That is only true if literally nothing else changes between now and 2023. I think it is unlikely that nothing else changes. California has the most people, most TV sets, and the largest economy of any state in the country. If the NCAA plays hardball and says they won't budge and the California players who participate are ineligible, then they will lose a
lot of money even just from California.
Now consider the ripple effect this could have:
- California just gave other states cover to pass similar laws. Let's say that New York, for example, follows suit. Now you have the first and third largest state economies involved. That's even more money and control they lose.
- The Pac-12 is now in an untenable position if 25% of its member institutions are paying their players while the other 75% are obeying status quo. They will either have to allow this conference-wide or else eject the California schools (which, again, would cost the Pac-12 a gigantic sum of money due to lost TV sets and lost interest due to matchups). The NCAA is therefore facing one of their Power 5 conferences being wholly non-compliant and losing the TV money on the entire West Coast.
The bottom line is that there is a lot of this story left to be written and this very well may be the economic domino that causes sweeping change at the NCAA.