I decided to compare our rosters from last year and this year to see if that talent level "on paper" was comparable:
2021-22 (247 rankings)
Usual Starters ... used "at Michigan" as my choice, given the circumstances
Trent Frazier - 4* (#109)
Alfonso Plummer - NR
Jacob Grandison - NR
Da'Monte Williams - 3* (#177)
Kofi Cockburn - 4* (#46)
Bench
Andre Curbelo - 4* (#47)
Coleman Hawkins - 3* (#168)
RJ Melendez - 4* (#94)
Luke Goode - 4* (#102)
Omar Payne - 4* (#45)
Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk - NR
Brandin Podziemski - 4* (#109)
Brandon Lieb - 3* (NR)
Here is how our classes have evolved since Underwood got here (counting transfers), going into this coming season:
2017 (#30) - 1 top 100 (4* #79 Mark Smith), 1 top 150 (4* #109 Frazier), 1 top 200 (3* #177 Da'Monte), 2 unranked (3* Eboigdobin, Vesel)
2018 (#25) - 1 top 50 (4* #32 Ayo), 1 top 150 (4* #118 Tevian Jones), 1 top 200 (3* #185 Griffin), 4 unranked (3* Feliz, 3* Giorgi, 3* Kane, 3* Higgs)
2019 (#69) - 1 top 50 (4* #46 Kofi), 3 unranked (3* Kouma, Hamlin, BBV)
2020 (#17) - 2 top 50 (4* #33 Miller, 4* #47 Curbelo), 1 top 200 (3* #168 Hawkins), 3 unranked (3* Lieb, Grandison, Hutch)
2021 (#24) - 1 top 50 (4* #45 Payne), 1 top 100 (4* #94 Melendez), 2 top 150 (4* #102 Goode, 4* #109 Podz), 1 unranked (Plummer)
2022 (#7) - 1 top 50 (5* #27 Skyy Clark), 3 top 100 (4* #54 Ty Rodgers, 4* #71 Jayden Epps, 4* #91 Dain Dainja), 1 top 150 (4* #102 Sencire Harris)
Let's be ultra conservative and say we don't add a single guard (we will, I'm guessing) and get the DePaul guy (for simplicity's sake) or an equivalent talent in the transfer portal. This would be a guess at the starting lineup next year (sorry if I mess this up, I don't usually pay that close of attention to the roster matrix):
2022-23 (247 rankings)
Starters
Skyy Clark - 5* (#27)
RJ Melendez - 4* (#94)
Coleman Hawkins - 3* (#168)
Deivi Jones - 3* (#144)
Dain Dainja - 4* (#91)
Bench
Ty Rodgers - 4* (#54)
Jayden Epps - 4* (#91)
Luke Goode - 4* (#102)
Sencire Harris - 4* (#102)
Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk - NR
Brandon Lieb - 3* (NR)
Obviously, rankings don't tell the whole story. Frazier significantly outplayed his ranking, and Williams provided us with stuff that can't be boiled down so easily to pen and paper. Meanwhile, Curbelo's future is yet to be written, and Payne has proven to be a bit of a letdown, to say the least. Additionally, I would argue Hawkins and Melendez look to be top 75 or top 50
talents right now who just need to mature and work on some things. However, just on paper:
2021-22: 0 top 30 players, 3 top 50 players, 4 top 100 players, 6 top 150 players; 0 five stars, 7 four stars, 3 three stars
- Of note, 2 of our top 50 players came off the bench, and one barely played (Payne).
2022-23: 1 top 30 player, 1 top 50 player, 5 top 100 players, 8 top 150 players
- Of note, again, that Melendez and Hawkins appear severely underranked not just from a production standpoint (ala 'Monte), but from a
talent perspective ... JMO, of course.
BOTTOM LINE?
Once I can add in my own subjectivity, I think next year's team will simply be more talented. I love the guys we are losing, but after watching this year's Tournament ... the way to win in March is by piling up on top 100 players year after year. We are FINALLY doing that. Ayo and Kofi anchored our early classes in a way that I feel like we aren't relying on as much going forward. This year's team might lose a Marquette-type game and a Cincinnati-type beatdown early, and they might not have the consistency yet by January to repeat as Big Ten champs ... but I think our ceiling might be higher in March. If Rodgers and Epps can step into true production roles as the season progresses, that is just gravy to me.
If we can add another impact transfer, as some insiders are suggesting ... Illini Basketball is truly entering a 2001-2006 phase again.