The solution is some sort of sliding scale based on both age and service time.
So anything that discourages prospect stashing is better.
Anything that discourages tanking is better.
Agree on all counts. Here would be my negotiating strategy.
- Changes to the way draft picks work to address tanking is obviously needed. A great idea I heard was to set the draft order based on wins after a given marker, either the team being eliminated from the playoffs or their 81st loss, or something of that nature. The idea is that it still gives an advantage to the worst teams since they will arrive at the threshold first and thus have the most opportunities to collect those wins. But in closing out lost seasons teams would be chasing wins rather than losses, changing incentives around prospects and the bad for the game tendency of bad teams to trade everything that isn't nailed down at the deadline. It's the best designed anti-tanking measure I've heard, it perfectly fits with baseball's long season of fairly coin-flippy games, and provides a reason to do what's right and keep the prohibition on trading draft picks. Get this right incentive-wise and the probably inevitable international draft only enhances the benefits.
- Work with the owners on an age based free agency model. Something to the tune of 27 + 3 years service seems like it would capture the historical line pretty well (obviously do better if you can). Rather than cockamamie game-able incentive structures to induce teams to put their best teams on the field it would just end service time manipulation forever with the stroke of a pen.
- Attack the penalties of the luxury tax rather than the dollar threshold. Specifically, the escalating penalty structure every year over the tax that "resets" if you drop below for a season compels the sport's richest teams to constantly be shedding payroll and rotating out of the free agent market. Ownership implemented a salary cap under the players noses. If you're arguing over what that dollar threshold is, you've already lost and accepted the new capped reality. Get rid of the repeater penalty and make the tax just a stable cost of doing business for rich ambitious teams.
- For the love of god hold the line at a 10-team playoff. Returning to 8 would be better, but that's not realistic and 10 does hit a bit of a sweet spot serving the dual purpose of bringing more teams into the pennant race while also genuinely encouraging division races to avoid that one-game crapshoot. And there's an option to feed MLB's desperate desire for more playoff TV inventory while putting even MORE emphasis on the regular season: make the Division Series 7 games. Ownership has even shown some interest in the idea of more home games in playoff series for the team with the better record which is a fine idea.
- At both major and minor league levels, shoot for increases to the minimum salary over messing with the arbitration access process, which ownership is irrationally crazy about. Use that overemphasis against them and just get money for everybody. This is also to the benefit of the sport at large by making it more attractive to young multi-talented athletes.
- One area where the players and owners incentives align for a quick short-term cash boost is expansion, which in baseball I think is a worthwhile idea. There are lots of promising expansion markets (Vegas, Charlotte, Nashville, San Antonio, Austin, Portland, Raleigh-Durham, Montreal) and expanding to 32 teams while holding the line on playoff expansion would actually boost the importance of the regular season.
- And finally, the place players need to stand down is on rule changes. The players hate and distrust Manfred, and they have their valid reasons to do so. But he is acting in their and the game's favor trying to return baseball to the faster and more athletic game it was for a century before three true outcomes creep started to overwhelm things, and it's necessary to preserve a bright future for the game. Players should accept and be a partner in that initiative and be vocally supportive of the goal.
It's a lot of stuff, but I think the situation is more dire than folks realize. Dire, but not doomed. I still very much believe in baseball being America's Pastime for generations to come if it can make the right moves.