That's gotta be one of the top 5 biggest "IF" scenarios I've seen on this website
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That's gotta be one of the top 5 biggest "IF" scenarios I've seen on this website
Yeah, he figures it out around this time every season, after digging a deep hole in January.
It makes perfect sense when you examine it from a personal dynamics view. Every time I have had to let someone go, I distance myself before I have to drop the hatchet. No way am I hugging and pounding the back of the soon to be executed. I truly believe this points to retaining.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
It doesn't. I've fired people I like, and I've been fired by people I like (and I presume like me). "The hug" IMO means nothing more than Whitman is pulling for Groce and feels personally connected to Groce's success--which he is.
If Josh Whitman is too "loyal" or has a man-crush on Groce that prohibits him from doing what he needs to do, he is not the right person for AD at Illinois. And so far, I'm pretty sure Whitman's the right person for the job.
He may decide to fire him he may not, but can anybody say that we are not on the way up starting next year? We are absolutely looking better the next 2 or 3 years for sure with the talent coming in and at the right positions. I think any other thought is not objective, unquestionably better players and at point guard an improvement by a mile
You're right. Lucas is playing well and Kipper has sparked the bench. The question is other than giving those guys more minutes, what has Groce done to help the team? I don't see him doing anything different. I don't think beating NW, Nebraska, or Iowa suddenly should give him a pass. If Illinois wins out, his conference record at Illinois is still 38-52. He's a mediocre coach and we're a bubble team that might get in because the bubble is weak this year. That shouldn't be the standard here.
2017 class average grade: .9352, 11th nationally
2013 class average grade: .9234, 14th nationally
Talk about PGs all you want, that's fair, but the talent has always been there to succeed.
It's like I've heard this somewhere before... oh, that's right, last year, and here we are, still on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble.
Groce has had enough chances. It's time for someone else to have a shot.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
+1. It seems to be brought up every couple pages on this thread. There have been frustrating recruiting battles, but I've rarely had concerns about Illinois teams lacking raw talent. I can understand the lack of getting a quality PG, but anything beyond that is a stretch.
This comment brings back memories of all those posters who used to compare Groce's record to Coach K's. Groce isn't in the same league as either. Heck he's not even in the same sport.
No it has not, and that has been a problem for quite a long time, independent of rankings. People kid themselves if they think Illinois talent has been adequate to compete for top level finishes in the B1G. Illinois has had bubble level talent for a long time.
Especially at the most important position, PG, talent has been absolutely dismal in Groce's tenure and C has not been good either, and I'd give much credit to Mav for, despite his many limitations on defense, probably developing as a much better player than anyone may had expected. It does not excuse Groce's poor coaching, but let's not pretend that talent has not been a problem.
Since Dee and James Augustine left, the talent level has been a huge problem, below the level Illinois should be at, independent of good or bad coaching in specific seasons. The only one of those years that Illinois had "good" talent, at a level that we should have, was 2010-11: DMac, DJ, Paul, Davis, Tisdale, Griffey, Richmond, Leonard, Cole, Head, Bertrand. Independent of coaching, head cases, off-court, chemistry, etc. Talent-wise.
Even historically, the periods that Illinois consistently got very good talent (80s and late 90s/early 2000s) miraculously coincide with the periods we were consistently good, not just good in a single season.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
It's the equivalent of looking at 100 kids who entered college with a terrible ACT score and pointing to the one who became a honor's student and believing it's the standard instead of an outlier.
Unfortunately, two of the three 4 star recruits in 2013 aren't on the team anymore.
When did I ever say to be top level Big Ten? I said to succeed, and we haven't even come close to that threshold since the inaugural Groce season. Our talent level has been more than sufficient to be a >.500 team in conference play (we will not achieve this a single time in 5 years under Groce) and will achieve one convincing (for the most part) tourney berth ('12-'13), and this year where we could claw our way in there after flailing for a solid 1.5 month span of the season.
