"...missed the edit window!

It was a good hug, but maybe JW whispered "I know it was you Fredo, you broke my heart" ....

 

[TownieMatt]

I believe that hug says it all. If you are preparing to fire someone, especially a guy you like personally, you try to distance yourself. I can't see how others can see it any other way, unless they are interjecting their own personal desires. Not saying that it can't go the other way in the next two weeks but at this point, I feel Groce is safe.

Are we really reading into the hug? Stop it.

Let's keep this analytical: If Groce makes the tournament, I think JW retains him. If he doesn't but get's close, I think it's a toss-up (probably depends on how JW feels about his other options). If we blow a tire down the stretch, he gone.

 

[BirdDog9048]

A worse coach who proved the recruiting to only be half true, yes. That said, I'm not sold on Cuonzo either.

Honestly, I'm not really sure about that. Cuonzo had a Cal team last year with 3 5-star players (Bird, Rabb, Brown) and got exactly 0 NCAA tournament wins, and they are just as bubbly as we are this year (with 2 of those 5-stars still there).

 

[ILL in IA]

I'm curious on what a lot of posters expectations were for this year. It seemed like a lot of goals were to just get back into the tournament. IF that was the case, and the start of the B1G season was bad, but finished strong and made the tournament, did the team not hit your expectations?

 

[skyIdub]

It was a good hug, but maybe JW whispered "I know it was you Fredo, you broke my heart" ....

Hahahahahaha! POTD!:clappy:

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I'm curious on what a lot of posters expectations were for this year. It seemed like a lot of goals were to just get back into the tournament. IF that was the case, and the start of the B1G season was bad, but finished strong and made the tournament, did the team not hit your expectations?

We weren't really competitive against any of the top level teams we played. I don't buy into the "the big ten is down" narrative because of how deep the league is (only one team outside of KenPom top 100), but we didn't look good against the top teams on our schedule, and yet again looked ATROCIOUS in January. 5 straight years of bad Januarys? Pretty concerning trend, you can't start every conference slate in that sort of a hole.

As far as I'm concerned, we didn't buck any of the bad habits, trends, or schematic issues we've had throughout Groce's tenure, and that's what I was really looking for this year, in addition to a tournament.

 

[whovous]

I have a question for those who advocate firing Groce, i.e., for the clear majority of those who have posted in this thread.

If firing Groce means your only choices are Cuonzo or Keatts, do you still want to fire Groce? I realize this question is hypothetical in the extreme, but comparing Groce to a mutual fund is just as far out there.

Who wants to fire Groce but will keep him if the only replacement choices are Martin or Keatts?

 

[Berg88]

This is revisionist history. Everyone sounded pretty much the same as this year: x player is coming in, y player is going to growing into his spot, and we're going to make the tournament! There were a few small question marks, but the lack of expectations you're suggesting is simply not true.

I disagree pretty adamantly. I don't think 13 or 14 can be considered failing to meet expectations. 13 was nearly a sweet sixteen in his first year. 14 was a COMPLETE mess of a roster with Bertrand, Tracy, and Egwu being the only guys on the team who had played a single minute for the Illini before. And we were still probably one basket away from a tournament. 15 was bad, no excuses. 16 was bad with a remarkable amount of bad luck. 17 is still to be determined as far as I'm concerned. I think the biggest issue is that a lot of people who, at the start of the season, would have taken 9-9 and a tournament birth have now decided that 9-9 with a tournament birth is not good enough because we were once 4-9.

 

[champaignchris]

I disagree pretty adamantly. I don't think 13 or 14 can be considered failing to meet expectations. 13 was nearly a sweet sixteen in his first year. 14 was a COMPLETE mess of a roster with Bertrand, Tracy, and Egwu being the only guys on the team who had played a single minute for the Illini before. And we were still probably one basket away from a tournament. 15 was bad, no excuses. 16 was bad with a remarkable amount of bad luck. 17 is still to be determined as far as I'm concerned. I think the biggest issue is that a lot of people who, at the start of the season, would have taken 9-9 and a tournament birth have now decided that 9-9 with a tournament birth is not good enough because we were once 4-9.

