2017 Coaching Carousel

[OrangeAndBlues]

You're not getting his point. You're speaking in absolutes. There is zero guarantee you don't wind up with a Z list pick. While at least most of us are Whitman fans, he has yet to compete in a carousel and secure a top coaching target. There is nothing that proves to us that he is a major draw to candidates as an AD, and nothing that proves he will secure his top target 100% of the time. I am all for appreciating what he has done, but treating him as some man amongst boys in the AD ranks is being a little unrealistic, considering how green he is at the D1 level.

None of that is preventing me from wanting to make a change, but one should not speak as though anything bad that happened in a coaching search under a previous AD can't possibly happen under JW.

I understand he's green, but the last failure was because of how undesirable the AD was. Lack of experience wasn't the issue. I get his point, I just think it's so far outside the realm of possibility that it really doesn't matter.

 

[Obelix]

You're not getting his point. You're speaking in absolutes. There is zero guarantee you don't wind up with a Z list pick. While at least most of us are Whitman fans, he has yet to compete in a carousel and secure a top coaching target. There is nothing that proves to us that he is a major draw to candidates as an AD, and nothing that proves he will secure his top target 100% of the time. I am all for appreciating what he has done, but treating him as some man amongst boys in the AD ranks is being a little unrealistic, considering how green he is at the D1 level.

None of that is preventing me from wanting to make a change, but one should not speak as though anything bad that happened in a coaching search under a previous AD can't possibly happen under JW.

Exactly. And it is easy to play Monday morning QB and say (now) that Groce was just terrible hire, but as combes pointed out, he was JFG early on by many fans. Also, it is easy in retrospect to say that Groce was Z list (or even Weber) but as many articles point out that was not the case.

According to media reports, Nebraska had hoped to woo Ohio's John Groce, the hottest mid-major coach in the land after leading the Bobcats to the NCAA regional semifinals.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-ba...-asks-fans-to-give-him-chance-032412.amp.html

For the record, even for Weber, who I thought it was a terrible fit for Illinois from the get go, I do not believe he was a Z list candidate either. Being a Z list candidate, a good fit, or a successful coach at UI, are all different things.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

Given that at least some critical gaps finally seem to be getting filled, do you think that it's reasonable to keep Groce to see how he does w/ reasonably constructed roster, or do you think that Groce has demonstrated that he's such a poor coach (thru roster construction errors, Xs/Os, player development, etc.) that he needs to go regardless?

We have nearly 5 full seasons of data on which to evaluate Groce. Weighing the last 3 games (against the bottom half of the B1G) more heavily than any other stretch of games just doesn't make sense to me. I'd love to have seen him succeed, and I'd love to see this team go on an amazing tear to the SS or beyond, but there's nothing there that indicates that he can take this team there, let alone that he will.

 

[bleedsorangenblue]

It'll be worse if Groce is retained. There's a lot of people who are fed up with the program's direction under Groce and who will drop their season tix if he's brought back yet again. Another season of Groce will be a big negative, attendance-wise.

This could be true but their butts will be back in those seats if the team starts winning. I just want what is best for Illinois basketball in the long term. I recently gave up on Groce and was still deciding on a pitchfork. These last few games have brought me back on to the fence. If Whitman decides that Groce is what is best for IL basketball next year, I am on board for another season.

 

[hermie1985]

Whitman gained instant fame by hiring Lovie (Who better get a QB soon or it's Bear2.0). I love the hire too so don't give me crap.

I like the Volleyball hire. Great resume but no HC experience.

I think the basketball hire will be more like the volleyball resume. Outside of Kruger (KState, Florida) we've gone more for catching lighting in a bottle.

I think we fire Groce, lose a good class and take a 50/50 shot.

 

[IlliniTargetAcquired]

My perfect scenario would be for us to make the tournament and build a little momentum and then hire a quality coach that can build off of that.

 

[Obelix]

Weighing the last 3 games (against the bottom half of the B1G)

No offense, and I am not singling out your post because I have read that in many other posts lately, but NW is not in the bottom half of the B1G.

 

[UofI08]

We have nearly 5 full seasons of data on which to evaluate Groce. Weighing the last 3 games (against the bottom half of the B1G) more heavily than any other stretch of games just doesn't make sense to me. I'd love to have seen him succeed, and I'd love to see this team go on an amazing tear to the SS or beyond, but there's nothing there that indicates that he can take this team there, let alone that he will.

Exactly

 

[UofI08]

No offense, and I am not singling out your post because I have read that in many other posts lately, but NW is not in the bottom half of the B1G.

