Depends who the coach would be. Fans want to see talented players and team, they will not just rush to the gate because we made a coaching change. If we make a coaching change, it would be extremely critical, just ABG would not do.
2017 Coaching Carousel
- Status
Depends who the coach would be. Fans want to see talented players and team, they will not just rush to the gate because we made a coaching change. If we make a coaching change, it would be extremely critical, just ABG would not do.
OrangeAndBlues
- Indianapolis
No kidding, do we really need to start going in those circles again? We're not going to get a scrub this time around. We will get a serious candidate.
haasi
- New York
Given that at least some critical gaps finally seem to be getting filled, do you think that it's reasonable to keep Groce to see how he does w/ reasonably constructed roster, or do you think that Groce has demonstrated that he's such a poor coach (thru roster construction errors, Xs/Os, player development, etc.) that he needs to go regardless?
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Yes, they will, actually. At least in the short term. Curiosity is a helluva thing.
Had to chuckle at this^^^. Made me think of Mike White. The only tickets he sold were probably to his family but Dave Wilson throwing for a bazillions yards put butts in seats. In reality, you didn't have the latter without the former.
The '80s belonged to the Illini!!!! Plenty of good QBs and PGs
That a silly argument going in circles the other way. I am pretty sure fans at Illinois wanted to get a scrub for the last 12 years, especially when the program was extremely highly in 2003. I am sure, the fans said, "let's get a scrub" just to try it, as every other program wishes on their searches.
Fans will show up for a new coach if they are excited about him. There will be a honeymoon period just like there was for "JFG." Remember that? Fans get their hopes up every time there is a change. They will show up. For how long will depend on the product on the court.
No, already explained, there is some short term goodwill that depends on who the coahc would be as already explained above, But just because you are making a coaching change, does not guarantee that.
http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/showpost.php?p=1280998&postcount=6720
Personally, not a fan of "JFG" and the like, but "JFG" was the outcome of an early recruiting win (e.g., Nunn) and a very good, overachieving season that we unexpectedly made the dance and advanced to second round, almost S16.
There will be some short curiosity that will depend on the magnitude of the hire (name recognition), but will not have sustainable effect (which is what matters) unless followed by recruiting and on-court results. ABG would not do.
We also had Ron Guenther and one of the best "programs" in 2003 and we ended up with Bruce Weber who had a far more detrimental effect on the program than Groce.
I am sure in the last 2 searches you knew and were expecting a bad hire.
My post, on dependency on coaching name, was made before yours, so I assume you missed it.
Impact of a coaching change largely depends on who the coach is. Lovie had a big impact because of his NFL background and name recognition, especially in Illinois. If we hire Kevin Keats or Brad Underwood, I doubt you'd see a huge swing in ticket sales. I'm not sure there's a hire we could make that would compare to Lovie, but a Tony Bennett or Archie Miller would probably have a decent impact. If we do make a change, it'll probably be somewhere in between those two levels.
This is the crux of the matter. We can go up and down the roster and debate the player talent, but the discussion at hand is the coaching performance. To a lessor extent, if you want to argue the results are not indicative of his ability, his coaching "talent". Those are shades of gray, and I get that your assessment may be different from others, whether it's coaching talent or player talent. Talent is most definitely relevant, and if you were bemoaning our recent classes than that would carry some weight.
I'd love it if you could go back and point to your posts a few year ago that Groce was a bad recruiter, and how you were warning us that we're assembling bubble talent. I.e. show us that this isn't an after-the-fact argument, and that you had warned us that JCL isn't very talented, Black, Hill, DJW, Finke, AJ, Thorne, etc., and that they'd make us a bubble team. If you're saying we keep missing therefore we're low in talent, as I say, that seems circular to me.
Not that it matters, but I can point back to posts I made predicting mediocrity, based on my belief that we had not shown an identity under Groce, and we were still looking at poor coaching and below average PG play. I also argued early for giving TJL as much as he could handle anyway, as it would be best for us long term. He's been better than advertised, for sure. In fact, if this season is saved, I will believe it has more to do with him than Groce, personally.
Just one more point, I think the incoming class also has pretty solid talent --enough to compete, and certainly enough to make the dance.
It'll be worse if Groce is retained. There's a lot of people who are fed up with the program's direction under Groce and who will drop their season tix if he's brought back yet again. Another season of Groce will be a big negative, attendance-wise.
OrangeAndBlues
- Indianapolis
Well, we should just never switch coaches then since nothing is a sure thing. :hand:
I'm done trying with you. You must be a blast at parties.
Weber had a far more deterimental effect, but if Guenther had launched Bruce when it was apparent that he wasn't going the right direction, instead of keeping him around too long, the damage could've been reduced.
Agreed, and that was my point. Name recognition matters but ABG would not do.
I do not believe Bennett would ever consider it, but I am actually hopeful for Archie, although it would be tough. But more realistic than Bennett IMO.
OrangeAndBlues
- Indianapolis
Exactly. He lasted a few seasons past when he should have. If Guenther had pulled the plug at the right time, we would have still been in relatively good shape and been an attractive destination for serious coaches.
On court results sell. Early non conference losses and BIG blow outs soured the fan base this year. I was really never on board with this team. I didn't think we'd compete every night with TA and Tate at PG or Mav in the post. Mav was a nice surprise. It was reasonable to assume TJL wasn't ready. I wanted to see him anyway. I went to the Ohio State game and was lucky enough to sit 5 rows off the floor. Enjoyed the win but unimpressed with the talent on both teams.
A hot start next year would pull fans back. We are a fickle group. A new coach would too for awhile but only longer if we win.
Never said that, I actually accept uncertainty versus your perceived can't miss statements that "we're not going to get a scrub this time around. We will get a serious candidate."
I agree, actually that was my point with Weber for many years.
OrangeAndBlues
- Indianapolis
You're still missing it. Every coaching change is uncertainty. We could get Bennett or Miller and they could still fail. I'm saying that we won't end up with our Z list pick this time. Serious candidate =/= impossible to fail.
You're not getting his point. You're speaking in absolutes. There is zero guarantee you don't wind up with a Z list pick. While at least most of us are Whitman fans, he has yet to compete in a carousel and secure a top coaching target. There is nothing that proves to us that he is a major draw to candidates as an AD, and nothing that proves he will secure his top target 100% of the time. I am all for appreciating what he has done, but treating him as some man amongst boys in the AD ranks is being a little unrealistic, considering how green he is at the D1 level.
None of that is preventing me from wanting to make a change, but one should not speak as though anything bad that happened in a coaching search under a previous AD can't possibly happen under JW.
Never said that Groce is a "bad" recruiter, but I actually said many times that his recruiting had many positional gaps, especially at key positions, P specifically and then in the C/post. If you have a problem searching for those posts, I can help.
If you read my posts on talent, which are on just the previous couple of pages, it talks about evaluation of talent "on the court", actual performance, and independent of rankings. I am not talking about HS rankings.
As far as this coming class (expectations), I have said many times that I like it, not an exceptional class as many make it out to be, but a very good foundational class with positional balance. I am also very conservative on my recruiting evaluations, I base my own evaluations on watching many of the players in actual games (HS and especially AAU), not just rankings. Even for Tilmon, who I really like, you can search read what I've said about his ranking.
- Status