2/28 Polls & Bracketology - Illinois #20 in AP Poll

Pikeillinifan · Feb 28, 2022

My guess is we're a four seed, maybe a five. . . would love a three but four seems most likely barring a collapse.

illini80 · Feb 28, 2022

Slipped a bit more than I expected, but that’s what happens when you lose. The only thing I can hope is that it pisses guys off enough to to play all out every game. That’s been a problem and it’s why we aren’t the top 10 team I expected us to be. While Plummer has been flat out unbelievable at times, I’m shocked at how poor he can still be on defense. He has got to lock in for us to make a deep tourney run imo.

Bigtex · Feb 28, 2022

Manual3for4peat said:
So pretty much everyone loses a game in the top ten and don’t move. We do, to a ranked team, and drop five spots. Lol. Never change AP.

Wonder what Duke’s record would be if Paulo missed five games?

but only UCLA and Illinois had losses that were ranked 10-25 so everyone around us won twice.

ILikeCoffeeMugs · Feb 28, 2022

Fighter of the Nightman said:
The polls make literally no sense sometimes. We lose to #22 OSU at home, who then goes on to lose at unranked/barely .500 Maryland by 15 ... and drops from #22 to #23. That indicates the voters thought a win at Illinois was impressive enough to effectively outweigh getting whooped in College Park. However, we respond to our 3-point loss by going on the road and winning vs. a top 40 NET Michigan team and we drop 5 spots. Lol.

It's basically Oscar nominations where there's a mixture of predictability and nonsense if we use the precursors as a guide.

Fighter of the Nightman · Feb 28, 2022

I suppose this is "bracketology," but if you are like me and will be traveling during the Big Ten Tournament and want to make sure you can watch the Illini, these would be our game times if we got each seed. I have not crunched the scenarios to see what's possible, so I will just lay out the top four (the BTT Championship is obviously the same no matter what, at 2:30 pm CST on Sunday 3/13):

1-seed
- Friday 3/11 at 10:30 am CST (Quarterfinals)
- Saturday 3/12 at 12:00 pm CST (Semifinals)

2-seed
- Friday 3/11 at 5:30 pm CST (Quarterfinals)
- Saturday 3/12 at ~ 2:30 pm CST (Semifinals))

3-seed
- Friday 3/11 at ~ 8:00 pm CST (Quarterfinals)
- Saturday 3/12 at ~2:30 pm CST (Semifinals)

4-seed
- Friday 3/11 at ~ 1:00 pm CST (Quarterfinals)
- Saturday 3/12 at 12:00 pm CST (Semifinals)

I obviously want the best possible seed and/or the best possible path, but selfishly I think that the 2-seed path works best for my bachelor party plans/schedule.

I land in San Diego at 11:00 am PST, so I could head straight to the bar with the other guys who are early and catch the Quarterfinals game, and then our Semifinals game would be going on pretty much right as we finish Saturday morning golf and have some down time.

P.S. The "~" indicates I am guessing on the game times ... they are officially listed as "25 minutes after the previous game."

BretMyBeachHouse · Feb 28, 2022

I'm not understanding the b!t@hing. Am I missing something here? We lost a game. At home.

Further, these rankings are an aggregation of opinions. That incorporates all sorts of more subtle factors into the rankings.

USC went 2-0 and passed us.
Tennessee went 2-0 and passed us.
Arkansas went 2-0 and passed us.
UConn went 2-0 and passed us.
St. Mary's went 2-0 and passed us.

alamocityillini · Feb 28, 2022

Manual3for4peat · Feb 28, 2022

Bigtex said:
but only UCLA and Illinois had losses that were ranked 10-25 so everyone around us won twice.

Ok. That makes me feel a bit better then. I still think we are underwood because of Marquette and Cincy without Kofi and his first game back when everyone was sick.

We had two preseason all Americans miss twenty combined games and get no love. Smdh.

Manual3for4peat · Feb 28, 2022

alamocityillini said:
View attachment 15846

Give me this region all damn day.

Chieeeeffffff · Feb 28, 2022

alamocityillini said:
View attachment 15846

Interesting Purdue is clinging to a 2 seed here. I imagine we flip flop with Wisky if they get pounded and we win out this week.

I’ve warmed more to the idea of a 4/5 seed provided that we are not in Arizona’s region and these ones remain locked in. It looks like we would be the best or second best four at worst (if we finish strong), so that would give us Kansas or Baylor. I think we could beat both of them. I also think Auburn and Kentucky would give us more issues than either of them and they seem destined for the 2 line.

InDaAZ · Feb 28, 2022

pruman91 said:
NCAA College Basketball Rankings: AP Top 25 Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA men's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2023-24 season.

apnews.com

AP Top-25: We can argue about the polls until we’re orange & blue in the face, but we are the highest ranked 8-loss team. Outside of our echo chamber, many would consider that generous. Now, let’s go out and string together some wins…

Manual3for4peat · Feb 28, 2022

Chieeeeffffff said:
Interesting Purdue is clinging to a 2 seed here. I imagine we flip flop with Wisky if they get pounded and we win out this week.

I’ve warmed more to the idea of a 4/5 seed provided that we are not in Arizona’s region and these ones remain locked in. It looks like we would be the best or second best four at worst (if we finish strong), so that would give us Kansas or Baylor. I think we could beat both of them. I also think Auburn and Kentucky would give us more issues than either of them and they seem destined for the 2 line.

Kansas has nothing for Kofi.

We’d have to contain Braun and Obaji(sp?)

They might be the best potential one matchup for us.