I was just about to post exactly this.

That said, if I were the AD and had to make the decision right freaking now, I'd probably fire Groce assuming I was relatively confident in my ability to attract someone better.

Fortunately (for us all) I'm not the AD and the decision doesn't have to be made right freaking now.

 

[RichBradIllini]

I question the conclusion that he underperformed in '13 or '14 considering the talent the previous coach left him, or in '16 considering all the injuries. Yes '15 and '17 (so far) have been major disappointments.

It's more like a stock that performed as expected for two years, drastically underperformed the next year, had its factory hit by a tornado the next, and then underperformed for the first three quarters of year five before appearing to recover a bit in the fourth.

It's still probably a "sell" barring a crazy rally on the last closing bell of the quarter, but it's less cut and dry than you're making it out to be.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

I disagree pretty adamantly. I don't think 13 or 14 can be considered failing to meet expectations. 13 was nearly a sweet sixteen in his first year. 14 was a COMPLETE mess of a roster with Bertrand, Tracy, and Egwu being the only guys on the team who had played a single minute for the Illini before. And we were still probably one basket away from a tournament. 15 was bad, no excuses. 16 was bad with a remarkable amount of bad luck. 17 is still to be determined as far as I'm concerned. I think the biggest issue is that a lot of people who, at the start of the season, would have taken 9-9 and a tournament birth have now decided that 9-9 with a tournament birth is not good enough because we were once 4-9.

I wanted him gone two years ago, so that wouldn't ever have been good enough for me.

I still disagree. Whether you think the roster was right or not, there was such a fundamental and obvious lack of development and identity through his whole tenure here. There was never a strategy. You could see it so quickly.

Backing into a tournament after fumbling around for years will NEVER be enough for me as an ILLINOIS fan, and it shouldn't be for you either.

He's gone and I am very confident Whitman will land a slam dunk hire. This is a desirable job and the miserable AD that made it not so is gone.

 

[ILL in IA]

I wanted him gone two years ago, so that wouldn't ever have been good enough for me.

I still disagree. Whether you think the roster was right or not, there was such a fundamental and obvious lack of development and identity through his whole tenure here. There was never a strategy. You could see it so quickly.

Backing into a tournament after fumbling around for years will NEVER be enough for me as an ILLINOIS fan, and it shouldn't be for you either.

He's gone and I am very confident Whitman will land a slam dunk hire. This is a desirable job and the miserable AD that made it not so is gone.

What would be good enough for you? I'm not calling you out, I'm always curious when someone sounds so much against a coach, what type of year would change your mind on them.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I have a question for those who advocate firing Groce, i.e., for the clear majority of those who have posted in this thread.

If firing Groce means your only choices are Cuonzo or Keatts, do you still want to fire Groce? I realize this question is hypothetical in the extreme, but comparing Groce to a mutual fund is just as far out there.

Who wants to fire Groce but will keep him if the only replacement choices are Martin or Keatts?

I would happily roll the dice on Keatts. Far more iffy on Cuonzo.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

What would be good enough for you? I'm not calling you out, I'm always curious when someone sounds so much against a coach, what type of year would change your mind on them.

Honestly, I don't think he could for me at this point. It's like I and others have posted: body of work.

And by that I don't just mean win-loss record. I mean player improvement, program improvement, in game coaching, identity and strategy... it's all been lacking throughout. It's why last year's injuries didn't hold water as an excuse for me, because those other metrics were all lacking. My eyes said that when the team got healthy again, the problems would still linger.

That's why ending on a small win streak is not enough for me to overcome all the rest. I don't see it as sustainable. Even bad teams luck into hot streaks at times. We shouldn't have to wait TWO YEARS to hit a two game streak in the Big Ten, much less have such long periods of sucking that it qualifies as a "streak."

 

[BirdDog9048]

Honestly, I don't think he could for me at this point. ...

Hypothetically, would winning the BTT and a National Championship do it for you?

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

Hypothetically, would winning the BTT and a National Championship do it for you?

Sure, but is that really a serious question? No one on this board can honestly think there is even a shot of that happening.