2017 Coaching Carousel

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#6,601      
I suspect that preseason predictions are based on assessments of not just raw talent, but also of coaching ability.

+1 They're ranking the whole product.

I'd put it to you this way, if you asked a college bball expert whether MSU would be better off losing Izzo for the season, or one of there best players, it would not be a slam dunk that they'd pick Izzo. That's quite a testimonial to coaching.
 
#6,602      
This is just false.

Its not like Whitman can all of a sudden decide right after the BTT. He has to know, right now, at this moment what he's going to do. You can't call a prospective coach and say, "Hey, you want this job...That is if John doesn't make the NCAA, so just wait and I'll let you know".
 
#6,605      
Easy argument to make, but not persuasive if you believe the coach has some responsibility for performance.

That's not the argument, especially when the post says directly that "it does not excuse Groce's poor coaching." If you have bubble level talent and poor coaching, your results will be sub-par. But it is not a persuasive argument to make that poor coaching alone means that you've had good talent.
 
#6,606      
Our talent has been bubble level talent, and that is how college basketball insiders, outside the Illini message boards, have perceived Illinois. You may say that Illinois has had talent adequate to be comfortably above .500 in B1G, and in tournament every year, but has not been the case independent of rankings. And it reflected on expectations (not on Illini message boards) going into the seasons. Of course, as I said, Groce did not help the case either with his coaching. But the talent has not been there. It has definitely been below where Illinois talent should be.

We have been hovering on bubble level talent for a long time. The lack of talent at key positions (especially at PG) and the positional gaps have been more than obvious in the Groce era. Every year we are picked as a bubble team at best in publications, and this is beyond just coaching. Even in Groce's first year, when he overachieved, taking a team that had had a terrible season and had lost Leonard to the draft, it was not that analysts saw Illinois and said "Bruce is gone so Illinois now has enough talent to succeed." And even when Groce succeeded his first year, it was not that analysts saw a very talented team the next year.

Even when Weber underachieved in 2009-10, if you research the pre-season rankings and publications, you will see that the 2010-11 team was ranked very high going in and reflected in expectations. Why? Because of talent.

The lack of talent at key positions has been huge. Groce swung for the fence and missed. Coach K did the same at Duke when he started but landed a talented class early.

The quickest way off the bubble is to stick with Groce and bring in the next class to join TJL, JCL and Kipper. I'm not saying that Groce's coaching can compete for BIG titles. I'm saying losing this next class keeps you on the bubble.

I probably fire Groce at this point because I want to compete in the BIG but most of the fire Groce crowd talk all the time about getting in the dance. Groce has you poised to do just that after five years. I bet it will take most candidates we have a shot at another five.
 
#6,607      
The lack of talent at key positions has been huge. Groce swung for the fence and missed. Coach K did the same at Duke when he started but landed a talented class early.

The quickest way off the bubble is to stick with Groce and bring in the next class to join TJL, JCL and Kipper. I'm not saying that Groce's coaching can compete for BIG titles. I'm saying losing this next class keeps you on the bubble.

I probably fire Groce at this point because I want to compete in the BIG but most of the fire Groce crowd talk all the time about getting in the dance. Groce has you poised to do just that after five years. I bet it will take most candidates we have a shot at another five.

Groce made the tourney his first year with the previous coach's players. Why couldn't the right coach do that with Groce's players?

If it takes a new coach five years to make the tourney, then Whitman will have chosen the wrong guy.
 
#6,608      
I probably fire Groce at this point because I want to compete in the BIG but most of the fire Groce crowd talk all the time about getting in the dance. Groce has you poised to do just that after five years. I bet it will take most candidates we have a shot at another five.

It shouldn't take you 5 years to make the dance in this era. Jamie Dixon in his first year at a bad TCU has his team squarely on the bubble with us, same as Chris Beard at Texas Tech. Basketball rebuilds can be quite quick under decent coaches.
 
#6,609      
I'd put it to you this way, if you asked a college bball expert whether MSU would be better off losing Izzo for the season, or one of there best players, it would not be a slam dunk that they'd pick Izzo. That's quite a testimonial to coaching.

That's because Izzo is arguably the best college coach not representative of just any college coach. But at the same time, if you give Illinois Izzo's recruits and players the last few years, college basketball experts would also pick Illinois much higher, no doubt about that.

When Weber underachieved his 2009-10 season, why did experts pick Illinois very high the 2010-11 season? Because Weber was a good coach?

As I said, coaching is a big factor on our results, it does not excuse poor coaching by Groce, but the arguments that Illinois has had a talented team, or a deep team, are simply laughable IMO. We have had average level talent with many positional gaps, critical gaps.
 
#6,610      

UofI08

Chicago
So we should hold on to Groce because he's a good recruiter, but excuse the last 4 years because he didn't have enough talent on the roster...... ok......

As a student from 04-08, I am legitimately having trouble comprehending that they have to advertise 2 free tickets per student to get people to a MSU game! I remember having to wait in line just for the chance to get onto the floor level for Krush.

But don't worry, just give him another year. It's all up from here....
 
#6,611      
Groce made the tourney his first year with the previous coach's players. Why couldn't the right coach do that with Groce's players?

