I understand that this is about building a winning program. I not close to the situation and don't have the inside info you have. That said, color me skeptical when he professes the need to be closer to his daughter. That seems like a convenient ploy which bothers me as a father.
Personally, I think he feels he is better off at Miami, but it didn't work out. Despite his ability, they stopped using him. Given that he is trying to get to the NFL, he said, "if you don't want to play me, then I'd rather be home with my daughter" and I will transfer back toward home. If he didn't want to be closer to his daughter, he could have had his choice at schools (to some extent). He came, checked out Illinois and Mizzou. He chose Illinois. However, when the Miami coach got fired, he probably felt vindicated and wanted to see if it could work at Miami. I don't fault him for that. A year at Miami guarantees him a year in a P5 conference.
The thing about Estes is still a little fuzzy. Estes committed, which means something was communicated to someone. Who knows who or what was communicated. That is much less important than perceptions. The staff's apparent commitment to the players' word is warranted. A mis communication like this can easily derail a successful turnaround. I don't blame anyone. But if this turnaround is going to work, this has got to be handled.