So, after cursing out my 2016 self for lots of shoddy work, I managed to get things running again. I won't swear this is error free, but eh, it's sports
Based on KP rankings and 10k simulations, I'm coming up with something a bit different than bboiler. MSU with only a 53% chance at the top seed, probably because KP likes Maryland quite a bit. These are in order of average finish. I'm very fond of the 1-in-3 shot at a double bye!
View attachment 5470
Tiebreakers aren't having a huge effect at this stage, except to hurt MSU's championship hopes slightly, give us a slight boost towards the 3 seed for some reason, and (mainly) kick Nebraska towards the basement as they've lost to Northwestern once already.
View attachment 5469
Finally, a new question for this year — what would the projected standings look like if every team were equally talented? So far we're about 25% of the way through the season. How much of the above projection is based on the strength of the team, and how much is due to the results to date?
Here's what the predictions would look like if every game left were a coin toss. MSU is still the favorite, but no longer an odds-on favorite for the 1 seed versus the field.
View attachment 5471
And here's the change versus the actual forecast (ordered by the actual forecast). OSU is the stand-out here. Neglecting team strength, their start would leave them with a >50% chance of a bottom-4 finish. But, because KP thinks they're the 7th best team in the country, those odds are closer to 10%. For Illinois, relative team strength roughly halves our chances of a B1G title (5% vs. 12%), but also roughly halves our chance of a disastrous no-bye finish (8% vs. 13%).
View attachment 5472
Last note — at this point there appears to be a roughly 1-in-400 chance of a coin toss being used for a B1G tourney seeding tiebreaker.