If it takes a new coach five years to make the tourney, then Whitman will have chosen the wrong guy.
I didn't mean to sat the new guy wouldn't make the dance. I meant we will still be living on the bubble.

I'm assuming most of the incoming class goes elsewhere.

I think it's hard to get off the bubble from the lower 1/2 of the BIG. We have to crawl up the BIG standings to do it. Easier to make the dance from Dayton than Champaign these days. Back in the Henson era, Dayton wasn't going. Dayton was a stepping stone to a team that could be invited.

I'd love Archie or Bennett and hope to compete for BIG titles and deep runs. I don't think we get either of them.
 
#6,612      

UofI08

Chicago
This!!!!!!!

The number 1 reason to fire Groce is simply because the product does not fill seats. People will not waste money to see a mediocre product that consistently loses at home and gets blown out on the road.

The number 1 reason is results. But yeah, fan apathy is really setting in.
 
#6,613      

Illwinsagain

Cary, IL
FatGreg, your last few posts are right on.

People don't seem to realize that there are 13 other teams in the B1G doing their best to win - 25 plus wins a year just doesn't happen very often. Even if you are Tom Izzo and have your team going deep into both the BTT and NCAA tourney regularly, you get there at best about half the time. He has 12 in 22 years (7 final fours). Beilein has 2 25+ game winning seasons in 10 years, Crean has 3 in 9 years, and Thad Matta has had 7 in 13 years. Note that these figures represent total record and not regular season, so BTT, NCAA and NIT games are included.

Thanks for the stats, I would have thought MSU would have even more 25 win seasons.
 
#6,614      
This!!!!!!!

The number 1 reason to fire Groce is simply because the product does not fill seats. People will not waste money to see a mediocre product that consistently loses at home and gets blown out on the road.

Free student tickets Wednesday night will take care of those empty seats.:)
 
#6,616      
The number 1 reason is results. But yeah, fan apathy is really setting in.

It's really obvious for the games that aren't kept afloat by the inertia of season ticket renewals. Maybe a couple thousand at the United Center, dwindling Braggin' Rights attendance, and the noticeable absence of orange at out of town games (like for the games in Brooklyn, or other B1G opponents that used to see us travel well). Fan apathy is bad and only getting worse.
 
#6,617      

OrangeAndBlues

Indianapolis
It's really obvious for the games that aren't kept afloat by the inertia of season ticket renewals. Maybe a couple thousand at the United Center, dwindling Braggin' Rights attendance, and the noticeable absence of orange at out of town games (like for the games in Brooklyn, or other B1G opponents that used to see us travel well). Fan apathy is bad and only getting worse.

Wait until next year if Groce doesn't get fired. It will be a ghost town.
 
#6,619      

Ransom Stoddard

Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
You think so? I think there will be butts in the seats to watch Tilmon and Frazier.

I think you're overstating how many people pay attention to what recruits are coming in. JMO, but I've known plenty of people with season tix that don't follow recruiting in the least.
 
#6,620      

OrangeAndBlues

Indianapolis
I think you're overstating how many people pay attention to what recruits are coming in. JMO, but I've known plenty of people with season tix that don't follow recruiting in the least.

This. In addition, I think you're overstating the likelihood that we keep those recruits if we miss the Dance again and make no change.
 
#6,621      

UofI08

Chicago
You think so? I think there will be butts in the seats to watch Tilmon and Frazier.

Timon maybe because he is somewhat local. Frazier, no way. Nobody outside of these fan forums have any idea about an unranked kid from Florida.
 
#6,622      
Wait until next year if Groce doesn't get fired. It will be a ghost town.

It will be a ghost town if the team does not perform, independent of coach. And tickets will improve if the team performs well, independent of coach. Financial dynamics are big part of college sports, but they are more the outcome than the cause. Tickets will not improve because fans want to see a new coach, they want to see talented players and results.
 
#6,623      
You think so? I think there will be butts in the seats to watch Tilmon and Frazier.

There are 13 million people in this state, over 2 million in Central Illinois and over 280,000 in the Champaign area alone (with students). We've been a very successful basketball program historically, and we have a nice, recently renovated arena. There will ALWAYS be a pretty high floor for Illini basketball attendance, especially in big games.

The difference is that it used to be a tough ticket for nearly every game. I remember in 2006 asking my dad if we could drive over from Iowa City for a game, and he had to tell me "I'll see what we can do, it's just tough to get tickets there."
 
#6,624      

OrangeAndBlues

Indianapolis
It will be a ghost town if the team does not perform, independent of coach. And tickets will improve if the team performs well, independent of coach. Financial dynamics are big part of college sports, but they are more the outcome than the cause. Tickets will not improve because fans want to see a new coach, they want to see talented players and results.

And right now, the easiest way you're going to convince them that the results will change is with a new coach.
 
#6,625      

UofI08

Chicago
It will be a ghost town if the team does not perform, independent of coach. And tickets will improve if the team performs well, independent of coach. Financial dynamics are big part of college sports, but they are more the outcome than the cause. Tickets will not improve because fans want to see a new coach, they want to see talented players and results.

True for the most part. But new coaches tend to bring hope to casual fans, no matter if its warranted or not. Look at the UNC game in football and the increase in season tickets. Obviously that will depend on how likable and appealing the coach is.
 
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