Our talent has been bubble level talent, and that is how college basketball insiders, outside the Illini message boards, have perceived Illinois. You may say that Illinois has had talent adequate to be comfortably above .500 in B1G, and in tournament every year, but has not been the case independent of rankings. And it reflected on expectations (not on Illini message boards) going into the seasons. Of course, as I said, Groce did not help the case either with his coaching. But the talent has not been there. It has definitely been below where Illinois talent should be.
We have been hovering on bubble level talent for a long time. The lack of talent at key positions (especially at PG) and the positional gaps have been more than obvious in the Groce era. Every year we are picked as a bubble team at best in publications, and this is beyond just coaching. Even in Groce's first year, when he overachieved, taking a team that had had a terrible season and had lost Leonard to the draft, it was not that analysts saw Illinois and said "Bruce is gone so Illinois now has enough talent to succeed." And even when Groce succeeded his first year, it was not that analysts saw a very talented team the next year.
Even when Weber underachieved in 2009-10, if you research the pre-season rankings and publications, you will see that the 2010-11 team was ranked very high going in and reflected in expectations. Why? Because of talent.