True, they are currently tied for 6th. But they are on a downward trajectory and could finish as low as 9th.

 

[Obelix]

True, they are currently tied for 6th. But they are on a downward trajectory and could finish as low as 9th.

Or they could win out and finish higher. Bottom line is that, at the current time, the statement is incorrect.

 

[UofI08]

Or they could win out and finish higher. Bottom line is that, at the current time, the statement is incorrect.

Right. Tomorrow's games are huge for Illinois and Northwestern.

 

[IlliniOllie]

This could be true but their butts will be back in those seats if the team starts winning. I just want what is best for Illinois basketball in the long term. I recently gave up on Groce and was still deciding on a pitchfork. These last few games have brought me back on to the fence. If Whitman decides that Groce is what is best for IL basketball next year, I am on board for another season.

Most will be back, eventually, if they win enough... but it's easy to "get out of the habit" of getting tickets and going to games. And where's the line of "good enough" to be back? Some people, the NCAAs. Some people, 22-24 wins and solidly in. Some people, probably never; they'll find something else to do.

And in the interim, that season ticket money, concession money, parking money, (some of the) IFUND money... it's all gone. It's risky to drive customers away and just assume that they'll come back when things get better, especially in a world filled with other entertainment opportunities.

 

[FeelYourPaign]

Most will be back, eventually, if they win enough... but it's easy to "get out of the habit" of getting tickets and going to games. And where's the line of "good enough" to be back? Some people, the NCAAs. Some people, 22-24 wins and solidly in. Some people, probably never; they'll find something else to do.

And in the interim, that season ticket money, concession money, parking money, (some of the) IFUND money... it's all gone. It's risky to drive customers away and just assume that they'll come back when things get better, especially in a world filled with other entertainment opportunities.

I know what you are saying. I, for example, am holding off on my IFUND contribution until I see what JW does post-season. And how he does it.

 

[Greensboro]

No it has not, and that has been a problem for quite a long time, independent of rankings. People kid themselves if they think Illinois talent has been adequate to compete for top level finishes in the B1G. Illinois has had bubble level talent for a long time.

This, and comparing one recruiting class and neglecting position balance isn't ok.

 

[Calvin]

Never said that Groce is a "bad" recruiter, but I actually said many times that his recruiting had many positional gaps, especially at key positions, P specifically and then in the C/post.

Everyone and their little brother knows Groce missed on PG.

Not sure how you think that addresses my question on JCL, Black, Hill, DJW, etc. Were you finding them lacking when we signed them?

 

[ILLHangOut]

It'll be worse if Groce is retained. There's a lot of people who are fed up with the program's direction under Groce and who will drop their season tix if he's brought back yet again. Another season of Groce will be a big negative, attendance-wise.

Our average attendance dropped by 2,000 from 2015 - 2016 (NCAA publishes attendance over calendar year). That's a drop from 94% capacity to 82%, and a revenue loss of at least $2-3 million.

I agree that unless they make noise in the tourney, and grab headlines, it will be much worse next year.

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/statistics/ncaa-mens-basketball-attendance

 

[Obelix]

Everyone and their little brother knows Groce missed on PG.

Not sure how you think that addresses my question on JCL, Black, Hill, DJW, etc. Were you finding them lacking when we signed them?

I have explicitly said that in almost all my posts, and you refuse to read. We are talking of talent based on "on court" evidence in college, independent of rankings. Not HS rankings. You keep on coming back to HS rankings when they signed.

If you read my posts on talent, which are on just the previous couple of pages, it talks about evaluation of talent "on the court", actual performance, and independent of rankings. I am not talking about HS rankings.

http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/showpost.php?p=1281032&postcount=6742

Just because a player may be ranked higher than Deron Williams, James Augustine, or Trey Burke in HS rankings, does not make him a better talent than them in college.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I have explicitly said that in almost all my posts, and you refuse to read. We are talking of talent based on "on court" evidence in college, independent of rankings. Not HS rankings. You keep on coming back to HS rankings when they signed.



Just because a player may be ranked higher than Deron Williams, James Augustine, or Trey Burke in HS rankings, does not make him a better talent than them in college.

I understand the point you are trying to make, but if this is the measure we're going off of, Groce is a pretty horrible recruiter based on (1) botched evals at basically every position but PG, (2) failure to recruit to a scheme/identity, and (3) misses and specifically misses at key positions. If Groce isn't a + recruiter/developer of talent, there's really no reason to think he offers us tremendous upside moving forward seeing as we have yet to see any indicators of being a + coach.