Groce hasn't met the goals of the program in his time here, but he also hasn't fulfilled minimum expectations. The latter is something he had talent to do. The former he has not, I will not dispute that, but we're not talking about firing a coach who has achieved tournaments and we want to take the next step or something. To clarify just for the sake of being on the same page, I define the goals being more along the lines of being top 4 B10, top 6 seeds, the minimum expectation being 5-7 (maybe 8 in a strong B10 year) B10, tournament any seed.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Why are we removing one of the only reliable metrics to assessing talent level coming out of HS? And, if we assess talent without rankings, how can we accurately assess the talent of each team (before they start interacting with their coaching staff)? The only thing you point to is final record, which is not a good measurement. You can't say, "I know when a team is going to have the talent to be successful" and follow up by saying, "when their W-L record is really good" and believe that is predictive.
Our talent has been bubble level talent, and that is how college basketball insiders, outside the Illini message boards, have perceived Illinois. You may say that Illinois has had talent adequate to be comfortably above .500 in B1G, and in tournament every year, but has not been the case independent of rankings. And it reflected on expectations (not on Illini message boards) going into the seasons. Of course, as I said, Groce did not help the case either with his coaching. But the talent has not been there. It has definitely been below where Illinois talent should be.
We have been hovering on bubble level talent for a long time. The lack of talent at key positions (especially at PG) and the positional gaps have been more than obvious in the Groce era. Every year we are picked as a bubble team at best in publications, and this is beyond just coaching. Even in Groce's first year, when he overachieved, taking a team that had had a terrible season and had lost Leonard to the draft, it was not that analysts saw Illinois and said "Bruce is gone so Illinois now has enough talent to succeed." And even when Groce succeeded his first year, it was not that analysts saw a very talented team the next year.
Even when Weber underachieved in 2009-10, if you research the pre-season rankings and publications, you will see that the 2010-11 team was ranked very high going in and reflected in expectations. Why? Because of talent.
As we have discussed on this site many times, there is very little difference between 50 and 150 in the rankings in HS. Except for maybe the top 15-20 players a year, which are a cut above, the talent in the top 150 is comparable. And some kids develop early and max out there potential in high school and some develop later. Illinois hasn't had any of the top 15-20 for a while. So the level of talent becomes an opinion - yours is of the same value as Obelix'. I tend to agree with him - we have had mid-level big talent for a while and that is where we have ended up. You could look at preseason predictions if you want a more contemporaneous unbiased evaluation of talent on the team before we start actually playing the games - IIRC with the exception of last year Groce has usually come in at or above where predicted by a consensus of writers, but I admit I haven't done the research.
You can assess talent when you actually "see the talent on the court", not a priori based on rankings. Rankings are good on what to expect, but we are talking about talent on the court here, not just on paper. Rankings do not account for positional gaps and huge deficiencies at PG (and C) neither do they account for talent than does not pan out, washes out etc. Tate may give you points in rankings (also influenced by number of players in a class) but not points on the floor.
Just because Nunn or JCL were ranked higher than let's say Trey Burke, that does not mean that they were more talented when they entered college (independent of development). It is not that Beilein transformed Burke in pre-season workouts, he was very talented from the get go. Same with Deron Williams, Dee, Augustine, etc. And we are not just talking stats, we are talking talent. You could easily see these players were more talented.
People often refer to this years team as very talented and deep, but we are neither very talented nor deep. Unless the level of talent gets upgraded, we will never consistently compete in the B1G. Not in the upper echelon.
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Whether it's the level of talent that's here, or the coaching of said talent, it all falls at the feet of John Groce. 
I suspect that preseason predictions are based on assessments of not just raw talent, but also of coaching ability.
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IlliniInOK
- no longer in OK! Centralia, IL
I don't think you can say we will be looking better next year for sure. I think it's entirely possible that no matter who is coaching, we struggle to make the tourney. Unless we hit the 5th year transfer market, which I fully expect but we all know it's a crapshoot, our bigs will be Finke, Black, and a a freshman Tilmon. Even if guard play improves a lot, that is a very thin front line and Tilmon is the only one offering any semblance of rim protection.
Absolutely agree.
I agree with the other posters --I find this to be not only a flawed and circular argument, but I also don't believe it based on evidence of a team that has played quite well at times, and quite poorly at others. Other's perception of us as bubble when the games are already in the books is also, by and large tautological. Easy argument to make, but not persuasive if you believe the coach has some responsibility for performance.
We lose, therefore we must have been destined for losses because the talent's not there. Seems to absolve the coach of all but recruiting, which btw, he also does.
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