BretMyBeachHouse · Feb 28, 2022

80 different schools have appeared in the Sweet 16 since the last time we did in 2005. We're not consistent enough for me to even dream about a long run. I just want to see that monkey off our back and start a long run of appearances in the 2nd and 3rd weekend.

Emerson Bigguns · Feb 28, 2022

InDaAZ said:
AP Top-25: We can argue about the polls until we’re orange & blue in the face, but we are the highest ranked 8-loss team. Outside of our echo chamber, many would consider that generous. Now, let’s go out and string together some wins…

The only ones that continue to mystify me are the teams in front of us from the Big East. Nova and Providence are solid, but unspectacular teams. The Big East in general just isn't very good IMO.
The only win Nova has against a top 10 team was at Providence when the Friars were inexplicably ranked 8th. Providence's best win was a 5 point victory in Madison against the Johnny Davis-less Badgers the 2nd week of the season.
They just don't pass the eye test for me.

Johnny Lawrence · Feb 28, 2022

CubsIlliniFan said:
It would be nice to see that scenario. But they are not going to do us any favors. We will get Kentucky, Kansas or Duke as the 2 seed if we are the 3 seed. I believe they will hand us KU or UK as there is a storyline to both. But we need to win out and get to the B1G final to have a chance for a three and we may need to win the tourney to get a high 3 Or low 2.

Well if we are a two seed and they are three seeds there's a 75% chance we all get one of them so I'd say you're more than likely to be correct.

the juiceman cometh · Feb 28, 2022

I'm not too upset about the ranking. We've been a .500 team over the last three weeks, haven't strung together two wins in a row since Feb. 5, and the teams around us in the rankings have been winning. We've got to string wins together if we want to keep a high ranking, that's just how it works.

Bigtex · Feb 28, 2022

BretMyBeachHouse said:
I'm not understanding the b!t@hing. Am I missing something here? We lost a game. At home.

Further, these rankings are an aggregation of opinions. That incorporates all sorts of more subtle factors into the rankings.

USC went 2-0 and passed us.
Tennessee went 2-0 and passed us.
Arkansas went 2-0 and passed us.
UConn went 2-0 and passed us.
St. Mary's went 2-0 and passed us.

Manual3for4peat said:
Ok. That makes me feel a bit better then. I still think we are underwood because of Marquette and Cincy without Kofi and his first game back when everyone was sick.

We had two preseason all Americans miss twenty combined games and get no love. Smdh.

IMO our pre conference results and missed games won't impact AP rankings but might be/should be considered by selection committee.

Another IMO, a healthy Illinois squad won't be a welcome addition in bracket by higher rated/ranked teams come selection Sunday!

samj_17 · Feb 28, 2022

Ap poll this week is terrible. No way Saint Mary’s, UCLA, or USC should be above us

CubsIlliniFan · Feb 28, 2022

The good news is that we are still high on the metrics. I doubt they give the polls any credibility when deciding seeds.

Rocky · Feb 28, 2022

Illini in Indiana said:
Illini can win out and maybe get a share of the B10 title. Then get to B10 championship game, and I think we are a solid 3 seed, win B10 tourney outside shot at a 2. IMO, not much difference between a 2 & 3, but a big difference between a 3 & 4.

According to Rhinophyma Rafferty, commentating at the beginning of the IL-MI game, we were "currently" projected as a 5 seed. Ceiling is likely a 3 seed with our record, but I agree we either have to go 5-0 or at least make the championship game and put up a great showing.

Rocky · Feb 28, 2022

DeonThomas said:
The Selection Committee will still have us as a 3-seed. We've gone 2-1 in Quad 1 games since their top 16 bracket 10 days ago. And both wins were on the road.

What you say makes sense. Forgetting the polls, which are bogus, there are all these "opinions" floating around quoted in the news and by commentators at games. Are there "leaks" from the selection committee since they put us at a # 3 seed? I would hope not.

chrisRunner7 · Feb 28, 2022

Rocky said:
What you say makes sense. Forgetting the polls, which are bogus, there are all these "opinions" floating around quoted in the news and by commentators at games. Are there "leaks" from the selection committee since they put us at a # 3 seed? I would hope not.

IMHO, the Committee seemed to be giving Illinois credit for injuries a few weeks ago when the top 16 seeds were announced. We were a four seed in the Bracket Matrix at that time despite a higher seed from the Committee.

Don't think the prognosticators (and definitely not the pollsters) are paying as much attention to injuries and absences throughout the season.

Two seed would be a long shot even if we win out, but I have a hard time believing we won't be a three seed in Milwaukee if we go 4-1 or 3-2 before the tournament.

lstewart53x3 · Feb 28, 2022

My guess:

Win the next 2: 3 seed
Win 1 of 2: 4 seed
Loss both: 5 seed (maybe 6 seed since PSU would be a bad loss).

DeonThomas · Feb 28, 2022

Rocky said:
What you say makes sense. Forgetting the polls, which are bogus, there are all these "opinions" floating around quoted in the news and by commentators at games. Are there "leaks" from the selection committee since they put us at a # 3 seed? I would hope not.

And recall -- the Selection Committee has explicitly stated that they take into account (grant some degree of leniency for) those losses that occur without star players.

ChiefIllinois · Feb 28, 2022

lstewart53x3 said:
My guess:

Win the next 2: 3 seed
Win 1 of 2: 4 seed
Loss both: 5 seed (maybe 6 seed since PSU would be a bad loss).

Heavily dependent on BTT results. Winning the next two probably only gaurantees a 4 seed (but a quarterfinals loss in the BTT is gonna hurt).

A championship game appearence is probbaly a requirement for a 3 seed, but not a guarantee.