And regarding (1), every coach has misses, so don't misinterpret that, but the jewels of our classes so far as well as the transfer evaluations really have not translated to this level at all, and whether that is due to being overrated, not fitting the scheme, or failure to develop, all of those fall squarely on coach.

 

[Foggy Notion]

It's risky to drive customers away and just assume that they'll come back when things get better, especially in a world filled with other entertainment opportunities.

Wait, are we still talking about Champaign-Urbana?

 

[89illinigrad]

While I think most everyone was on board with make the dance or bust prior to the season, it now seems like many have changed their standards now that making the dance is a possibility.

Now, if he makes the tourney all the anti-Groce people will say he doesn't deserve to stay because he didn't look good getting there. You cannot set a goal and then raise the bar just because you think the BIG is down or the bubble is soft or whatever.

Bottom line is that JW will do what he thinks is in the best interest for the team going forward. If he thinks that Groce has shown enough that he can be successful going forward, he will be retained, if not he'll find someone else who he thinks canbe successful here and I for one will support the team ( and coach), no matter what.

Sent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

While I think most everyone was on board with make the dance or bust prior to the season, it now seems like many have changed their standards now that making the dance is a possibility.

Again, no, some of us were not on board with that.

 

[IlliniTargetAcquired]

While I think most everyone was on board with make the dance or bust prior to the season, it now seems like many have changed their standards now that making the dance is a possibility.

I think most thought that this was a team that should easily make the tournament and stubbling in doesn't demand a vote of confidence.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

While I think most everyone was on board with make the dance or bust prior to the season, it now seems like many have changed their standards now that making the dance is a possibility.

Now, if he makes the tourney all the anti-Groce people will say he doesn't deserve to stay because he didn't look good getting there. You cannot set a goal and then raise the bar just because you think the BIG is down or the bubble is soft or whatever.

Bottom line is that JW will do what he thinks is in the best interest for the team going forward. If he thinks that Groce has shown enough that he can be successful going forward, he will be retained, if not he'll find someone else who he thinks canbe successful here and I for one will support the team ( and coach), no matter what.

I think you're oversimplifying things here and combining several narratives.

If Whitman gave Groce a mandate to make the NCAAs and keep his job, then if Groce gets there it's perfectly reasonable for JW to keep his word and retain Groce. I'd have no issue with that.

Doesn't mean that I still don't think he's the right guy for the job going forward. His continued struggles with roster management, getting the right players on the court and inability to win in January just don't give me the confidence that he can get the program back to the upper half of the Big Ten on a consistent basis.

And having said that, it doesn't mean I'm right, either. Maybe Groce has figured things out and now has the kind of players he can win with. It's within the realm of possibilities, but I just don't think it's very likely.

 

[Obelix]

I understand the point you are trying to make, but if this is the measure we're going off of, Groce is a pretty horrible recruiter based on (1) botched evals at basically every position but PG, (2) failure to recruit to a scheme/identity, and (3) misses and specifically misses at key positions. If Groce isn't a + recruiter/developer of talent, there's really no reason to think he offers us tremendous upside moving forward seeing as we have yet to see any indicators of being a + coach.

I would not call him horrible, but until this incoming class, the positional gaps in his recruiting, especially at PG and post/C, were truly puzzling. Does his incoming class have better balance than all of his previous ones? For sure. Could he do better if he can improve talent moving forward (i.e., build on this foundational class)? I believe so. Would I make a change? I would have made coaching change last year, I thought the coaching change decision was easier last year. Will Whitman make a change? It would not surprise me either way, I think there are good chances on both directions. If Groce doesn't make the NCAA but ends up at NIT, will Whitman make a change? I think there are chances he will make a change, but I am not convinced that it is a done deal as others make it out to be. If we make the NIT, I think there are still chances that Groce survives IMO.

This is not a question about what you or I should do. We will not make the decision. I would have made a change on Groce last year. Yet, I did not think Whitman was going to make that change, and still unsure about this year. I thought Weber should have been released much earlier, I was one of the biggest advocates for a change. Yet, I never thought that Guenther was going to do it. What posters "want" and what Whitman will do may not end up being the same thing.

 

[MakesNoSense]

While I think most everyone was on board with make the dance or bust prior to the season, it now seems like many have changed their standards now that making the dance is a possibility.

I think most thought that this was a team that should easily make the tournament and stubbling in doesn't demand a vote of confidence.

So some had unrealistic expectations of easily making the tournament. Yet if Illinois does make the tourney it won''t be good enough because it wasn't easy?